Olive branch from North Korea
By Choi Sung-jin
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Many observers of international politics, here and abroad, have said 2018 would be a crucial year for the Korean Peninsula.
Nearly one month has passed since the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency reportedly forecasted North Korea would complete its intercontinental ballistic missile system “in three months.”
It means a military conflict might occur between the two Koreas when spring comes. Or Washington and Pyongyang will try to find a negotiated settlement of the nuclear crisis excluding Seoul. Such a moment may come not long after the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics in late February.
On Monday, North Korean Kim Jong-un delivered a New Year’s speech striking a conciliatory note about inter-Korean ties and the Olympics.
Kim said the North had achieved its longtime goal of becoming a nuclear power and boasted he had a nuclear button on his desk, but vowed not to attack the United States unless threatened. The unexpected part came when Kim called for urgent dialogue with South Korea to discuss ways to improve ties and ease military tension on the divided peninsula.
The dramatic shift in Kim’s tone and policy is raising questions about the motives of the young dictator who has ruled the communist dynasty for six years.
Has North Korea really completed its long-cherished goal of establishing a modern nuclear power and turned toward the tactics of dialogue? Or is Pyongyang suffering so much from the U.S.-led U.N. economic sanctions that it has no other options but to seek an escape by restoring amity with South Korea, or both?
Whatever the reasons behind the North’s sudden change, Cheong Wa Dae appears to be trying hard not to look overjoyed. President Moon Jae-in has made persistent calls for inter-Korean rapprochement, believing better ties between the Koreas could help solve the nuclear problem, too.
Now that Kim has expressed a willingness to send a delegation to the Winter Games, officials from the two sides are expected to sit down together soon to discuss North Korea’s participation in the Olympics, in “highly politicized” sports talks.
Kim seems to have made a positive response to Moon’s proposal to postpone annual joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S., at least until after the Winter Games are over.
Or inter-Korean hawks may be right to say that Pyongyang is trying to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington and between conservatives and liberals in the South. Deepening such suspicion were the two significant preconditions Kim put forth for improved ties between the Koreas ― the discontinuation, not just postponement, of the joint military drills and withdrawal of the U.S. strategic assets, i.e., the nuclear umbrella from South Korea.
Aside from political propaganda, however, there should be no reasons for Seoul to remain reluctant. Cheong Wa Dae was right to respond with a “cautious welcome,” while evaluating Kim’s speech as an occasion to “tip the balance.” To prove it is serious, Pyongyang should do the same ― stop, not just put off, nuclear and missile tests even after the winter Olympics.
The North also ought to cease to make nuclear blackmailing against the South. Now is the time for Pyongyang to show with actions. Only when South Koreans realize the North has sincere intentions to defuse tension, will the “simultaneous suspension” of annual war games and nuclear development programs become a reality.
Few other people in the world might be greeting 2018 with a more acute sense of insecurity than Koreans. U.S. politicians and journalists have been increasingly talking about the possibility of a pre-emptive strike on North Korean nuclear facilities, which could reduce the entire peninsula to ashes and decimate Koreans, whether living in the North or the South.
That President Moon Jae-in and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping pledged “to never allow any war to happen” on the peninsula reversely indicates their suspicion that Washington is “genuinely” inclined to use military options to keep Pyongyang from developing nuclear-tipped ICBMs that can reach anywhere on the U.S. mainland. Moreover, few can rule out the possibility of an accidental blunder turning into a catastrophe.
Most urgent is to regain trust lost between the parties involved. President Moon has emphasized the need for Seoul to be in the driver’s seat in solving the nuclear crisis on which the fate of all Koreans lies. His national security team has fallen short of explicitly saying South Korea should play the role of a “balancer” in Northeast Asia, either.
The time is long past for the South Korean government, however, to express its opposition to a military solution and act as a bridge between the U.S. and North Korea based on brisk talks and exchanges with the North. The Moon administration needs to send a special envoy to Pyongyang to restore ties severed during nearly a decade of conservative governments in the South.
The first step in this direction will be the successful hosting of the Winter Olympics with the attendance of North Korean athletes. Seoul ought to accept the olive branch from Pyongyang with guarded optimism.
Choi Sung-jin is a Korea Times columnist. Contact him at choisj1955@naver.com.