Donald Trump is new Park Geun-hye
By Stephen Costello
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President Trump was headed in this direction from the beginning. The only questions were when he would get here, and how bad it would be. Well, here we are, and it is pretty bad. As was the case with former South Korean President Park Geun-hye, impeached five months ago and imprisoned, Trump has now made getting him out of office the most important goal for the U.S. political/social system. The best case for this can be found in today’s Washington Post, by one of America’s best public intellectuals and foreign policy thinkers, David Rothkopf. His article, “Trump Must Go” makes explicit what has been becoming clear for the past six months.
For Koreans and Northeast Asians there are several things to think about as the U.S. goes through the next months and years of its political drama. Koreans, in particular, know something about living with corrupt and dictatorial governments. But to paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, each bad government is bad in its own way. And each society and its leaders will react in their own different ways. Many Americans have been envious of the remarkable courage, focus, organizational ability and determination of the 17 million people who came out in Gwanghwamun Square for 11 Saturdays in a row, pushing their system to eject former President Park.
It may well be that the U.S. system also needs the energy of millions of demonstrators to force the legal structures to do what they must. Those legal, institutional and political structures will certainly be tested in ways not seen for a generation _ at least since the resignation of President Richard Nixon almost exactly 43 years ago today. We also have our own sources of civic strength, and they too will now be increasingly called upon.
It’s time for America’s friends to stand up and help.
The U.S. crisis is unique partly because it impacts people and governments around the globe, not just at home. As we have seen, it directly affects South and North Korea, China and Japan. The risk of conflict or war over Korea was never great, but the effects of destabilization, of failing to take responsibility for some of the most dangerous dynamics at work in this region, are massive and ongoing.Because of this, particularly thoughtful reactions are called for from U.S. friends and allies, and from all leaders.
Some are speaking up, both about President Trump’s dangerous and counter-productive threats and refusal to talk to the North Koreans, and about his failure to denounce racists and anti-immigrant forces in the U.S. The Chinese and German presidents, the EU, Canadian leaders have all been clear in their statements.
Korean President Moon Jae-in may feel he should try to work with the U.S. administration, because the stakes for the peninsula are so high, and this prevents him from speaking hard truths to Trump. That strategy always depended upon a degree of strategic wisdom and purpose from the White House. But wisdom and purpose have been absent from the U.S. position for years. President Moon has bent over backwards trying to be a good ally, but the time for a reassessment has come.
Trump administration policy directly blocks all negotiations with North Korea, and blocks South Korea from any role except following U.S. policy. It was intended to do so. This reality makes the Korean president’s position untenable. Any longtime ally acting as a friend to the U.S. must confront its self-destructive and counter-productive policies. That is what leadership means today, and it’s also what friendship to the U.S. means today. The most involved Americans would welcome this. Moon’s statement that Trump has promised him there will be no first strike is nice, but it is empty. There never would have been such a strike. The Chinese and Russians have been clear and public about this.
It is up to Americans to deal with their corrupt and destructive president. As Koreans know, no one else has the right or responsibility to do so. This will take some time, during which the U.S. capacity to help solve the North Korea puzzle, already small, will continue to shrink. If the U.S. is to play any constructive role at all in coming years, it will have to be led there.
The time for the Korean government to decide on a durable policy direction is now.
Seoul can scale back or reduce the ROK-U.S. military exercises in coming days. Together with China and Russia, it can press Pyongyang to freeze its missile and nuclear programs. It can then gather a coalition of powers, many of them waiting for someone to organize this effort, to jointly spell out a roadmap for returning to security, diplomatic engagement and economic development in Northeast Asia.
The U.S.’s global pressure and isolation campaign will have to stop, and unconditional talks with North Korea will have to begin. Capping and rolling back DPRK weapons programs will be on the table, along with an end to the Korean War and other logical goals. A group of national leaders, organized by Seoul, can present this initiative to President Trump at the U.N. General Assembly in New York next month. A list of benefits to him and the U.S. could be colorfully described. Trump could still refuse to help, but the initiative would continue.
The Chinese, Japanese, Russians and U.N. all have good reasons to welcome Seoul’s lead on breaking this impasse. And yet none of them has the legitimacy, interest, flexibility and capacity to take the lead. Only South Korea does, and it can expect broad and robust cooperation.
For three months, the government’s leverage has drained away, and nothing it has said or done has moved any party. Moon keeps saying he wants to lead. Now he could actually do so.
Stephen Costello is a producer of AsiaEast, a web and broadcast-based policy roundtable focused on security, development and politics in Northeast Asia. He writes from Washington, D.C. He can be reached at scost55@gmail.com.