Tough talk on North Korea
By Ted Gover
While U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive “fire and fury” comments aimed at North Korea are headline grabbing, a cursory observation of American actions over the past month does not indicate an imminent war with the North.
Simply put, we have not seen measures by the U.S. military that would be necessary to prepare for war on the Korean peninsula. The 35,000 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, while a potent force, are meant to serve as what military planners refer to as a “tripwire,” the first line of defense that, if engaged, would trigger the intervention of American forces from Japan, Guam, Hawaii and the continental United States.
At present, there has been no buildup of extra U.S. military assets in the region.
The USS Ronald Reagan, the only U.S. aircraft carrier in the Asia-Pacific, is currently at a port in Yokosuka, Japan. Currently, there are no other U.S. aircraft carriers in the area. Additional U.S. Marines, soldiers and squadrons have not been deployed to the Pacific in any significant way, nor has there been a wide call back of personnel on emergency leave.
Beyond these, American military families have not been evacuated from South Korea, Japan, Saipan or Guam, nor has the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning to American citizens living in Northeast Asian countries.
In short, from the perspective of military planning, there is nothing to indicate that a U.S. military operation is in the making.
Some argue that President Trump’s recent bellicose statements about North Korea are vintage Trump and ought to be taken seriously but not literally. They assert that he intended to convey to China that its continued inaction may result in U.S. military operations against the North, disrupting the region’s stability, upon which Beijing depends for its economic growth and security.
North Korea’s response to President Trump’s tough talk has been military threats to bomb the waters near Guam. It should be noted that while Guam is a U.S. territory of strategic value that hosts various U.S. military assets, North Korean carefully aimed its threats at it, not at cities on the U.S. mainland, perhaps to bluff and save face.
While President Trump rightly sees utility in some level of unpredictability stirred by his statements towards U.S. adversaries, it is important that this tactic not be overused, as U.S. allies in the Pacific and elsewhere will come to wonder whether or not Washington is serious with its strategic behavior, particularly if it does not follow through on its tough talk.
In the short term, however, President Trump’s threats towards Pyongyang may just avert miscalculation and support deterrence by clearly restating U.S. policy towards the defense of its allies and interests.
Ted Gover, Ph.D., is a political science instructor at Central Texas College, USMC Base Camp Pendleton, California. Write to amberjack_shoal@yahoo.com.