Moon's second challenge
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By Sah Dong-seok
There are few, if any, who doubt at this point that Moon Jae-in, former chairman of the main opposition Minjoo Party of Korea (MPK), is closest to Cheong Wa Dae in next year’s presidential election. Moon, who lost to President Park Geun-hye by a margin of 3.6 percentage points in the 2012 presidential race, is running second in most opinion polls after U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. But the odds appear very much in Moon’s favor.
First and foremost, questions still remain as to Ban’s willingness to seek power. He often hinted at running for president, but it’s still doubtful if he will actually do so after completing his job at the multinational body later this year. Choo Mi-ae, the MPK’s incumbent chairwoman, even asserted last week that the veteran diplomat won’t enter the race.
But if he throws his hat into the ring as a runner from the ruling party, Ban might give up midway through presidential campaigning in the face of indiscriminate attacks from the opposition.
Although one-and-a-half years remain before the end of the Park administration, people’s antipathy toward the 10-year conservative misrule seems to be running deep. Furthermore, given that the governing party is devoid of strong candidates except Ban, the argument that power will be turned over to the opposition sounds all the more convincing.
As things stand now, it’s hard to dispute that Moon, former chief of staff for the late President Roh Moo-hyun, will become the MPK’s presidential nominee. The party’s pro-Moon faction fared well in the April 13 parliamentary election and seized the party hegemony. So it’s natural to think that he will be chosen as the MPK’s standard-bearer in the upcoming presidential primary unless something extraordinary happens.
Nonetheless, not many confidently predict his victory in the presidential race. Moon and his confidants say the lawyer-turned-politician was ill-prepared during the last presidential campaign. This time, however, he can be the most qualified nominee through thorough and extensive preparations, according to Moon’s aides.
It might be naive though if he becomes overconfident or pompous merely because his faction seized control of the largest opposition party. Moon might follow in the footsteps of former governing party nominee Lee Hoi-chang who suffered back-to-back losses, carried away in triumph with his superiority in the initial stages of campaigning.
There are a multitude of hurdles he must clear to enter Cheong Wa Dae in the long run.
The most stinging criticism is that he may have limitations in expanding his support base. Critics say Moon will not fail to lose again, noting that the opposition failed to retake power in the last presidential election because of his own problem, which usually refers to the dearth of his personal attraction among voters.
In fact, the 2012 presidential race was a golden opportunity for the then opposition to seize power as then President Lee Myung-bak was struggling with an extreme lame-duck phenomenon. At the time, Moon earned 14.69 million votes, compared with President Park’s 15.77 million, and critics say if Moon had not been an opposition nominee, a change of power from conservatives to liberals would have been realized. This regret sounds all the more plausible, considering that Moon was the opposition’s unified candidate.
That’s why many pundits say he must be in desperate need of an experienced mentor like Rep. Kim Jong-in who led the MPK to victory in the April general election and was believed to pick up the slack for him. But Moon parted with Kim, who he recruited in person after several attempts to salvage his party that had been in tatters after Ahn Cheol-soo left to form a new political party. This might be decisive, considering that Moon needs to embrace more of the middle-of-the-road electorate who allegedly favor Rep. Kim’s pragmatism.
North Korea may emerge as a hindrance to his path toward presidency. As voters’ fear about the North’s nuclear and missile programs increases, public opinion could tilt toward conservatism when it comes to security in the run-up to the presidential election scheduled for December next year.
In fact, post-election research showed that voters widely viewed Moon’s party as being unstable in security with one out of five voters who didn’t support him citing his pro-North Korea, pro-leftist tendency as the reason. And this situation may remain the same next year, given that the MPK clearly opposes the deployment here of an American missile defense system, which is strongly supported by the public now.
That he lacks his trademark achievement or characteristics unlike recently elected presidents could matter too.
President Park undeniably benefitted much from the fact that she was the daughter of Park Chung-hee, the most revered former president. Lee Myung-bak won the 2007 presidential election easily thanks to his signature achievements such as the restoration of the Cheonggye Stream when he served as Seoul mayor. It is no secret that even Roh Moo-hyun, the late liberal president, owed much of his election to his long devotion to mitigating regional rivalry despite adversity.
What would the political landscape be around this time of next year? Nobody can tell, but it’s certain that the parties will have selected their respective nominees. And Moon might be among them.
But his success in the presidential race will be possible only when he is not blinded by self-righteousness, responds to the will of the people and dares to embrace more of them, even his political opponents.
The writer is the executive editor of The Korea Times. Contact him at sahds@ktimes.com.