US presidential election 2016
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By Tong Kim
The two Koreas have traditionally shown great interest in an American presidential election, because, depending on who is elected, it can affect U.S. policy on the Korean Peninsula. Next year’s presidential election is no exception, even if its outcome will not make much difference. No candidate has spoken of a radical departure from the current North Korea policy of the Obama administration.
Nevertheless, this election comes as Americans ― and their two major parties ― are clearly divided over many domestic and foreign policy issues, including Obamacare, the fight against terrorism, Planned Parenthood, accepting refugees from Syria, gun control, stopping Iran developing a nuclear weapon and how to defeat ISIS.
Hillary Clinton, a former first lady and a former secretary of state, appears as the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party, leading her main chaser Bernie Sanders, a senator from Vermont, by a comfortable margin. The so-called email scandals will not stop her way to nomination, unless the FBI accuses her of crimes.
By contrast, Republican contenders are in a long-haul primary process. It is uncertain, at this point, who will be the nominee at the end. Last Tuesday in Les Vegas, 12 Republican candidates participated in their fifth debate, focusing on security and foreign policy. Although there appeared to be no clear winner, some seem to have done better than others.
A fiery feud to discredit each other between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, both first-term senators respectively from Texas and Florida, and both second-generation Cuban Americans, was a highlight of the debate. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush’s attack on front-runner Donald Trump, a billionaire real estate mogul, provided the most animated moments, during which Trump downplayed Bush’s desperate disparage by saying simply, “I am 42, and you are 2,” meaning Trump had 42 percent of support in the polls and Bush only 2 percent.
Most pundits said that although Bush had the best performance so far that evening, he did “too little too late” to get back into the fight with other leading contenders ― Trump, Cruz, Rubio and Dr. Ben Carson ― one of whom is now viewed most likely to win the nomination. Other potentially viable contenders include Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey, Rand Paul, a senator from Kentucky, and John Kasich, governor of Ohio.
Carson, a soft-spoken neurosurgeon, is still a likeable candidate who has been fluctuating between second and fourth in the polls. He is not seen as a likely nominee at the end of the game. Carly Fiorina, a former business executive and the only female Republican candidate, had better debates previously, but she has been struggling to bring up her support, like a few others, including John Kasich, who has the longest experience in government among the candidates.
The Republican primary appears as a contest between outsiders and insiders of the party establishment. This year is the year of outsiders. Many primary voters are angry with their party leadership, who did not deliver their promises from the previous congressional and gubernatorial elections. The Republican nomination may be determined by these angry voters, as seen in the surge of support for Trump.
Trump is an interesting figure. He does not spell out policies on specific issues, although he announced a tax-reform plan. It is true that Trump brought up the issue of immigration. Along with border security, immigration has become one of the most controversial topics because ISIS terrorists can enter the country to carry out attacks, as seen in San Bernardino recently.
Trump says he will build a wall on the border to stop illegal immigrants and will have Mexico pay for it. He said he would ship 11 million illegal aliens out of the country, many of whom have stayed here more than 10 years. But he did not say how he would do it. He also triggered controversies over the constitutionality of children born of illegal immigrants and of religious discrimination against Muslims.
Trump says he would bring back trillions of dollars kept abroad by American businesses and negotiate with the Chinese and the Japanese to reverse the losing trend of trade and investment. He seems to know very little about foreign policy, because he did not seem to understand what the nuclear triad (land, air and submarine-based nuclear capabilities) was during the latest debate.
As a measure to prevent terrorist attacks at home, Trump proposed a temporary ban on all Muslims entering the U.S., until “we find out what’s going on”. Whenever Trump has uttered controversial comments about women, Muslims or Latinos, or attacked his fellow candidates or a news outlet, his support has soared. Bill O’Reilly, of FOX News, called it “a brilliant strategy”. Charles Krauthammer a well-known political commentator calls it “demagogy”.
While Trump mentioned his concern about North Korea’s increasing nuclear development program, at one point he said the U.S. should not provide free defense for South Korea, which sells hundreds of thousands of cars to the American market. Fiorina and Carson revealed their limited knowledge of North Korea when they were asked what their reaction was to leader Kim Jong-un’s claim of having a hydrogen bomb.
By March, when South Carolina has its primary following Iowa and New Hampshire, the contest may be narrowed to two, three or four viable survivors. It is widely viewed that the Republican establishment is waiting for its favorite candidate, Rubio, or anyone but Trump, to surge as the front-runner.
If Trump is nominated, will he be able to defeat Clinton after alienating so many ethnic groups? What’s your take?
Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times. He is also a fellow at the Institute of Korean-American Studies.