Questions to ask candidates now
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By Stephen Costello
Choosing the right question is the beginning of wisdom. It can also be the beginning of strategic thinking. When watching and choosing political leaders, journalists and the public should demand long-term, integrated and realistic thinking and answers from prospective candidates and party leaders. Recent history shows that there is no substitute for having done the homework on issues, for travel and personal exchanges, for intellectual openness to new ideas, and for changing one’s mind or assumptions. As pretenders to political power, how should these individuals and political/policy organizations be held to account? How can the public have sufficient information to make a good judgment at election time? Some questions come to mind for those who can ask on behalf of the publics’ interests.
In the long term strategic view, it should be clear that Japanese and Korean interests rest critically on greater bilateral cooperation and integration.
This is a matter of fundamental state and public interests. Integration of regional diplomatic and economic development efforts will be at least as important as integration of defense and security capabilities. What are this vision’s component parts? What are political parties and civic groups saying? Which companies have the most to gain when projects like the Japan-Korea bridge/tunnel are finally launched?
Also in the long term strategic view,
the reunification of North and South Korea is the only stable future for the peninsula,
even if it takes decades and is for a long time informal, and based on a rigorous assessment of shared and overlapping interests. What are the alternatives if there is no reunification? Which obstacles can be overcome first? What are the necessary aspects of public debate and diplomacy that would allow for progress? What are proper roles for Japan, the U.S., China, the U.N.? Who should lead?
Is the current, status quo, official, public, government description of the U.S. role in Northeast Asia compelling?
Is it even coherent? Are there alternatives to a threat-based alliance structure for the U.S. in the region? Who is doing the fresh thinking about how to transition from a Cold War alliance structure to one that demonstrates both unshakable security/defense support and respect for new middle power independence and flexibility? Would more capable and self-confident U.S. allies such as South Korea, Japan and Australia allow for a lowering of tensions between China and the U.S. and between China and its neighbors to the East and South?
If the leading, most successful democracies in northeast Asia ― Japan, Korea, and Australia ― are to act as real “middle powers,” then they must demonstrate a new degree of independence
from often-changing and often-confused tactical and strategic leadership from the U.S. administration of the day. Such independence is based, paradoxically but realistically, on a strong and confident Korea-U.S. alliance. How can the newly-capable middle powers assume their responsibilities and play the expanded roles that the current situation cries out for? (Of course, Japan is not a middle power economically, as former Ambassador to Korea Thomas Hubbard reminds me in our video discussion. See the video at www.asiaeast.org)
How should Japan and South Korea structure their defense forces and industries so that security and stability are primary goals?
How can an un-ending regional arms race be avoided? What equipment and technologies will best ensure both a deterrent against aggression and enhanced capabilities for scenarios other than war? What concepts and public/diplomatic initiatives will serve the same goals? Who is showing leadership? Within this category, we must address the matters of Okinawa, missile defense, force structure, budgets, regional security structures and “what level of defense capability is enough?”
Competing and complementary economic, trade and investment structures are growing in the East Asian region.
What should Korea’s posture toward these different associations be? Beyond the U.S.-led TPP and ASEAN’s RCEP, how should Korea approach the different attempts to fund development and prevent instability? In this context, what are the different roles of strategic balancing and advantageous use of Korea’s economic might? (See Evan Feigenbaum, The New Asian Order, in Foreign Affairs Journal online: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/142843/evan-a-feigenbaum/the-new-asian-order
How will the democracies deal with China’s rise and its aggressive behavior?
Can diplomacy work to avoid a destabilizing arms race and increasing confrontation between China and the U.S.? On what basis should Korea assert itself and suggest solutions? Is there a role for existing or new Northeast Asia or East Asia structures, both economic and security/political? What should be the role of South Korea, Japan and the U.S. in this effort? (The U.S. role is forcefully examined by Zbigniew Brzezinski in our discussion. See www.asiaeast.org)
The question of nuclear/fossil fuels and green/renewable energies must be addressed by leaders today in the region.
Is the tension between the nuclear/fossil and renewable energy industries destructive or productive for the public good? How can new technologies change the terms of an argument? How can power shift in favor of long-term renewables? How will the debates over nuclear energy in Japan and Korea affect political calculations in these two countries?
Any serious and capable party or expected leader should be able to give thoughtful and sophisticated answers to these questions. No one can know everything, which is why personality, intellectual confidence and honesty are so critical. So are partners, running mates and past behavior. After all, in our democratic systems the President has extremely wide latitude to choose direction, personnel and national ambition, or a lack thereof. Let’s make sure someone asks the right questions this time.
Stephen Costello is producer of AsiaEast, a Web and broadcast-based policy roundtable focused on security, development and politics in Northeast Asia. He previously directed the Korea program at the Atlantic Council of the U.S. He writes from Washington, D.C. He can be contacted at cosetllos@asiaeast.org.