Great civil war of the west

Great conflicts often happen when established powers are challenged by new contenders. Economic strife and territorial disputes exacerbate this issue. History appears to be repeating itself today as Chinese people riot and posture militarily over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. We should thus recollect lessons from the last great period of conflict.

In 1912, the British Empire controlled about one-fifth of humanity and covered one-quarter of the world, and Europe had several emperors. Much of the rest of the world were their subjects. The arrangement worked well to feed industrial development, technological progress and population growth in Europe. These were the fruits of the Enlightenment and exploits from the Americas. This also coincided with unpleasant stories of sugar, silver, guano and a decline in population even in India.

This was the apex of European influence. Less than two years thereafter, events lead to what should have been a short conflict between rulers related by blood. World War I ultimately shattered monarchies and countries, started a Bolshevik revolution, and led to further collapse during World War II. Some have described this as the great civil war of the West.

With their colonial masters bankrupt from conflict, most of the rest of the world earned their freedom; some more peacefully, but most in desperate revolt. Many former colonies have since become richer, and regional income distribution in 2020 will be much like 1820 according to reports from Bridgewater Associates and the IMF.

In 1907, European powers were carving up the world into regions of hegemony. The diplomat Yi Jun could not get an audience to appeal for Korean sovereignty and committed suicide in the Hague. In 2012, Europeans come to Seoul for their bailout fund.

Korea now has independence and prosperity, but neither were inevitable. Other nations may squander this exceptional situation with conflict. Korea's national interest, however, will not be served by forgetting lessons of the past and faltering into a great war of the East.

J. Hong

Banker in New York City