Korea in 2050

By Lee Chang-sup

When Park Chung-hee ran the Internet-less South Korea through authoritarian rule 40 years ago, Alvin Toffler published a book called “Future Shock.” He expounded such arcane concepts as information overload and “prosumerism” (producers and consumers). The book sold six million copies worldwide.

He later expanded what were thought of as vague ideas in his next book “Third Wave” in a provocative and entertaining way. Four decades ago, he was quite controversial, for example, by predicting same-sex marriage. Two missing points in his prediction were human cloning and the paperless office.

To celebrate the 40th anniversary of the publication of Future Shock, his associates have published the 40 forces that will drive changes from now till 2050.

He, Bill Gates and Peter Drucker are arguably the three Americans who have had a significant impact on the world. The publication, titled “40” for the next 40 years, came from Toffler Associates, a consultancy dedicated to changing the world. If Koreans localize the predictions, they can see what may happen in Korea over the next four decades.

The report sees the emergence of megacities and population growth. Sadly, Korea and Japan may be the only Asian countries whose population will decline. Korea may no longer need megacities. Instead, the nation can export software for megacity projects. There is talk that except for inner Seoul, its suburbs will become slums populated by migrant workers.

It sees rogue nations like North Korea and Iran continuing to be an international irritant. Even Toffler does not know when North Korea will behave this way, or even whether it will continue to exist. North Korea may either be a mini-China, meaning that it may adopt Chinese-style economic reform and open door policy or be gone.

Hopefully, we can expect a reunified, democratic and capitalist Korea.

The report also sees massive migration of Muslims worldwide. This will not happen here. Rich Muslims may be interested in visiting Korea for shopping or spas and medical care, while or poor Muslims stay in Korea as workers. A massive influx of Muslims is a farfetched idea. Korea will be a nation of older natives and younger immigrants.

We must prepare for the disappearance of national pension and medical insurance as we know them today. The government may no longer prioritize spending on welfare due to the aging of baby boomers and the increased life expectancy. NGOs and companies, not the government, will cover spending for these services.

The report sees NGOs, religious groups, and “hyper-empowered” people as fast-growing non-state actors. They will significantly influence government and industry.

Philanthro-capitalists such as Bill Gates will increasingly exert influence and power on a global scale. In Korea, Lee Kun-hee, Chung Mong-koo, Choi Tae-won, Koo Bon-moo and their children are candidates for a Korean-version of these philathro-capitalists. Only when they become philanthropists, namely donating much of their fortunes in their lifetimes, not mercantilists, will people respect them.

In just three years, about 80 countries will hold presidential elections. The report predicts an increasing number of women will be in charge of national leadership. If the prediction is correct, the country will also see a woman leader in the near future.

The consultancy predicted enhancement of performance of people through bio-implants in keeping with advances in biotechnology. People can monitor their health through ubiquitous sensors. Implants or other means will help them generate immune responses and “medicines” within their bodies.

It predicted the possibility of hackers attacking human brain, through advances in “wild card” technologies. Cyber attacks on food supplies are also mentioned.

The associates coined the term cyberdust, a vast pool of information that sits on a server unanalyzed due to an increasing backlog. New automated tools must be developed to replace human-driven tasks, they said.

Winners will be the people and organizations who minimize high cost of “obsoledge,” (obsolete knowledge). Making decisions based on obsoledge will be a sure ticket to failure. The rate at which knowledge becomes obsoledge is accelerating. Knowledge workers will motor the economy as they generate a valuable source of capital.

White-collar workers will be able to do office work at any time, at any place, thanks to the proliferation of high-speed Internet connections, the growth of low-cost video conference technology and developments in transportation. This will not always be good news for salaried people as they may sometimes have to work day and night.

The consultancy predicts Brazil, China and India will become less U.S. and EU centric. In terms of the economy, the trend is convincing. In terms of science, technology and R&D, they could be like the next United States.

Successful companies and organizations will be the linkers of “answer seeker” to “problem solver” across the globe. Technologies will not always be developed in-house. Korea must brace for the dawning of the “Petabyte Age,” where data saturation is the norm.

Cheaper, smaller and nimbler surveillance devices will encroach upon privacy in an unprecedented way.

Samsung, Hanwha and Taekwang, should know that it is almost impossible for any organization to hide improper actions. Whistleblowers and the proliferation of tools for analysis and interpretation will create a high-tech Big Brother society. Consumers will switch brands when producers are irresponsible, unreliable and unethical.

The Apple iPhone model will be the norm for successful companies. Apple is booming by creating value, not by creating products. Like online auction companies, prospering firms will host a market place where they connect consumers to producers for a fee.

China will continue to position itself as a long-term economic power-player around the globe. It will team with countries such as Brazil and India to reduce the use of the dollar and increase utilization of the yuan. China will partner with Venezuela and Africa to meet energy needs, including the import of a wide range of raw materials.

Smart power will be essential for economic development, nation-building and national security. The major challenge for local and national governments is how to catch up with this fast-changing society. Sometimes policymakers are unable to understand what's going on in society. Like other countries, Korea must be proactive in securing energy resources and combating climate change. The Arctic is a new gold mine for energy due to its buried Arctic mineral wealth and oil fields being revealed by icecap melting on the continent. This will surely fuel conflict.

Korea needs to take steps to diversify its import sources for rare-earth metals away from China.

It is time for Koreans to ponder over what Korea, and they will be like in 2050.

Lee Chang-sup is the chief editorial writer of The Korea Times. He can be reached at editorial@koreatimes.co.kr