NK Keeps Leverage in Stalemate
By Richard Saccone
U.S. officials have chosen a ``wait and see" approach toward North Korea's refusal to return to the six-party negotiations.
Patience might be preferred if the U.S. held the negotiating advantage but only the North benefits from further delay, providing it precious time to proceed with and perfect a uranium enrichment program while possibly conducting additional nuclear or missile tests.
However, North Korea's announcement of trying two American journalists adds a potential deadline for U.S. action.
When faced with an impasse, fundamental negotiating practice is to re-strengthen your relationship with the negotiating partner. Unfortunately for the U.S. it has no rapport with the North to strengthen.
Even worse than having none, its relationship with the North could more accurately be characterized as hostile.
Absent the ability to fall back on amicable relations, the next best technique is to offer alternatives of high interest to the opponent; in this case proposing discussion of food aid or power generation. Enticing the opponent into lesser areas of agreement prepares the stage for the more difficult ones.
Conversely, while it has worked elsewhere in the world, when dealing with North Korea, coercive diplomacy should not be an option.
For example, I have written in three different books that under no circumstance should our side issue public threats as it is almost always a deal killer provoking the North to ratchet up the confrontation.
Unfortunately, that is what the U.S. did recently when it warned the North there would be ``consequences" if it proceeded with another missile launch.
This is a blunder that only harms the U.S., already bargaining from a position of weakness. Ironically, the U.S. is trapped in the legacy of more than five decades of failed negotiations with North Korea, continuing to repeat the same mistakes, further demonstrating a failure to understand the mentality of its adversary.
It naturally follows that if U.S. officials are ignorant of the North; their negotiation strategy will remain inadequate. Sanctions and unenforceable threats have had little effect on the regime, which reinforces the argument not to issue them.
Condemning the North at the U.N. might make politicians feel good and play well politically, but such a course suffers a long history of not only producing failure but actually generating the opposite of the intended effect.
In other words, publicly condemning and threatening North Korea does not frighten it back to the negotiating table, in fact, it strengthens North Korean resolve to boycott such talks.
The U.S. can reach its goals by offering North Korea what it needs (food and energy) in exchange for what the U.S. wants, a verifiable halt to the North's nuclear program. Understandably, the depth of hostility between the two will require additional time and hard work to overcome, but the current policy is leading in the wrong direction.
Despite the skepticism, during phases of the Agreed Framework, North Korea demonstrated a willingness to work together given the proper environment and approach. Initially we agreed on numerous seemingly minor issues incrementally building a firm foundation that later allowed us to cooperate on much more demanding ones.
It seems we have forgotten the valuable lessons learned during one of the few periods of cooperation between our two countries.
Instead of the schoolyard solution of ``I'm not talking to you until you talk to me first" the U.S. must break the deadlock with creative solutions delivered firmly but friendly without insult. There are several ways to induce the North back to the table but threats or inaction is not among them.
Dr. Richard Saccone teaches international relations and political science at St. Vincent College in Latrobe, Pa. He has lived and worked in both North and South Korea for 14 years. He has written seven books on Korea including, ``Negotiating Your Way Through Korea, Negotiating With North Korea," and his most recent book, ``Living with the Enemy: Inside North Korea." Contact Dr. Saccone at richard.saccone@email.stvincent.edu.