Pakistan ― the Backstage of Chaos

By Pedro Jordao

Benazir Bhutto's assassination dramatically underlines Pakistan's vulnerabilities. The world is rightly concerned about fair democratic elections in Pakistan. But much more than formal democracy is at stake. The general elections are scheduled for Feb. 18.

Behind the misleading choreography of greedy political power disputes, Pakistan is home to threats that may be devastating to the country, the region and the world.

The visible turbulence is merely a pale version of what is frighteningly developing on the backstage. That is the main drama, a scary one.

Pakistan's population of 167 million is much bigger than that of Germany and France combined. It is the second-largest Islamic country, it fought several wars with India and the national literacy rate is only 50 percent.

Pakistan's army, almost dominated by military from the Punjab, President Pervez Musharraf's motherland, is the only big national institution which is modern and masters a high level of technological skills.

When, in the wake of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, international military forces intervened in Afghanistan, most of the Taliban and al-Qaida leadership took refuge in the mountainous Pakistani side of the border between both countries.

Despite reinforced government surveillance and the insurgency's lesser mobility, those rugged and tribal areas have become an epicenter in the chain of command of al-Qaida and the Taliban.

The extremists, suffering stepped up pressure by Musharraf, view him, even more than Bush, as their most feared enemy. For the radicals, getting rid of Musharraf has become an obsession and a factor of survival.

However, the Taliban were largely the creation of the Pakistani army and secret services (ISI) to counter the Soviet military occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s. It comes as no surprise that, since its birth, the main Taliban leaders have developed ties to high-ranking officials of Pakistan's military and intelligence agencies.

Some of those shady connections (and political empathy) still exist. Worse, Pakistan's army and ISI have become infiltrated by admirers of the Taliban and al-Qaida.

A general who headed the ISI is a friend of Taliban's leader, Mullah Omar, and a sympathizer of bin Laden. Three years ago he defended the idea of promoting nuclear proliferation among Islamic countries. On the other hand, al-Qaida, as with other terrorist organizations, seeks new spectacular attacks on the world. The terrorist use of a nuclear weapon has been one of their most cherished goals for a long time.

A few weeks before the Sept.11 attacks bin-Laden personally met some of the main Pakistani nuclear technicians, to assess possible forms of cooperation aimed at allowing al-Qaida to manufacture one nuclear bomb.

Terrorists know that, although being a very complex task, it is possible to build a nuclear weapon. But they also know it may be less difficult to steal or buy one. However, they are thrilled by another possibility.

Pakistan is itself the only Muslim country that is a nuclear power, it's where al-Qaida and the Taliban extremists are anchored and it is through this country that the vast majority of the major international terrorist attacks have been planned and organized in recent years. The coincidences are obvious and the temptations are too big.

This country is not only a nuclear power but also a conventional military one. Pakistan controls an arsenal of many tens of nuclear weapons and the corresponding missiles, which, in practical terms, are controlled by the military, not by the political authorities.

For radicals, grabbing the power in Pakistan has become a secret goal, an unlikely but obsessing one. Controlling this country would mean access to strong and modern armed forces and to a substantial nuclear offensive capacity.

Amidst a generalized social chaos the military chain of command could be broken. Nuclear arms could vanish and later resurface in the worst hands in other spots of the world, with potentially Dantesque consequences, giving birth to a new global age of nuclear terrorism.

A deliberate aggression against nuclear-armed India could ignite the region and drag the world into war. In such a sudden conflict between Pakistan and India, if each country launched only 5 nuclear bombs each over strategic cities, in a matter of hours almost 3 million people could die.

On the backstage of Pakistan's politics these risks are being addressed. The United States has already invested more than $100 million on improving the security conditions of Pakistani nuclear facilities and, in the perspective of an imminent collapse in favor of extremists, there are already discreet contingency plans to protect the nuclear arsenal or even to remove it from the country.

To induce a power collapse in Pakistan the extremists have limited options, beyond creating a climate of social mayhem and anarchy, in which they could hope for a coup supported by sympathizers who have infiltrated the military.

The extremists are sowing tensions inside the military ranks, whose younger members are more open to radical views. The recent period of intense turmoil and murderous violence in the country has a specific purpose within the scope of this hellish chaos strategy.

Additional interests are looming. Opium and heroin production in neighboring Afghanistan substantially increased in 2007, now amounting to 93 percent of the world's production.

The fabulous wealth generated by the drug business is also personally financing Taliban and al-Qaida leaders who have taken refuge in the Pakistani border. Musharraf's pressure is felt as a threat by them.

In fact, while the politicians in the current election process capture international attention, that reality is essentially epidemic, hiding much deeper but very dangerous threats.

Extremist insanity converges in Pakistan and throws a cloud of potential insecurity over the world. Preventing new international waves of radical violence makes it vital to contain and defeat them in this country.

To a large extent, the world's defense against global terrorism is being played out in Pakistan. If we win there, extremism will suffer a huge setback. But if we lose this challenge in Pakistan, we may all be at the doorsteps of hell.

It is important that the upcoming elections are fairly disputed, in order to provide badly needed political legitimacy and to widen the political basis of popular support. But it may be a danger if the politicians become, once again, focused on their greedy personal games of power, interests and vanity. Such mistakes would harm us all, for years or even decades.

Pedro Jordao is president of the Center for International Studies (CINT) in Portugal. He can be reached at jordao.pedro@gmail.com.