Make China Be Nice?
By Doug Bandow
The despotic regime in Myanmar has again proved itself to be among the most odious governments on earth. What to do? Attempts at ``smarter'' sanctions and penalties targeting leading junta members and their families probably are worth a try. But without an international consensus they are likely to fail.
Unfortunately, ousting the so-called State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is not a priority in Asia. Some of Myanmar's neighbors pay lip service to democracy in Yangon, but few are prepared to sacrifice economic or political advantage to encourage democracy.
The latest round of protests in Yangon have highlighted the futility of previous international democracy campaigns. Thus, some human rights advocates now are looking at China. If only the People's Republic of China (PRC) would force reform in Myanmar.
During the latest crisis, China called on the Myanmarese regime to ``show restraint.'' But Beijing was more concerned about stability than democracy.
Thus, human rights activists and pundits now want to pressure China. Many of them are urging Washington to threaten a boycott of next year's Olympic Games.
For instance, Washington Post columnist Fred Hiatt recently declared: ``Tell China that, as far as the United States is concerned, it can have its Olympic Games or it can have its regime in Myanmar. It can't have both.''
He added, ``If a threat to those Games ... could help tip the balance, then let the Games not begin. Some things matter more.''
British Labor MP Ann Clwyd pleaded: ``One of the things the rest of the world should do is say to China, `You either stop using your veto on the Security Council and do something to make this regime understand this can't go on any longer [or we will] boycott the Olympics.'''
Yet why single out Beijing? The Myanmarese dictatorship has more than its share of enablers. To start, the U.S. company Chevron, through its subsidiary Unocal, remains active in Myanmar. So are several European firms.
Thailand is the largest purchaser of Myanmarese products. The state electrical company Egat plans to construct dams in Myanmar.
Next on the list is India. Major exporters to Myanmar include Singapore, Malaysia, and South Korea.
None of these nations seems prepared to sacrifice its economic interests to punish the SPDC. Malaysian Foreign Minister Syed Hamid Albar dismissed proposals for ASEAN to suspend Myanmar's membership and impose economic sanctions.
Japan continues to provide humanitarian aid, even after the killing of a Japanese journalist during the recent demonstrations.
India's Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee says his country will not impose sanctions. In early October New Delhi inked a deal worth $150 million to explore Myanmarese gas reserves.
Of course, Beijing has substantial economic interests in Myanmar, with $1.4 billion in trade last year. Moreover, the Chinese military is improving Myanmar's harbors and has established an electronic listening post on Myanmar's Coco Islands. Beijing also hopes to build a $2 billion pipeline to improve access to Mideast oil.
But even if the Chinese government was willing to put all this at risk, it's not likely that the Myanmarese junta would yield. The SPDC long has accepted international isolation, foreign sanctions, pervasive poverty, and eternal war.
Moreover, Washington would not even be likely to convince any of its allies and friends to join in any Olympics boycott. China has greatly expanded its economic and diplomatic activities in recent years. China's ties have grown significantly even with American allies, such as Australia and South Korea.
In any case, targeting the Beijing for its policy towards Myanmar would have serious and far-reaching consequences. The U.S.-China bilateral plate is full. Denuclearization of North Korea remains incomplete. The Taiwan Strait remains tense.
Any United Nations action against Iran will require Chinese acquiescence. Beijing has been expanding its economic and diplomatic reach throughout East Asia.
The U.S. has pressed China to display greater transparency in reporting on its military expenditures. Washington is concerned about evidence of Chinese military espionage and reports of Chinese weapons ending up in the Taliban's hands in Afghanistan.
Moreover, over the longer term the U.S. and China must work to forge a peaceful and cooperative relationship. An Olympic boycott would unnecessarily poison official relations, risking bilateral cooperation in many areas.
A boycott also would fan popular hostility toward America. James Fallows of the Atlantic Monthly notes: ``China as a whole _ not just its government but also the great majority of its people _ would take such a boycott as a deeply hostile act.''
There is no simple answer to the tragedy in Myanmar. But bashing China is no answer. Washington must work with all of Myanmar's neighbors to forge an international package that mixes carrots and sticks to encourage the Myanmarese government to respect its own people.
Doug Bandow is the Robert A. Taft fellow at the American Conservative Defense Alliance and the author of ``Foreign Follies: America's New Global Empire'' (Xulon Press). He is a former special assistant to President Ronald Reagan.