Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
ANALYSIS What to expect from North Korea's upcoming party congress
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gives a speech during a ceremony marking the 78th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army in Pyongyang, Sunday, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
All eyes on whether Pyongyang will codify 'two hostile states' framework at 9th party congress
North Korea is set to convene a ruling Workers' Party congress later this month, a closely watched political gathering that will outline the country's military and foreign policy priorities throughout 2031, as well as the future of Kim Jong-un's leadership structure.
Held every five years, the congress is North Korea’s largest political event. Thousands of delegates from across the country gather in Pyongyang, where the leader reviews the past term and unveils a new five-year plan outlining domestic and foreign policy priorities.
The political bureau of the Central Committee of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea decided last week to open the ninth congress in late February, according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency.
While the exact date has not been disclosed, recent developments suggest that preparations are in the final stages. Kim has attended a series of ceremonies marking the completion of economic projects, moves seen as an effort to frame the upcoming congress as a celebratory milestone.
According to South Korea's Ministry of Unification, the gathering, which typically spans several days, is expected to assess the party's performance under the slogan of "self-reliance." It may also hail the regime's success in overcoming three major hardships over the past five years: the COVID-19 pandemic, international sanctions and natural disasters.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, front row third from left, attends the eighth ruling party congress in Pyongyang, Jan. 9, 2021, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
Foreign policy messages toward the United States and South Korea are likely to draw particular attention as speculation rises over renewed U.S.-North Korea talks.
"If there is a message to Washington during the congress, it is likely to reiterate its existing position rather than adopt a drastically different tone, as Pyongyang will be closely watching U.S. President Donald Trump's planned visit to China in April," Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, told The Korea Times.
Kim has previously signaled that he is open to meeting Trump on the condition that Washington abandons "its obsession with denuclearization and seeks peaceful coexistence based on reality."
How the upcoming party congress frames the future direction of inter-Korean relations is another focal point for officials in Seoul. Pyongyang has remained unresponsive to South Korea's repeated overtures for dialogue.
Attention is centered on whether the regime will formally institutionalize Kim's "two hostile states" theory of relations with South Korea.
Since late 2023, the North Korean leader has characterized inter-Korean ties as relations between two belligerent states, but the doctrine has not yet been codified. Observers say the upcoming congress could incorporate this concept into party rules, potentially paving the way for constitutional amendments.
At the same time, analysts suggest a more calibrated approach is possible.
"There is also the possibility that the party may omit the word 'hostile' while clearly defining the relationship as one between two separate states, as formally enshrining the term 'hostile' in the constitution could become a major obstacle to future U.S.-North Korea or inter-Korean dialogue," Yang said.
People walk in the street in Pyongyang, Jan. 20. AFP-Yonhap
On the domestic front, the congress may further elevate Kim's political stature. In the eighth party congress in 2021, he was elevated to the general secretary of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea.
Since 2024, North Korean state media have increasingly referred to him as the "head of state," fueling speculation that the title of "president" once held by his grandfather Kim Il-sung could be revived. Kim Il-sung served as president from 1972 until his death in 1994. In 1998, North Korea revised the constitution to abolish the position of presidency.
Given the reclusive regime's cautious approach to leadership titles, analysts view that reinstating the presidency and appointing the current leader to the post would carry implications beyond symbolism, potentially signaling the full-fledged consolidation of a "Kim Jong-un era."
The question of leadership succession also looms over the congress amid speculations that Kim's daughter, known as Ju-ae, could be his successor. Since first appearing at an official event in 2022, Ju-ae has frequently been seen alongside her father, reinforcing views that she is being groomed to succeed him.
"The upcoming congress is expected to be linked to efforts to solidify the succession issue as North Korea increasingly showcases Kim Ju-ae, normalizing the prospect of a fourth hereditary transfer of power," read a recent report by the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification.