Bahk Eun-ji has been with The Korea Times since 2012, building a career across multiple desks. She began at the Business Desk, where she conducted in-depth interviews with key figures in Korea's corporate world. Later, she moved to the Politics & City Desk, focusing on education policy and social affairs. She later served as team leader of the digital content team, leading curation efforts on the newspaper’s homepage and reshaping print stories for social media audiences to enhance digital reach. Now back on the Politics Desk, she covers the National Assembly and the Ministry of National Defense, with a renewed focus on political developments.
Foreign policy veteran explains why dialogue with N. Korea remains difficult
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, Feb. 27, 2019. Yonhap
By Bahk Eun-ji
Moon Chung-in warns expectations must be tempered as Pyongyang recalibrates its strategy
Moon Chung-in, James Laney distinguished professor at Yonsei University and former special adviser to then-President Moon Jae-in for foreign policy and national security, speaks during an interview with The Korea Times in Seoul, Jan. 28. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
The prospect of restarting dialogue with North Korea has resurfaced periodically, often driven by shifts in political leadership or diplomatic messaging.
But with inter-Korean engagement at a standstill, Moon Chung-in, a veteran security expert and longtime foreign policy adviser, said the current environment leaves little room for meaningful talks.
Speaking in an interview with The Korea Times, Moon said North Korea’s strategic calculations have hardened, making both inter-Korean dialogue and U.S.-North Korea talks far more difficult to revive than in previous periods.
Moon, a James Laney distinguished professor at Yonsei University and a former presidential adviser for foreign policy and national security, said Pyongyang now sees Washington, rather than Seoul, as its primary negotiating counterpart.
“If North Korea returns to the negotiating table, it will demand clear outcomes,” Moon said. “Those include recognition as a nuclear state, normalization of relations with the United States, and relief from sanctions. But the U.S. cannot realistically accept all of these demands at once.”
Moon said the failure of the 2019 Hanoi summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un continues to influence Pyongyang’s thinking. He said the breakdown of the meeting left North Korea deeply skeptical about reengaging without guarantees.
“There is still what I would call a Hanoi trauma,” Moon said. “From North Korea’s perspective, there is little incentive to return to the negotiating table unless tangible results are assured.”
Prospects for inter-Korean dialogue are even more constrained, Moon said, noting that North Korea has formally labelled South Korea a hostile state and cut off nearly all communication channels. Symbolic or technical measures, he added, are unlikely to alter Pyongyang’s broader strategy.
“Suspending loudspeaker broadcasts or softening rhetoric will not change North Korea’s strategic calculus,” Moon said, “The problem is structural, not tactical.”
When assessing the Lee Jae Myung administration’s North Korea policy, Moon said that the government’s intentions matter less than the external environment that shapes Pyongyang’s choices. He pointed out that North Korea currently has little incentive to engage, given that it can withstand pressure with the backing of Russia and China.
“It’s not that Seoul is unwilling to talk,” Moon said. “North Korea simply does not feel the need to respond.”
Moon also addressed discussions about greater strategic flexibility for U.S. Forces Korea, urging caution. He said any reduction in the visibility or permanence of U.S. military assets on the Korean Peninsula could be interpreted positively by Pyongyang.
“North Korea would welcome a weakening of fixed U.S. deployments,” Moon said, adding that such shifts could increase South Korea’s long-term security burden rather than reduce tensions.
According to Moon, the close linkage between U.S.-North Korea relations, inter-Korean ties and the U.S.-South Korea alliance leaves Seoul with limited independent leverage. Without progress between Washington and Pyongyang, he said, inter-Korean relations are unlikely to progress independently.
“South Korea’s role is important, but it has clear limits,” he said.
Moon cautioned, however, against dismissing dialogue altogether.
Instead of expecting rapid breakthroughs, he said that the current period should be viewed as a time for strategic preparation.
“This is not a time to force talks,” he said. “It is a time to understand the constraints and prepare for when conditions eventually change.”
Moon added that managing expectations would be essential if dialogue were to resume in the future.
“Patience and realism are key,” he said. “What matters now is being ready when opportunities emerge, not assuming they already exist.”
[This is the second of two articles based on an interview with Moon Chung-in, a James Laney distinguished professor at Yonsei University.]