Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
N. Korea touts nuclear submarine under construction as S. Korea's plan advances
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un conducts an on-site inspection of what the North claims is an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine under construction, in this photo released by Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency, Thursday. Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
Naval arms race between two Koreas could hinder Seoul's push to revive talks with Pyongyang, analysts say
North Korea has vowed to strengthen its nuclear submarine capabilities as South Korea advances plans to build a nuclear-powered submarine, a move analysts say could fuel a naval arms race between the two Koreas and complicate Seoul's push to revive peace talks.
According to the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Seoul's submarine plan would pose a direct threat to Pyongyang.
"Saying that the nuclear submarine development plan of the ROK, which Washington has agreed on at the solicitation of Seoul recently, will worsen the instability in the region of the Korean Peninsula, he stressed that the DPRK regards it as an offensive act severely violating its security and maritime sovereignty and a threat to its security that must be countered," KCNA reported, using acronyms for the Republic of Korea and Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the official names of South Korea and North Korea.
The North Korean leader made the remarks during a recent on-site inspection of an 8,700-ton nuclear-powered strategic guided missile submarine, currently under construction. He also said the nuclear armament of the navy had become an urgent task given what he described as a worsening security environment.
Observers said that Pyongyang is seeking to justify its own nuclear ambitions by pointing to Seoul's submarine initiatives.
"North Korea's nuclear submarine construction, which was officially announced at the 2021 Eighth Party Congress, appears to have made considerable progress," said Lim Eul-chul, an expert on North Korea at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University.
"The North's submarines are no longer a hypothetical threat but an emerging reality that could threaten not only South Korea but also the U.S. mainland," Lim added.
While South Korea is pursuing a submarine that would be fueled by a nuclear reactor but carry only conventional weapons, North Korea's submarine is believed to be capable of carrying ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads.
Photos released by KCNA suggest that the North's submarine is nearing completion. Analysts say that if the vessel is indeed an 8,700-ton-class submarine, it will likely use highly-enriched uranium with enrichment levels exceeding 90 percent. In that case, the reactor would not require refueling over the submarine’s operational lifetime.
In contrast, South Korea is expected to complete its first nuclear-powered submarine by around 2035, backed by U.S. support for nuclear fuel supplies. Seoul's planned design would rely on low-enriched uranium, at roughly 20 percent, requiring refueling at intervals of about 10 years.
A U.S. nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Greeneville, arrives at a naval base in the southeastern port city of Busan, Tuesday. Yonhap
Even so, experts say South Korea's technological advantages would ultimately undercut Pyongyang's strategy, which is believed to rely heavily on external assistance.
"Kim Jong-un may realize he has miscalculated if he observes superior South Korean technology, if North Korea experiences a major naval accident, or if support from Russia and China dries up before his ambitious projects are completed," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
Kim's latest message regarding his regime's nuclear capabilities appears to also be directed at Washington. His remarks came just days after the arrival of the U.S. nuclear-powered submarine USS Greeneville at Busan Naval Base on Tuesday.
Yang Moo-jin, former president of the University of North Korean Studies, commented that Pyongyang is trying to cement its nuclear-armed status as a precondition for any future talks with the U.S.
Yang also warned that North Korea’s framing of the issue as a nuclear submarine standoff between the two Koreas could become an obstacle to both U.S.-North Korea dialogue and Seoul’s attempts to improve inter-Korean relations.
The Lee Jae Myung government has pledged to step up efforts next year to achieve meaningful progress toward bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table.
Lee has also voiced support for U.S. President Donald Trump's willingness to reengage with Kim, with speculation intensifying that the two leaders could meet during Trump’s planned visit to China in April next year.