ANALYSIS N. Korea unlikely to respond to S. Korea's proposal for military talks: experts
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends a groundbreaking ceremony for a memorial museum in Pyongyang, Oct. 23, to honor its troops who died while fighting alongside Russian invasion forces in Ukraine, in this photo carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the following day. Yonhap
Pyongyang lashes out at Seoul's nuclear sub plan, remains silent on military talks proposal
North Korea is unlikely to respond to South Korea's proposal for military talks, analysts said Tuesday, undercutting the Lee Jae Myung administration's latest attempt at easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The proposal, announced Monday, is widely seen as South Korea's most assertive bid to revive inter-Korean dialogue since the president took office in June. But analysts said that Pyongyang has little incentive to treat Seoul as a serious negotiating partner, noting that the North’s policy toward the South remains unsettled.
The Ministry of National Defense formally proposed that military authorities from both sides meet to establish a mutually recognized baseline for the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) to prevent unintended clashes near the border. The offer follows several incidents in recent months in which North Korean soldiers crossed over to the southern side of the Demilitarized Zone.
This marks South Korea's first formal request for military talks with the North in seven years.
The Ministry of Unification confirmed Tuesday that North Korea has not responded to the hotline, often referred to as the "pink phone," which connects the United Nations Command with the North Korean military.
"We will not prejudge the outcome. We hope for a positive response from the North," a ministry official said during a closed-door briefing.
While officials in Seoul hope that military talks, if they take place, could ease tensions and reopen communication channels, analysts say Pyongyang shows few indications of engaging.
"There is no sign that the Kim Jong-un regime will change its policy of defining South Korea as its No. 1 enemy. Under these circumstances, the likelihood of Pyongyang engaging in military talks is very low," said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University.
"Moreover, with North Korean soldiers reinforcing barriers and barbed wire on their side of the DMZ, the North does not appear to have any intention of formally discussing boundary arrangements with the South," he added.
Kaepung County in North Korea's North Hwanghae Province is seen from a South Korean observatory in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, Oct. 28. Yonhap
Another sign of Pyongyang's unresponsiveness is that, after adopting an explicitly hostile policy toward the South in 2024, the Kim regime has abolished or downsized departments responsible for inter-Korean affairs.
"The North may also want to avoid unnecessary military clashes along the border. But with no functioning department or personnel left to manage relations with the South, it is difficult for Pyongyang to swiftly take action on South Korea's proposal for talks," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korean Institute for National Unification.
Instead of responding to the proposal for talks, North Korea lashed out at Washington's recent approval of South Korea's plan to build nuclear-powered submarines, warning Tuesday that it could trigger a "nuclear domino" effect in the region.
"The ROK's possession of a nuclear submarine is a strategic move toward its own nuclear weaponization, and this is bound to cause a 'nuclear domino phenomenon' in the region and spark a hot arms race,” read commentary carried by the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). ROK is short for "Republic of Korea," South Korea's official name.
The statement marked Pyongyang's first reaction to a joint fact sheet summarizing the trade and security outcomes of two summits between Lee and U.S. President Donald Trump in August and October. The fact sheet was released on Friday.
The unification ministry said the North's statement appeared relatively toned-down compared with its usual inflammatory rhetoric, with no direct comments targeting South Korean or U.S. leaders. It also cautioned against linking the statement to Seoul's proposal for military talks.
"Unlike the commentary released by KCNA, the [South Korean] government has no hostile or confrontational intentions toward the North and remains committed to easing tensions and rebuilding trust on the Korean Peninsula," Seoul's presidential office said in a statement. "Our security cooperation with the U.S. is aimed at strengthening defense and protecting national interests."