NK stokes anti-South Korea sentiment with drone incursion claim

A purported drone, in the large circle, and a pack of leaflets, in the small circle, are seen in this photo carried by the North's state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday. The regime claimed that South Korean drones scattered anti-North Korean leaflets over Pyongyang on three occasions on Oct. 3, 9 and 11. Yonhap

By Lee Hyo-jin

• Published Oct 13, 2024 4:48 PM KST
• Updated Oct 14, 2024 8:22 AM KST

North Korea's recent claim that South Korea infiltrated Pyongyang's airspace with unmanned aerial vehicles scattering anti-regime leaflets appears to be an effort to incite hostility toward the South, analysts said Sunday.

The Kim Jong-un regime, which is ramping up efforts to solidify the "two-state system" by portraying the two Koreas as hostile nations, seems to be using the alleged drone incursions as a propaganda tool.

In Sunday's edition of the Rodong Sinmun, North Korea's main newspaper for domestic audiences, the front page said that the "entire nation is in a furious volcano of rage" due to the alleged drone incursions.

The article featured belligerent rhetoric, quoting residents who described South Koreans as a "pack of mad dogs that will soon be smashed to death" and "malicious scum who should not be allowed to leave even a filthy piece of their corpses behind."

The paper also published a statement by Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, warning Seoul to "be prepared to pay the price for its repeated provocations." She also said further drone incursions would lead to a "horrible disaster."

The newspaper's statements came after the North's foreign ministry claimed late Friday evening that South Korea flew drones over Pyongyang and distributed anti-regime leaflets on three occasions this month, labeling these incidents as "severe political and military provocations." North Korean media outlets also disclosed photos of the so-called anti-Pyongyang leaflets.

The public disclosure of the leaflets marks a rare move for the regime, according to analysts, who said it typically blocks such anti-regime propaganda from reaching its citizens. Moreover, acknowledging the drone incursions to its domestic audience and de facto admitting a failure in air defense are both highly unusual for the secretive regime.

"If the drones truly infiltrated Pyongyang three times and spread the leaflets, the leadership would not have been able to hide it from residents. The North seems to be using this crisis as an opportunity to stir up anti-South Korea sentiment and portray South Koreans as evil, as part of their push for a two-state system," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.

In a speech on Oct. 7, the North Korean leader described the South as "abominable," saying it is "creepy to even be conscious of that country," and reiterated the notion that the Koreas are now two separate states. Last week, the regime announced plans to sever all railways and roads connecting to South Korea, signaling a physical cut-off from Seoul.

Lim Eul-chul, an expert on North Korea at Kyungnam University, noted that the timing of the drone incursions aligns with the North's efforts to heighten tensions as the regime prepares to amend its constitution to remove clauses on peaceful reunification.

"The Kim regime needed an issue to incite anti-South Korean sentiment among its people, and the drone incursions provided that opportunity," he said.

However, another key question remains: Who sent the drones if North Korea's claims are true?

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun initially denied having anything to do with the drone incursions after North Korea first raised the issue on Friday. However, the Joint Chiefs of Staff later said they could not confirm North Korea's claims, marking an ambiguous shift in the military's stance.

"It is impossible for the military to carry out operations without the minister's awareness. Also, if the military had deployed the drones in retaliation to the North's trash-laden balloons, the operation would have been conducted publicly," Cho said.

While some speculate that North Korea may have fabricated the incident, Cho said this is unlikely.

"It's too risky for the regime to stage such a provocation in the skies over Pyongyang, where the leadership resides. I suspect officials in charge of Pyongyang's air defense will face severe consequences for having failed to respond to the drones."

Some analysts suggest that civic groups in South Korea may be responsible for the alleged drone incursion.

These groups, composed primarily of North Korean defectors, have been sending anti-regime leaflets into the North for many years, using huge balloons to carry propaganda leaflets and USB drives containing South Korean pop music.

"I've heard that some civic groups have been seeking more effective ways to deliver the leaflets, as many balloons fail to reach North Korean territory. But this drone incident may involve lesser-known civic groups, as their leaflet designs are different from the typical ones we have seen before," Lim said.

He also expressed concerns that the drone saga could escalate inter-Korean tensions. "Unlike balloons, flying drones across the border could be seen as a violation of international law and the Korean Armistice Agreement," he said. "North Korea could leverage this incident to justify future provocations."

As to Kim Yo-jong's statement that warned Seoul to be prepared to pay for "provocations," the defense ministry said it reflects the anxiety felt by the dictatorial regime.

"North Korea, which has not even been able to properly identify the source of the so-called drone leaflet drop on Pyongyang, speaking of a 'horrible disaster' and being in an 'attack posture' is simply a reflection of the unease felt by the dictatorial regime," the ministry said. "North Korea is entirely responsible for the current situation. If it poses a threat to the safety of our citizens, that day will mark the end of the North Korean regime."