Lee Hyo-jin covers the Bank of Korea, the banking industry and broader financial news. Her previous beats include foreign affairs, North Korea and general reporting on Korean society.
Will North Korea agree to hold joint military drills with Russia?
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, front right, talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, left, during a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the armistice that halted fighting in the 1950-53 Korean War, on Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang, July 27, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency. AP-Yonhap
By Lee Hyo-jin
Moscow proposes Pyongyang to conduct joint military exercise: NIS
By Lee Hyo-jin
As Pyongyang moves to forge closer ties with Moscow, South Korea's spy agency suggested that Russia has proposed North Korea conduct joint military exercises. But analysts were divided on whether Pyongyang ― which has not held a combined military exercise with other nations since the end of the Cold War ― will accept the proposal.
South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) said, Thursday, that Moscow proposed Pyongyang conduct joint military drills and the related talks supposedly took place during Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's visit to Pyongyang last month when he met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“Intelligence reports show that Russia recently proposed conducting joint military exercises with North Korea along with trade in artillery shells and missiles. North Korea is speculated to have made requests to Russia on repairing aging military equipment and technology transfers,” Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the People Power Party, told reporters following a closed-door meeting with NIS officials.
However, analysts were split over whether North Korea will accept Russia's proposal.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, thought it unlikely Pyongyang would accept the request, despite growing signs of military cooperation between the two nations.
“The reclusive regime has never conducted joint military exercise with other nations since the end of the Korean War,” Park said. “A military exercise involving other countries would seriously undermine North Korea's decades-long principle of developing independent defense capabilities.”
Where and how the combined military training would be conducted is another issue making the scenario unlikely, he said.
“Joint military training between regional partners is usually conducted in the air or in the ocean, but the North Korean military is mainly focused on ground forces,” Park said.
North Korea fires a Hwasong-18 solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), July 12, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap
On the other hand, Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the state-run Korean Institute for Unification, viewed that there is some possibility of Pyongyang accepting Moscow's proposal on joint drills so as to demonstrate strengthened military cooperation between the two nations.
“Traditionally, China used to be North Korea's biggest ally, but in recent months, the North has been taking big steps to more closely align with Russia,” Cho said. “I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a joint exercise as the two allies are apparently seeking to open a 'new normal' in their military cooperation.”
Cho thought that the neighboring countries will continue to forge closer ties as Moscow is becoming more desperate for munitions in its war in Ukraine.
“North Korea is the only country it can turn to for additional supply as China is unlikely to provide weapons to Russia,” he said.
For North Korea, an increasingly isolated Russia means a good trading partner and political ally to confront the South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral alliance.
South Korea's spy agency is also closely monitoring whether Russia is transferring any nuclear and missile technology to North Korea.
Theodore Postol, a professor emeritus at MIT, suggested that North Korea's successful launch of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is likely the result of technical cooperation sourced to Russia.
“The reported physical dimensions and flight trajectory data of the Hwasong-18 is nearly identical to that of the Russian Topol-M ICBM,” he wrote in a report published on Beyond Parallel, a project of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.
“The sudden appearance of these advanced capabilities is difficult to explain without cooperation from the Russian government and its scientists,” Postol said.
However, Cho of the Korean Institute of Unification said that it is too early to conclude whether Russia has actually been transferring missile and nuclear-related technologies to North Korea.
“The sharing of such sensitive information does not occur even between allied nations with 'blood ties,' he said. “It is possible that the North just copied some of Russia's ICBM technologies.”