Time to talk to end N.Korea's nuke crisis

By Kim Jae-kyoung

The North Korea nuclear standoff is seemingly heading toward a dead end.

The exchange of bombastic rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is heightening the risk of military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho said Monday that Trump had declared war on his country and that Pyongyang has the right to shoot down U.S. bombers even if they are not in the North’s airspace.

On Tuesday, President Trump repeated his warnings of possible military action, saying, “Not a preferred option. But if we take that option, it will be devastating, I can tell you that, devastating for North Korea.”

War would be the worst-case scenario and in nobody’s interest. However, the U.S.-North Korea chicken game is increasing the chances of a miscalculation by Kim that could lead to a military conflict.

Against this backdrop, many analysts have said that now is the time to stop trading barbs and seek ways to start talks for a peaceful resolution.

“It's time to sit down and talk,” Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, told The Korea Times

The former U.S. mission manager for North Korea believes that China should set up exploratory talks between Washington and Pyongyang for the eventual resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue.

He said that China has leverage _ oil _ to bring the North back to negotiations. China currently provides over 90 percent of North Korea’s crude oil.

“Hopefully, China can get North Korea to do what they did in April 2003 and sit down with the U.S. to put all issues on the table,” he said, noting that those meetings created the six party talks process in 2003 among the two Koreas, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia.

DeTrani, who helped broker a 2005 agreement on North Korea’s nuclear program, said that an exploratory meeting with North Korea could determine if more formal negotiations should be pursued.

“Ideally, during these exploratory talks, North Korea would refrain from having another nuclear test or launching another missile,” he added. “This is the time to work at defusing the current tense situation.”

According to foreign media, including the Radio Free Asia (RFA), Thursday, former U.S. government officials and diplomats are expected to meet with officials from North Korea’s foreign ministry for informal talks in Europe in mid-October.

The behind-the-scene meetings are known to have been pursued by the North to make sense of Trump and his incoherent messages to Kim Jong-un.

Stephan Haggard, director of the Korea-Pacific Program at the University of California San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy, said that Trump’s inflammatory rhetoric about North Korea won’t help resolve the situation, calling for the two parties to regain composure.

“The fact that the U.S. President gives a speech in which he sounds like the dictator of North Korea is embarrassing. Clearly, the rhetoric has to be toned down,” he said.

He is particularly concerned about language that the U.S. will respond militarily to any “threat” other than to actual aggression, which he thinks suggests the possibility of preemption.

“U.S. strategy, at least as articulated by Secretary Tillerson, has emphasized both pressure and the opportunity for negotiations. However, too much attention has been focused on the first half of this equation and not enough on the second,” he said.

“The U.S., Russia, Japan, Korea and China need to coordinate around how talks might be structured.”

‘Sanctions alone not enough’

In order to defuse tension, it is important for the Trump administration to offer Kim Jong-un the option to return to unconditional negotiations.

In other words, the sanctions-focused approach is not destined to put an end to the North’s nuclear brinkmanship.

Pyongyang’s sixth and most powerful nuclear test in early September demonstrates that increasing pressure without seeking engagement has not been effective in reining in the reclusive country.

"Trump's policy toward North Korea thus far has been to threaten and to impose additional sanctions, but not to engage in any meaningful dialogue necessary to curb North Korean nuclear development. However, sanctions alone are not enough," said the Washington-based Arms Control Association (ACA).

Tightening pressure on North Korea and its allies, the U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday announced another round of economic sanctions against Pyongyang, blacklisting eight North Korean banks and 26 individuals in China, Russia, Libya and the United Arab Emirates.

The association suggested that the U.S. work with South Korea to develop an interim agreement with the North, which does not require preconditions to begin negotiations.

"An example would be the freeze-for-freeze proposal suggested by China and Russia, whereby North Korea would freeze ballistic missile testing in exchange for a freeze of some U.S.-South Korean military exercises," it said.

Analysts said that for a tangible outcome, a multilateral negotiation scheme is a more viable option since the issues are unique to each country involved.

"I think the six-party construct is still viable. It did produce the 2005 Joint Statement, a comprehensive approach to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” said DeTrani, the former director of East Asia operations at the CIA.

"It also facilitated bilateral discussions with North Korea and the respective countries _ South Korea, Japan and the U.S. _ toward normal diplomatic relations with North Korea."

Kim holds key

Balbiina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies, said that Kim holds the key to resolving the situation peacefully.

“It has to be through some sort of negotiations. But the North is the one that has to decide it wants to talk, not the U.S. or South Korea or anyone else,” she said, noting that for eight years under Obama, the North said no.

“If Kim Jong-un changes his mind, then the U.S. will talk to the North,” she said. “I have little hope that talks alone will ever resolve this problem. But talks may alleviate at least temporarily some of the current tensions.”

However, some experts strongly opposed the idea of seeking talks while Pyongyang continues its provocative actions.

“This is no time for talking. Rather, it’s time to double down on existing United Nations sanctions and strictly enforce the secondary North Korea sanctions that Trump announced last week,” said Sean King, senior vice president of Park Strategies.

“We have to keep up the pressure because the only way out of this mess is regime change, as Kim Jong-un won’t and can’t give up his nukes,” he added.