S. Korea must engage separately with Democratic Congress, Republican administration: experts

By Park Ji-won

• Published Nov 6, 2026 4:45 PM KST

US midterms complicate Seoul's diplomacy with Washington

A Democratic sweep in the U.S. midterm elections could complicate South Korea’s diplomacy and stall trade and nuclear negotiations with Washington, experts say, urging Seoul to adopt more sophisticated tactics.

At a roundtable titled “Shifts in U.S. foreign policy after the midterm elections — and how South Korea should navigate key issues in the Seoul-Washington alliance,” hosted by North East Asia Research (NEAR), a Seoul-based think tank, Cho Hyun-dong, former South Korean ambassador to the U.S., said diplomacy with Washington will become more challenging as Seoul must engage separately with the Democratic Congress and the Republican administration.

“Having previously dealt with a unified power structure where the Donald Trump administration and the Republican Party were in control, South Korea now faces a diplomatic landscape with more challenges than opportunities,” said Cho, who is also a chair professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

“If a weakened Trump administration faces stronger congressional oversight, implementing the joint fact sheet will become even more difficult and could take longer,” Cho said, adding Seoul needs to adopt a far more refined and multilayered diplomatic strategy toward Washington.

Lee Jae-min, a former diplomat and professor at Seoul National University School of Law, said the Democratic Party will also seek to benefit from pressuring U.S. allies, continuing a strategy that has been in place for more than a decade and will not change regardless of which party is in power.

“Using trade policy and tariffs as a key structure of national security — both to pressure allies and extract economic benefits — has been a consistent U.S. policy trend for over a decade,” Lee said. “This underlying trajectory is unlikely to change.”

He noted, however, that the political shift could provide Seoul with expanded room to maneuver on tariffs and U.S. investment policies, following years of volatility under the Trump administration.

Kim Byung-yeon, a chair professor at Seoul National University, also shared a similar view that the U.S. will not give up the current trend.

“While the Biden administration attracted U.S. investment by offering incentives, the current approach leverages tariffs to collect revenue while bringing in investment,” Kim said, adding that the next administration is not likely to abandon the tactic.

Experts expressed concerns that the nuclear negotiations between Seoul and Washington on building nuclear-powered submarines would face challenges as the Democratic Party takes a stronger position on nuclear nonproliferation policy.

Choi Byung-hyuk, an adjunct senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former deputy commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, stressed that Seoul may face greater hurdles in negotiations over nuclear-powered submarines and the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON).

“Negotiations will become more difficult because the Democratic Party strongly supports nonproliferation and extended deterrence,” Choi said.

“Regarding the OPCON transfer, Washington thinks this issue remains a core element of U.S.-China strategic competition. Even from a military standpoint, with North Korea exponentially expanding its nuclear arsenal and recently launching missiles capable of carrying cluster munitions, it won't be easy for Washington to hand over control to a South Korean military that lacks independent nuclear operational capabilities.”

Kim said Seoul should develop a comprehensive strategy for dealing with the incoming administration, which would take a more flexible approach.

“Under the incoming administration, a bottom-up diplomatic approach will offer greater flexibility and open up new opportunities, though significant risks remain,” Kim said, adding that the Lee Jae Myung administration should take advantage of the two years it will overlap with the incoming U.S. administration.

“South Korea’s position depends on defining a clear foreign policy and national security direction, which currently appears ambiguous. Charting the right path will require an integrated and comprehensive execution of our national capabilities.”

Regarding North Korea-U.S. talks, Song Min-soon, former minister of foreign affairs and trade, expected they would not take place anytime soon, as it is currently difficult to achieve an outcome that benefits both Pyongyang and Washington.

“Trump does not want his legacy to include a visit to Pyongyang, which possesses a nuclear arsenal, after attacking Iran for its nuclear capabilities,” Song said.

Song added that easing sanctions in exchange for a nuclear freeze could provide a framework for talks. Under that scenario, North Korea’s short-range nuclear forces targeting South Korea and Japan could pose a major threat, leaving South Korea facing a “triple whammy” — living under the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, potentially dealing with a U.S. administration that neglects its alliance commitments and being squeezed by the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry.

“If I were Kim Jong-un, I would remember the humiliation of taking a train all the way to Hanoi (to have no deal). He would never meet Trump outside North Korea. He would invite President Trump to Pyongyang instead,” Cho said.