Democratic sweep in US midterms dims prospects for Trump-Kim summit, analysts say
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands ahead of their first summit at the Capella Hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa Island, June 12, 2018. Newsis
Some expect Trump to press ahead, but Seoul could be sidelined even if talks resume
The Democrats’ victory in both the House and Senate in Tuesday's (local time) U.S. midterm elections has made a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un even less likely, analysts said Wednesday, though others argued that Trump’s tendency to shrug off political pressure means he may keep pursuing a meeting regardless.
A Trump-Kim meeting had been floated as a possible diplomatic surprise around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, scheduled for Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, China.
The two leaders met three times during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, but a fourth meeting was already in doubt before the elections, given Kim’s lukewarm response to renewed U.S. outreach. Some analysts said the prospect has also lost some of its appeal as a headline-grabbing event, with attention shifting to a possible U.S.-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen.
Ahn Chan-il, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said Democratic control of Congress could “force Trump to rethink his approach to Pyongyang and also make it harder for Seoul to advance its own policy of peaceful coexistence.”
“I think a Democratic victory would put serious brakes on both Trump’s efforts to meet Kim and the South Korean government’s outreach to North Korea,” Ahn said.
Shin Beom-chul, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said losing both chambers could “turn Trump into a lame duck earlier than expected.”
“Even if they meet for the sake of the event, there would be limits on what could follow,” Shin said. “Would Kim want to meet a weakened Trump?”
Shin noted the prospect of a U.S.-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen could matter more than the midterm result.
If Trump had a chance to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, the U.S. president “would have less reason to pursue a separate encounter with the North Korean leader.”
People react as Democrats win seats in the House and Senate during the 2026 midterm elections in Washington, D.C., Tuesday (local time). UPI-Yonhap
Others argued that closer congressional scrutiny of his administration and fewer allies on Capitol Hill could lead Trump to spend more time on foreign policy and step up his outreach to Kim and Xi.
Andrew Yeo, a professor of politics at the Catholic University of America, said Democratic efforts to scale back Trump’s war in the Middle East could draw attention away from North Korea.
But he said the decision to meet would still rest with the two leaders.
“If Kim Jong-un states that he’s prepared to meet Trump, Trump will make that meeting happen,” Yeo said.
Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff of the U.S. National Security Council and vice chair of the America First Policy Institute, said Democratic criticism of a Trump-Kim meeting could intensify, but he expected Trump to disregard it.
“I think Trump’s going to do what he wants to do,” Fleitz said.
Sean King, a senior vice president at Park Strategies, said pressure at home could make Trump more inclined to pursue personal diplomacy.
“Facing congressional investigations, and with fewer friends on Capitol Hill, President Trump is now sure to spend more time on foreign policy,” King said. “I suspect he’ll sadly go out of his way, even more than he already has, to court and placate the likes of Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping.”
U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands across the Military Demarcation Line at Panmunjeom, June 30, 2019, in a photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central Television the following day. The meeting followed two formal summits in Singapore, June 12, 2018, and Hanoi, Feb. 27, 2019. Newsis
Seoul’s role remains uncertain
The election results come as President Lee Jae Myung has urged Trump to serve as a “peacemaker” on the Korean Peninsula while offering himself as a “pacemaker," hoping U.S. outreach can create an opening for inter-Korean dialogue.
Ahn said Seoul could “find itself sidelined” even if the summit goes ahead, with Washington seeking to retain control of its dealings with Pyongyang.
“We should be very careful about assuming that better relations between the U.S. and North Korea will improve our own relations with the North,” he said.
Shin said the U.S. midterm elections would have little immediate effect on Lee’s outreach because Pyongyang was already unwilling to engage with Seoul.