Seoul faces tough Hormuz calculus ahead of Cho-Rubio talks
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun, left, poses with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio ahead of their talks held on the sidelines of a series of ministerial meetings related to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in Manila, July 22. Yonhap
Lee-Trump summit, US investment deals expected to top FM talks
Foreign Minister Cho Hyun is visiting Washington from Thursday to Saturday for talks with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, with the agenda spanning the potential Hormuz troop deployment, President Lee Jae Myung's possible sideline summit with U.S. President Donald Trump at the U.N. General Assembly and a range of unresolved bilateral issues — all against a backdrop of rising domestic opposition to any military commitment in the Middle East.
“Cho will hold a South Korea-U.S. Foreign Ministers' meeting on Friday to discuss a wide range of topics, including bilateral relations, issues on the Korean Peninsula and regional and global matters,” the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Wednesday.
The upcoming meeting will be their first formal bilateral session since February, when the two officials focused mainly on implementing the joint fact sheet under which Korea agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S. and Washington permitted Seoul to develop nuclear-powered submarines. The two held a brief pull-aside in Manila in July.
The session is expected to cover follow-up measures on bilateral economic and security agreements, including Korea's investment commitment and Washington's calls for Seoul to contribute to securing freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Details of the investment plan remain under negotiation, with Seoul this week postponing a planned parliamentary briefing on the issue.
The Hormuz issue has become particularly sensitive for the Lee administration as public opposition to a deployment grows. Since the U.S. began its war on Iran in February, the Trump administration has been stepping up pressure on Seoul to send troops to the strait and accelerate its U.S. investment commitments, increasingly linking the two as part of a broader package of demands.
A Gallup Korea survey released Friday showed 55 percent of respondents opposed sending troops to the strait, against 32 percent in support. The survey was conducted among 1,000 people aged 18 and above between Sept. 9-11. A separate National Barometer Survey of 1,002 adults conducted Monday through Wednesday found 45 percent opposed, while 36 percent favored troop deployment. Though the specific figures differ, both surveys point to roughly half or more of respondents opposing deployment.
Protesters take to the streets in front of the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, Tuesday, to oppose troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz. The placards read "We oppose U.S. pressure on Korea to deploy troops to the Strait of Hormuz" and "Stop war of aggression." Yonhap
Experts say Cho's Washington visit will serve primarily as a coordination session ahead of a potential Lee-Trump meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly next week, while also beginning to work through the details of any military contribution to the Hormuz mission.
“The primary talks between Cho and Rubio will likely be focusing a potential pull-aside summit between Lee and Trump during the U.N. General Assembly … Given the wide range of agendas on the table — such as the troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz and investments in the U.S. — this meeting serves as a chance to align positions and maintain dialogue, even if no major breakthroughs can be reached,” said Min Jeong-hun, professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.
Yonsei University professor Whang Taehee said the strength of domestic opposition could paradoxically work in Seoul's favor.
“Korea may package its troop deployment to the Strait of Hormuz alongside key economic and security issues. While Cho is expected to signal a positive stance, Seoul could leverage strong domestic pushback to negotiate a politically manageable deployment strategy, securing vital counter-concessions, such as firming up U.S. nuclear negotiations and gaining more favorable terms for Korean investments in the U.S.,” Whang said.
Min argued that avoiding deployment altogether remains the best outcome for Seoul, but said that if it becomes unavoidable, any contribution should be tightly scoped.
“While avoiding troop deployment is the best scenario, if it becomes inevitable, support should be confined to non-combat roles like maritime patrol aircraft and logistics,” Min said.
“This would give Trump the political narrative of a unified multinational coalition while keeping Korea's involvement as limited as possible. Also, active domestic debate and opposition must continue; demonstrating the difficulty of this compromise will strengthen Seoul's position in negotiating the deployment.”