Yi Whan-woo is a Korea Times journalist primarily covering finance. He writes in-depth articles on macroeconomy and financial markets and previously covered sports, politics, diplomacy and inter-Korean affairs, among others. Feel free to contact him at yistory@koreatimes.co.kr.
USFK presence, energy route dependence give Washington leverage over Seoul
President Lee Jae Myung speaks as he presides over a weekly Cabinet meeting at Government Complex Sejong, Tuesday. Yonhap
By Yi Whan-woo
Korea more vulnerable to Trump's Hormuz coalition pressure
South Korea may be more vulnerable than most U.S. allies to pressure to join a proposed coalition to police the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. security for the Korean Peninsula and the country’s reliance on the strait for energy shipments serving as instruments of U.S. influence.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been campaigning for countries to join efforts to reopen the strait, Monday (local time), highlighted U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) and the share of South Korea’s crude oil imports that pass through the strait, analysts said, Tuesday.
“You have to remember. We have 45,000 troops in Japan. We have 45,000 troops in South Korea. We have 45,000 ... 50,000 troops in Germany,” Trump said. “We defend all these countries.”
However, these figures differ from actual troop levels. The U.S. currently stations about 50,000 troops in Japan, 28,500 in Korea and roughly 35,000 in Germany.
With regard to countries’ percentage of crude oil imports transiting the Gulf shipping route, Trump said, “Japan gets 95 percent. China gets 90 percent. Many of the Europeans get quite a bit. South Korea gets 35 percent. So we want them to come and help us with the strait.”
Those figures also diverge from available data. According to the Korea Energy Economics Institute, the share of crude oil imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz stood at 62 percent for Korea, 69 percent for Japan and 49 percent for China as of 2024.
Trump has repeatedly mentioned South Korea, together with Japan, in connection to the proposed coalition, which began as a request and escalated into an apparent warning.
Since Feb. 28, Iran has effectively blockaded the strait through which about one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passes amid a widening conflict with the U.S. and Israel.
“It is possible to interpret that Trump’s remarks, although not logically or statistically precise, are aimed at exposing the level of dependence on the U.S. and therefore may unnerve South Korea more than most other allies,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior research fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification.
Shin Yul, a political science professor at Myongji University, said, “Trump’s actions could certainly prompt our government officials to toss and turn, feeling more uneasy than their counterparts from other allies, even though the proposed coalition is not targeting South Korea alone.”
Both analysts acknowledged that Trump's statistics, despite their inaccuracies, nevertheless reflect a push for Korea to participate.
“The incorrect citation of the statistics rather confirms Trump’s impulsive nature, as he has often done in the past, and suggests that a failure to comply could carry consequences,” Shin said.
Cho voiced a similar view, noting that Korea has more convincing reasons not to deploy warships that other allies, if defense logic were applied.
“Trump’s push for a coalition does not appear to take NATO obligations or the South Korea-U.S. defense treaty into account,” he said.
He noted that China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom were the five countries listed by Trump, Saturday, when he first requested the deployment of warships to the Strait of Hormuz, using the word “hopefully.”
Trump ramped up the pressure the following day, calling on them to “come in and protect their own territory,” given that the strait is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
“The South Korea-U.S. defense treaty does not contain a clause for automatic intervention in the event of a war, unlike NATO obligations,” Choi said, noting that both the U.S. and France are NATO members.
“Furthermore, the treaty explicitly limits its scope to the Pacific region, whereas the Strait of Hormuz falls outside that area.”