Talks on 'strategic flexibility' may be needed to avoid potential USFK drawdown: US expert
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, speaks during a session of the Korean Peninsula Symposium, hosted by Yonhap, June 26. Yonhap
South Korea may need to discuss with the United States allowing U.S. troops stationed on its soil to be deployed elsewhere in the region, despite the political sensitivity of the issue, if it wants to avoid a potential drawdown of American forces, a U.S. expert has said.
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, made the remarks, saying that the bilateral alliance could face growing strain under the second Donald Trump administration focusing more on deterring an assertive China, while seeking to reduce its contributions to protecting its allies.
"I do think a discussion about strategic flexibility is going to have to be part of this," Cooper said in an interview with Yonhap News Agency on Thursday. He was in Seoul to attend the Korean Peninsula Symposium, hosted by Yonhap.
"One way to manage the potential troop withdrawals from the Korean Peninsula is to be willing to discuss strategic flexibility. I understand that it's very politically risky here, but it's probably unavoidable, unless Seoul is willing to accept the loss of a significant number of personnel," Cooper said.
The "strategic flexibility," or potential relocation of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK), has resurfaced as Washington is working to craft a new defense strategy with a priority on deterring China's assertiveness and calls for allies to shoulder more for their own defense.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the Pentagon is considering withdrawing about 4,500 troops of the USFK, raising speculation that it could target a brigade-level unit.
The potential realignment of the USFK would mean a shift from the troops' traditional role of solely deterring North Korean threats on the Korean Peninsula.
Cooper saw the troop withdrawal issue as the "most urgent" alliance issue, noting a high probability of the Trump administration pulling its troops out of Korea.
"It has the potential to dramatically undermine the alliance. It's the one decision that has a very discrete outcome. The troops either come out or they stay," he noted.
While the Trump administration may reduce U.S. forces in South Korea, it could also demand that Seoul pay more to keep them stationed there, Cooper said, raising the prospect of renegotiating the Special Measures Agreement (SMA), which determines South Korea's share of the costs for maintaining the USFK.
"If the (Trump) administration doesn't think that Korea is as relevant on its priorities, then it could withdraw forces," he said.
To this end, Cooper suggested that South Korea should consider making some concessions to U.S. demands about renegotiating the SMA.
"I think the SMA is more likely to be an irritant in the relationship. Korea is probably going to have to give in to some U.S. requests on the SMA," he said.
Cooper also projected that the United States is likely to pressure South Korea to increase its defense spending, potentially up to 5 percent of its gross domestic product, as it has with its European allies.
"I realize that's going to be very politically problematic here, but one characteristic of the Trump administration is that they don't really focus much on domestic politics in foreign countries."
Cooper raised concern that Seoul and Washington could be facing a "risk of decoupling" in the alliance, given the Trump administration prioritizing engagement with Japan, the Philippines and Australia, and even India, over South Korea.
"The fundamental problem in the alliance is that policymakers in Washington don't think of South Korea as a key ally for their top priority in Asia," he said.
"Americans in the Trump administration feel that South Korea is just not relevant ... it might mean that the U.S. de-emphasizes the U.S.-ROK alliance," he said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
Given the current geopolitical climate, Cooper said it is important for the Lee Jae Myung government to stay "closely aligned" with Washington, particularly in high-level talks between the two governments.
"It would require a lot of communication, maybe not between Trump and Lee, but at least between their administrations at very senior levels," he said.
"The only solution is to talk very openly, but again, do that behind closed doors," he said.