S. Korea-US alliance should open new chapter for next 70 years, experts say
Panelists engage in discussion during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed “Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation,” at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. From left are Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, Lee Geun, professor of international politics at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, John Delury, professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, and Chun In-bum, former South Korean Army Lt. general and ex-commander of the Special Warfare Command. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
Fence-mending between Washington, Beijing puts Seoul in awkward position
By Lee Hyo-jin
Formed with the signing of the mutual defense treaty in 1953, the primary goal of the South Korea-U.S. alliance was to protect Seoul from possible North Korean attacks. Over the past 70 years, the bilateral ties have expanded to various areas including trade, technology and culture.
But with the international order becoming increasingly complex and unpredictable, experts called for more efforts from both sides and clear mutual goals to maintain the ironclad alliance throughout the next 70 decades.
Chun In-bum, former South Korean Army Lt. general and former commander of the Special Warfare Command, saw that Seoul should be more “open and honest” in its relations with Washington.
“We're on a strong path and everything is great ... (But) just because we have a great relationship with the U.S. now, it doesn't mean that we're going to have a great relationship in the next 70 years,” he said during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed “Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation,” Tuesday.
In order to maintain the ironclad alliance, he advised South Korea to be more “open and honest about its opinions,” based on the idea that the Asian nation is a unique ally to the U.S. bringing a special value.
“The alliance has a very strong history built up for 70 years with a clear purpose, or a raison d'etre, which is 1950,” said John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University Graduate School of International Studies, referring to the 1950-53 Korean War. “The beginning of this relationship was to ensure that the war never happens again.”
In that sense, he pointed out that the peaceful mood between the two Koreas as witnessed in 2018 during the previous Moon Jae-in government was destabilizing for the South Korea-U.S. alliance.
“I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic, but I do think that there are some big questions looming, like, 'We are going together, but to where exactly, and will the raison d'etre be sufficient to support it decade after decade?'”
Lee Geun, a professor of international politics at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, hoped the bilateral relationship might expand to multilateral or trilateral levels, which would enable South Korea to forge stronger partnerships with like-minded allies.
Meanwhile, the experts consider the latest agreement between U.S. and China that could stabilize the intensifying rivalry as potentially posing uncertainties to South Korea's foreign policy on China. Since the conservative Yoon Suk Yeol administration took office, Seoul has been closely aligning with Washington, to the displeasure of Beijing.
Delury said the recent visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping may “change the weather” in formal relationships between the two nations, at least for a while. The U.S.-China dynamics may now move in multiple directions simultaneously, giving confusing signals to the international community.
“Countries like (South) Korea, if they don't get the timing right, can suddenly be caught sticking their neck out. I think that's actually happening a little bit right now,” he said.
Panelists pose during a session of the 2023 Korea Times Forum themed “Korea-U.S. Alliance: Security & Space Cooperation,” at the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry in central Seoul, Tuesday. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
Lingering questions over US nuclear pledge
Among the agendas of the discussion was the Washington Declaration signed by Yoon and U.S. President Joe Biden in April. Under the agreement, the U.S. pledged to offer stronger extended deterrence and South Korea reaffirmed its stance as a non-nuclear state.
“I think there's no doubt about the capability of the U.S. But the issue is whether it has the willingness or resolve (to execute a nuclear deterrent),” Chun said.
“In plain terms, will the U.S. be willing to sacrifice New York or Washington, D.C. for Seoul? I personally think 'yes.' In fact, the U.S. has no choice. If they do not respond forcefully, their credibility will be shot.”
On the other hand, Lee said that South Korea should “go nuclear” to obtain a stronger and independent defense posture, but only if several conditions are met.
“I am not saying that we should go nuclear immediately,” he said, adding such a move would trigger economic sanctions from the international community and worsened relations with Washington. “But one of my biggest concerns is the failure of U.S. extended deterrence on the Taiwan Strait. In the case of a failure there, many (South) Koreans and strategists would not trust the extended deterrence, especially about the U.S.' resolve to use its nuclear weapons.”
Also, given that there is no democratic country in Asia with its own nuclear weapon, a nuclear-armed South Korea may be able to provide extended deterrence to its (democratic) Asian allies, Lee added.