Kang Seung-woo is the Business Desk editor at The Korea Times. Prior to this position, he covered politics, national affairs, finance and sports.
Long road ahead for normalization of Korea-Japan ties
President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pose during the RCEP Summit in Nonthaburi, Thailand, Nov. 4, 2019. / Korea Times file
By Kang Seung-woo
By Kang Seung-woo
When the Korean government temporarily suspended ending the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) with Japan three months ago, the decision painted a rosy outlook for the development of the soured relations between Seoul and Tokyo.
However, even though it has been more than 100 days since the GSOMIA was put on life support, Nov. 22, there are no signs to be seen of the two neighbors establishing a reconciliatory mood ― despite a summit between President Moon Jae-in and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, two foreign ministers' talks and other working-level meetings.
Rather, there are a myriad of pending issues including a costly trade war in connection with a row over wartime forced labor, casting a shadow over the prospect of the normalization of bilateral ties.
The biggest sticking point between the two countries is whether the legal process to liquidate Japanese firms' assets in Korea will start this year as a way to compensate Koreans who were forced to work for Japanese companies during the colonial era ― an order by Korea's Supreme Court in October 2018 that was strongly protested by the Abe administration.
The timing of the court-ordered liquidation has not yet been decided, but is highly likely to be no later than the first half of this year, leading the two nations' already rocky relationship to take another sharp turn for the worse.
Despite the concerns, the government is neither considering meddling in the judicial issue nor making a “political” decision.
During her Feb. 6 press conference, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said the government was not in a position to intervene in or predict the victims' plan to liquidate Japanese firms' local assets as a way to receive compensation, but has to prepare for every possible scenario.
“If the assets are liquidated, the government's diplomatic strategy and response will have to change,” she said.
Whether to reverse the decision on the military information-sharing agreement with Japan is also a hot-button issue.
On Feb. 15, Kang sat down with her Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany and urged him to take “tangible and earnest” measures to remove export curbs on Korea.
Last July, the Japanese government tightened controls on three key materials that Korean companies need to produce semiconductors and high definition screens ― a move seen as economic retaliation against the Supreme Court's ruling against the Japanese firms.
In response, Korea threatened to terminate the GSOMIA, but after a flurry of last-ditch diplomatic talks, it decided to “conditionally” suspend the expiration of the bilateral military intelligence pact that is renewed every year.
However, as no visible progress has been made so far, Korea has stepped up calls for Japan to quickly reverse the measures, including its removal of Korea from its list of preferred trading partners.
“GSOMIA is still a viable option for us. It currently remains sheathed,” a Cheong Wa Dae official said, Feb. 12.
“Our position remains firm that Japan should return the situation to the level before export regulations were imposed.”
Kang also told the press briefing that Korea has the right to “reactivate” the termination of the GSOMIA at any time.
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha shakes hands with her Japanese counterpart Toshimitsu Motegi during a meeting in San Francisco, Jan. 14. / Korea Times file
Given that the Japanese government is expected to remove the export controls after reaching a compromise on the forced labor issue, so the lone measure to get the bilateral relations back on track would be to strike a deal before the liquidation of the Japanese firms' assets.
In that respect, the political situation in both countries is not helping create the environment for an agreement to be reached. Ahead of the April 15 general election, Korea-Japan ties are likely to be high on the campaign agenda, with the ruling party expected to trigger diplomatic rows.
On Abe's side, the Japanese prime minister who is now in the hot seat over Japan's poor response to the coronavirus and scandals that are rocking his administration, may return to his old self, known for exploiting anti-Korea issues.
Nearly half of Korea's citizens approve of the GSOMIA termination, according to a recent survey.
A Realmeter poll that interviewed 504 people showed 44.9 percent of respondents were in favor of ending the military agreement, while 37.9 percent disagreed and 6.7 percent declined to answer.
In January, an NHK survey found that 67 percent of Japanese people said bilateral relations would not improve despite the Moon-Abe summit in December, with only 17 percent saying they would improve.