Rising tension in Korea benefits Abe
By Kim Hyo-jin
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations are seemingly giving a much-needed boost to Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe as his popularity is rebounding amid growing security concerns.
Abe is successfully capitalizing on public fears about possible attacks from North Korea to regain support, and this is becoming a crucial factor in Japanese domestic politics, analysts say.
His approval rating, which had been as low as 30 percent before the recent round of provocations, rebounded to 50 percent, according to local polls. Buoyed by this, Abe is seeking to dissolve the House of Representatives as early as Thursday for a snap general election in October.
If Abe succeeds in tightening his grip on power, he may use this momentum to attain his goal of revising the pacifist Constitution to make Japan a strong military power.
A sense of crisis and terror has spread among the Japanese since a North Korean intercontinental ballistic missile flew over the country’s northern island of Hokkaido, Aug. 29.
The Abe administration issued a warning via the country’s J-alert system a few minutes before the missile reached Japan’s territorial airspace, ordering people to evacuate to a sturdy building or basement.
About 20 minutes after the unprecedented alert, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga held an emergency press conference and harshly denounced Pyongyang while reassuring the people the missile launch caused no harm or damage.
The North’s provocations have played in favor of Abe, who holds a hard-line stance on the nuclear weapon-seeking country and wants a stronger Japanese military.
Amid the heightened bellicose rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Abe has launched all-out diplomatic efforts to take the lead on the North Korea issue.
He first had a phone call with Trump after the North’s sixth nuclear test, speaking afterward about close coordination with the United States. He also took the most active stance in denouncing the North than any other national leader at the latest United Nations General Assembly, with a 16-minute speech against the North’s nuclear and missile program.
A Sankei Shimbun newspaper analysis suggested Abe’s recent efforts were designed to appeal to Japanese voters before the general election.
The public’s attention has easily shifted from a recent scandal, where key figures in the Abe administration allegedly provided special favors to school operator Kake Educational Institution, run by a friend of Abe.
In a Sankei poll between Sept. 16 and 17, Abe’s approval rating stood at 50.3 percent, up 6 percentage points from the previous month. It was the first time in four months the figure was over 50 percent. This was a notable change given that polls in July showed his support plummeted to the 30-percent range following the corruption scandal.
With the confidence boost, Abe is pushing for a power-seeking plan in domestic politics. He said Monday he would dissolve the lower house at the start of an extraordinary Diet session Thursday and hold a snap election in October in a bid to strengthen his leadership. The decision came as Abe’s rival, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike, is seeking to launch a new political party.
Commentators say Abe hurried to exercise the authority of dissolving the lower house before Koike’s envisioned party settles. He also cannot risk being grilled by the opposition over the Kake scandal during the coming extraordinary session.
“It’s almost like they have a strategically cooperative partnership,” said Lee Won-deog, a professor of international studies at Kookmin University, referring to the leaders of Japan and North Korea. “With heightened provocations, there’s a growing call for strong leadership in Japan. The North Korea factor definitely encouraged Abe to make the bold decision.”
Public attention will be high if Abe’s Liberty Democratic Party (LDP) secures the two-thirds of parliamentary seats needed for a revision of the postwar pacifist Constitution. Abe proposed in May that the war-renouncing Article 9 be amended to include grounds for Japan’s Self-Defense Forces to operate overseas.
With Abe’s improved approval ratings, the LDP is pushing to make the revision a pledge in the general election.
Abe’s hawkish stance toward North Korea and push for constitutional revision are expected to complicate policy coordination with South Korea, analysts say.
“If the LDP secures an overwhelming victory and drives for a constitutional amendment, South Korea would become passive in security cooperation with Japan,” said Yang Kee-ho, a professor of Japanese studies at Sungkonghoe University. “Suspicions are already growing in Seoul that Abe is utilizing the North Korea factor for the constitutional revision. Such distrust would be a hurdle for bilateral policy cooperation.”
On Abe’s election strategy, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun newspaper said he is expected to stress the gap in crisis-handling capability between the ruling party and the opposition. It analyzed that the current situation, with the growing sense of crisis among the people, will work for the ruling party in the election.