China intensifying THAAD retaliation
By Yi Whan-woo
China may continue to ratchet up its retaliation against South Korea over Seoul’s decision to allow the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) battery here, analysts said Monday.
In what was likely a retaliatory maneuver last week, Beijing abruptly banned South Korean airlines from operating chartered flights between the two countries beginning this month. Chinese airlines also withdrew their plan to run chartered flights to Korea.
Beijing’s decision, made ahead of the busy travel season on the occasion of the Lunar New Year in late January, was the latest in a series of measures that are believed to be protests over the deployment of THAAD.
Analysts said China may expand its political attacks on Korea to foreign affairs and security policies, although it is likely to wait until after the presidential election here this year.
Beijing’s moves against the THAAD deployment initially centered on Chinese tourists to Korea and the Korean celebrities performing in China, but of late have included trade and business, such as tax audits and safety inspections of Lotte Group’s operations in Beijing, Chengdu, Shanghai and Shenyang.
Lotte exchanged its golf course in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, for other land to house the THAAD battery.
“I would say China bets that a candidate from the opposition bloc will win in Korea’s presidential election,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong Global University. “China wants to put pressure on the opposition to cancel the THAAD deployment if it takes over the government.”
Fearing China’s protests, the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) and the two minor opposition parties — the People’s Party and the Justice Party — have been against the deployment.
The DPK said the Park Geun-hye administration should “toss the ball to its successor” concerning THAAD-related issues, citing that the National Assembly had impeached the President and that she had lost support from the majority of the people.
“As a warning to the opposition, China may impose a couple more measures against Korea before the Constitutional Court makes its decision on whether to uphold the impeachment motion or not.” Park Won-gon said.
Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, agreed.
He speculated that China will “consistently deliver its protests over THAAD” by taking punitive measures against tourism and Korean pop culture before considering diplomatic and security affairs.
“China is trying to maintain a balance in sending effective warnings to Korea while ensuring that its policies will not lead to anti-China sentiment, and consequently, an enhanced security alliance between Korea and the U.S. as well as tightened military cooperation involving Japan,” Kim said. “In other words, China will adjust the level of pressure against Korea when it comes to diplomatic relations.”
Park Won-gon said it will not be easy for China to play the North Korea card and loosen the noose on Pyongyang in opposition to the U.N. Security Council’s nuclear sanctions.
“It will be too risky for Beijing to defy the U.N. and also disrupt its relations with the U.S. as well as other global powers over the THAAD issue,” he said.