Trump Era S. Korea bracing for Trump risks
Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, left, and Defense Minister Han Min-koo attend a meeting with lawmakers of the ruling Saenuri Party to discuss possible effects of the U.S. presidential election on South Korea, at the National Assembly, Wednesday. / Yonhap
NSC holds meeting to discuss possible impact on alliance
By Yi Whan-woo
South Korea is bracing for possible pressure from the United States to overhaul mutual security and foreign policies after Donald Trump was elected as the next U.S. president, Wednesday.
Cheong Wa Dae convened a National Security Council (NSC) meeting to assess the impact of the U.S. presidential election on South Korea.
NSC chief Kim Kwan-jin presided over the meeting, attended by key security and economic officials, and reported countermeasures to President Park Geun-hye, according to the presidential office.
Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se assured those present that the Seoul-Washington alliance will remain unchanged. He also said ministry officials will communicate with relevant members of the U.S. presidential transition team to cooperate on issues on the Korean Peninsula.
But the mood here is somewhat pessimistic following the unexpected election results.
“We’re in very, very serious trouble,” said Park Won-gon, an international relations professor at Handong University. “The decades-long alliance between the two nations is now facing a test and we should prepare to confront all possible risks.”
Some analysts downplayed the Republican candidate’s pledges concerning sharing of defense costs with Seoul, possible talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Seoul’s possible nuclear armament as “unrealistic,” claiming such rhetoric was merely aimed at wooing white working-class voters.
Advocating an “America first” view, Trump has been insisting on South Korea paying more for its defense if it wants to maintain 28,000 American troops here against North Korea’s military threats.
He once threatened to pull out U.S. forces if South Korea does not pay “very substantially.” He called it “peanuts” even though Seoul agreed to pay 920 billion won ($886 million) in 2014 under the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA).
“It will not just be the military alliance that will be affected by Trump’s victory,” Park said. “Possible negotiations over sharing defense costs can also hurt diplomatic relations and even public sentiment toward the U.S.”
He cited that many South Koreans tend to view the SOFA between the two allies as biased in favor of the American side.
“Any sign of being too submissive toward a Trump administration in military negotiations can lead to anti-government and anti-U.S. sentiment,” Park said.
Trump, who has been underscoring an isolationist foreign policy, indicated that South Korea and Japan might need to obtain their own nuclear arsenals to counter North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats despite concerns of a nuclear arms race in East Asia.
Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said the government should pursue “fundamental changes” in its policies on diplomacy, security and Korean reunification.
“Under a Trump presidency, it is possible Japan may opt for nuclear armament even if we don’t,” Cheong said. “South Korea has been relying on the nuclear umbrella provided by the U.S. The government now should actively consider taking responsibility for its own security for a healthier and balanced alliance with the U.S. from now on.’”
Regarding relations with North Korea, Trump said he is willing to invite young dictator Kim Jong-un to the U.S.
But this does not mean Trump will be interested in resuming dialogue with North Korea or actively intervening to stop Pyongyang’s nuclear program, according to analysts.
They speculated that Trump, who has been known for his unpredictability, may launch a nuclear strike against North Korea if he finds the Kim Jong-un regime’s advance in nuclear and ballistic missile program “intolerable.”
“Trump once said he will press China to exercise more leverage on North Korea but it’s unlikely he will do so considering his isolationist policy,” said Paik Hak-soon, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute.
Park agreed. “Trump may let South Korea, Japan and other relevant countries deal with North Korea’s nukes,” he said.
“He will only pay attention to Pyongyang’s nuclear program if he finds that it becomes a real threat to the U.S. He may order bombing of North Korea.”