South China Sea ruling to complicate ties with US, China

By Yi Whan-woo

An international ruling scheduled for next week over sovereignty in the South China Sea may dampen Korea’s pursuit of balanced diplomacy with the United States and China, according to analysts, Friday.

They said Seoul will be under more pressure to join Washington amid the escalating military tension in the South China Sea between the two superpowers, especially as the July 12 ruling of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) looms.

The PCA, a United Nations tribunal in The Hague, the Netherlands, will make its decision on the Philippines’ case against China, which claims most of the South China Sea, citing ancient historical records. The sea is one of the world’s busiest trade routes and China has started building islands there.

The U.S. has sided with the Philippines, which borders the South China Sea, and views it as international territory, in line with the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.

“This is only a part of the beginning of Korea’s series of dilemmas in its relationships with the U.S. and China,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a U.S. expert at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. “Whatever the decision that will be made, Seoul will be urged to voice its support of Washington.”

Citing U.S. President Barack Obama, Kim said the United States has been putting more pressure on China to follow the international regulations while asking its allies around the world to take more responsibility in disputed issues.

Following a summit with President Park Geun-hye at the White House in October 2015, Obama said Washington expects Seoul to speak out if China fails to abide by international norms and rules.

Kwak Jin-o, a senior researcher at the Northeast Asian History Foundation, said Korea should remain neutral and prudent when making an announcement after the PCA’s ruling.

“Beijing will understand special relationships between Seoul and Washington concerning Pyongyang’s military threats,” he said. “Still, we should avoid appearing as if we are welcoming the PCA ruling, in case it turns out to be against China.”

The analysts also warned against siding with China as a possible strategy to settle the issues of the overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs) with China near Ieodo, a submerged reef controlled by Seoul.

Ieodo is 149 kilometers southwest of Korea’s southernmost island of Marado and 247 kilometers northeast of the nearest Chinese island of Tongdao. Both countries have claimed exclusive rights to explore and use marine resources in their respective EEZs.

Citing that China has already filled up the coral reefs and built islands in the South China Sea, some pundits said Korea should also build an island at Ieodo to consolidate its territorial rights on the EEZ claimed by China.

But “China won’t buy such a claim,” Kim said.

“China will come up with a different logic concerning its territorial dispute with other countries,” he said.

“It’s too naive to think Beijing will comply with our claim over the EEZ if we support them over the South China Sea dispute.”

Kwak voiced a similar view, saying, “Every case should be dealt with separately.”