Should North Korea be ousted from ARF?
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By Kim Jae-kyoung
SINGAPORE — The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) held in Manila this month showed ASEAN’s commitment to helping resolve the North Korean nuclear issue but it also exposed limitations in its role and capacity.
Although ASEAN members united on North Korea’s aggression, there was no meaningful and detailed discussion on curbing diplomatic exchanges with the reclusive country and whether to exclude it from the regional security forum.
In other words, there was an improvement in rhetoric but little progress in action on how to play its part in reining in the outcast country.
Ahead of the ARF, a platform for dialogue and cooperation on regional security, ASEAN foreign ministers issued a joint statement expressing grave concern over rising tension on the Korean peninsula triggered by North Korea’s tests of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
"These developments seriously threaten peace, security and stability in the region and the world," the ministers said, strongly calling for Pyongyang to comply fully with its obligations under all relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions.
During the ARF, an ASEAN-led forum that groups the U.S., the two Koreas and 24 other countries, most ASEAN members, except for the Philippines, chair of the forum this year, refused to have bilateral talks with the North.
ASEAN’s determined statement might have sent a message that if North Korea continues provocations, it will damage diplomatic ties with the 10-member bloc, which still maintains friendly relations with the rogue state.
However, many argue that now is time to act rather than talk to increase pressure on Pyongyang.
Against this backdrop, the U.S. strongly called for ASEAN and its allies to downgrade diplomatic exchanges and suspend the isolated country from the forum prior to this year’s gathering.
Should North Korea be kicked out? Regardless of growing demand, it is pretty unlikely that ASEAN nations will either sever bilateral ties with the North or reach a consensus to discharge it from the security forum.
“I don’t think cutting bilateral ties with North Korea is an option on the table for ASEAN member states now or in the foreseeable future even at this rate of continued provocations by North Korea,” said Hoang Thi Ha, lead researcher at the ASEAN Studies Center at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore.
“North Korea’s provocations, while being progressively dangerous and disturbing, do not pose an existential security threat to ASEAN countries.”
Expelling North Korea from ARF is also unlikely as it is not likely to build actual pressure on the Kim Jong-un regime because its participation in the forum has only marginal benefits for both the region and the North.
“Expulsion would of course have a strong symbolic impact, but I do not believe doing so will shame the North into changing its behavior,” Balbina Hwang, a visiting professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies, said.
“If anything, it will only inflame its hostility, and it may choose to lash out at the region.”
What makes it more difficult is that such a move contrasts with ASEAN’s mission to promote security and stability in the region.
“Discharging North Korea from the ARF is not a viable alternative at this stage. Procedurally, there are no provisions on ARF member expulsion, but essentially, there will be no ASEAN consensus to do so,” Ha said.
“Furthermore, this extreme act goes against ASEAN’s DNA which pursues dialogue and engagement instead of isolation and marginalization.”
So setting aside the idea of expulsion, ASEAN should focus on forging a consensus to take a strong, unified stance against North Korea by fully implementing the UNSC resolutions, particularly on sanctions against the communist regime.
At the same time, they should step up efforts to crack down on Pyongyang’s illicit trade and activities aimed at evading sanctions and earning hard currency, while strengthening monitoring of North Koreans’ entry into their countries.