Democratic midterm gains may fuel fresh trade uncertainty for Korea

By Lee Gyu-lee

• Published Nov 4, 2026 3:57 PM KST
• Updated Nov 4, 2026 4:14 PM KST

Trump could intensify tariff pressure despite limited congressional constraints

Democratic gains in both chambers of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections could expose Korea to fresh trade uncertainty, as experts warn that while such a shift would do little to curb U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff powers, it could complicate the implementation of Seoul's investment commitments and prompt him to intensify trade pressure.

The $350 billion investment agreement between Seoul and Washington is unlikely to be overturned, as expanding U.S. manufacturing has bipartisan support. However, the political fallout from the Republican defeat could put pressure on Trump to demonstrate progress on his trade agenda, with Korea potentially facing renewed tariff threats, the experts said.

"The tools used to exert tariff pressure are unlikely to change," said Jang Sang-sik, head of trade trend analysis at the Korea International Trade Association, referring to Section 232 and Section 301 of the U.S. trade law, which provide the administration with legal grounds to impose tariffs.

"Congress has largely delegated these powers to the administration, allowing the executive branch to implement them through executive action.”

Seo Jung-kun, a political science professor at Kyung Hee University, also said congressional oversight should not be confused with the ability to halt executive policies.

“Looking at the first two years of the Trump administration, his tariff policy has largely been pursued independently of Congress," the professor said.

"Even if Congress passed a bill requiring the president to obtain congressional approval for tariffs, Trump would veto it. Overriding the veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers (which Democrats is unlikely to reach).”

However, the political consequences of a Democratic victory could create a different source of uncertainty for Korea.

The experts said Trump could become more aggressive in trade negotiations as his domestic political room for maneuver narrows, potentially pressing foreign countries harder for market access and using tariffs to revive U.S. manufacturing.

"The more the U.S. media create an atmosphere that Trump is finished and has become a lame-duck president, the more he will want to use the tariff policy he cares about most and takes pride in to demonstrate his authority and presence as president once again," Seo said. “And if Korea becomes a test case, it could put us in a very difficult position."

The professor cited the possibility of Trump imposing 25 percent tariffs on Korean auto exports, noting that such a move could carry political appeal in manufacturing-heavy states such as Michigan ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Against this backdrop, experts said Seoul would need to demonstrate progress in implementing its $350 billion investment commitment while ensuring individual projects remain commercially viable.

“If we show progress on these commitments, it could give us grounds to press the U.S. on issues such as nuclear-powered submarines and the transfer of wartime operational control,” Seo said, adding that if Korea is seen as delaying its investment commitments, Trump could use that as a pretext to impose 25 percent tariffs on auto exports.

While the experts do not expect Democrats to block the investment projects, they warned that closer congressional scrutiny could complicate their implementation.

"It is an investment in the U.S.; building factories; creating jobs … There is no domestic political reason for a Democratic-controlled Congress to block these investments, nor does the federal legislature have the means to do so," Seo said.

Jang expects a Democratic-controlled Congress to increase requests for documents, feasibility reviews and oversight of investment projects, potentially changing business conditions or delaying schedules.

"That could mean changes in business conditions or delays in project schedules," he said, adding that the Korean government would need to adjust the timing of fund transfers accordingly.

The impact could vary across individual investment projects. Jang said nuclear power projects were unlikely to face significant changes, given bipartisan support for nuclear energy, while the Alaska liquefied natural gas project could face greater scrutiny if the Trump administration seeks to pursue it as a federal government initiative.

Min Jeong-hun, an American studies professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said a Democratic-controlled Congress could take a tougher stance on Seoul's initiatives, but was unlikely to offer substantial support beyond its general commitment to the alliance.

"Congress may take a tougher line. Beyond general rhetoric about the alliance, I don't see Democrats offering much support or protection for the initiatives we are currently pursuing," Min said.