Russia may play bigger role in N. Korea issues

By Kim Jae-kyoung

Russia is expected to play a bigger role in controlling North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump put ExxonMobil Chief Executive Rex Tillerson at the helm of the State Department.

Trump’s choice of Tillerson, the 64-year-old Texas oilman with close ties to Russia, indicates that the billionaire investor will take a new approach to foreign policy, including that related to the Korean Peninsula.

“We can be pretty sure new thinking will go on in Washington. Russia, for example, might become more important, and China less so,” William Brown, a professor at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, said.

He pointed out that Russia was a key contributor to the North Korean missile and nuclear programs and might be able to play a more constructive role in stopping it.

Tillerson has been doing business in Russia for the last two decades and knows Russia’s leadership well. In 2013, he received the Order of Friendship from Russian President Vladimir Putin for his work brokering a deal between ExxonMobil and the state-owned Russian oil giant Rosneft.

“The message (of Tillerson’s nomination) to me is that Trump will focus on business over ideology and that he wants strong managers in his cabinet,” he added. ” “In this case not just to manage our foreign relations but also the State Department itself,” he added.”

Trump said he sees Tillerson’s relations with Russia as a selling point. “The thing I like best about Tillerson is that he has vast experience at dealing successfully with all types of foreign governments,” Trump tweeted Tuesday after the nomination.

A week before the Tillerson nomination, Trump appointed Mad Dog James Mattis as secretary of defense.He also tapped hardliners for his national security team. He nominated Kansas Rep. Mike Pompeo as CIA director and retired Army Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn as national security advisor.

These picks suggest that the Trump administration will continue to maintain solid relations with South Korea while getting tougher on North Korea.

“Mattis is known to be a strong alliance person so he no doubt will work to make sure the U.S.-Korea alliance remains in good shape and he has the kind of character that will cause Kim Jung-un to take notice,” Brown said.

“Pompeo will immediately have his work cut out for him to try to get U.S. intelligence to get a better handle on North Korean plans, objectives and vulnerabilities,” he added. “Flynn has the unenviable task of creating teamwork while devising new ways to deal with Pyongyang.”

Seeking practical diplomacy, Trump’s administration is likely to come up with more practical strategy toward both South and North Korea for tangible outcomes.

Trump is likely to call for changes in key military deals with South Korea, including cost-sharing arrangements for U.S. troops. On Pyongyang, his team may seek to mark the shift in policy strategy from “strategic patience” to “tactical impatience.”

However, it is likely that the Korea issue could be put on the back burner for a while because most of Trump’s cabinet members are new to Korea’s problems.

“Both Trump and Tillerson are businessmen with no foreign policy background. They are considered outsiders,” a political analyst in Singapore said, asking not to be named.

“Most of his members at the defense and security team have expertise and experience in relations with the Middle East, Europe and Russia,” he added.

Seoul is advised to take the initiative in maintaining its alliance with Washington by showing a willingness to discuss key issues raised by Trump so that it cannot be left out of the U.S. policy review process that is bound to be taking place over the next few months.

“It needs to make sure it does not bring up what a new administration will see as petty issues that don’t involve us strategically,” Brown said. “Pyongyang needs to have Trump’s undivided attention, at least for a while.”

He pointed out that the U.S. Korea alliance and the U.S. Korea Free Trade Agreement are widely considered in Washington as the best of both.

“I’d suggest Seoul take the initiative in showing a willingness to improve and modernize both of these institutions, giving Trump some quick wins that he won’t soon forget,” he said.

“The wins can be advantageous to Korea as well, as in coming up with new plans to significantly reorient the alliance to better defend against nuclear weapons.”