Medical costs for elderly will skyrocket in 2060
By Choi Sung-jin
Medical costs for people 65 and older are expected to rise to as much as 337.1 trillion won ($278.8 billion) in 2060, approaching the entire amount of the central government’s budget this year.
A report by Health Insurance Policy Research Institute has estimated medical costs for the elderly in the future by taking into account demographic factors such as birthrate, mortality and international migration as well as individuals’ medical records, putting their calculations into eight different scenarios.
The estimates in the report are that medical costs in 2060 will vary between 229.4 trillion won and 337.1 trillion won.
The high estimate almost nears the central government’s budget of 386.4 trillion won for this year, it said, adding that the share of medical costs of the gross domestic product will also grow from 3.86 percent to 5.57 percent.
“If medical costs increase while health conditions do not improve from what they are now, it will pose serious risks to health insurance finance,” the report said. “This stresses the need for the government to implement various programs to improve the health of older people by conducting national campaigns to reduce smoking and drinking while encouraging physical exercise.”
In 2014, health insurance paid 19.7 trillion won in medical expenses for people over 65, or 36.3 percent of the total. Per capita medical expense of the over-65 population amounted to 3.32 million won, 4.2 times higher than that for citizens under 65. The growth of medical expenses for older people also grew almost twice as fast as those for the younger generations, it said.
Korea became an aging society in 2000 as people 65 and older accounted for 7.2 percent of the population. It will be an aged society in 2017 when the comparable rate reaches 14.0 percent. It will rise further to 20.8 percent in 2026 to make the nation a super-aged society. In 2060, the share of the aged population will grow to 40 percent, according to Statistics Korea.