Spain’s win better for economy
Crisis-stricken Espania needs morale booster
By Kim Tae-gyu
Staff reporter
Football fans of the Netherlands will not like this idea, but a Korean brokerage house has predicted that a victory for Spain against the Dutch in the forthcoming South Africa World Cup final would have a bigger positive impact on the global economy.
Solomon Investment & Securities came up with the intriguing report Friday after considerating the struggling economy in Spain in the aftermath of the unprecedented financial crisis.
"We found that triumphs in the World Cup matches tend to have positive effects on the national economies and things would be similar this time around," Solomon analyst Kang Hyun-gie said.
"In that sense, it would be better for Spain to win. A victory would serve as a great boost to Spain but it would hardly have any effect on a healthy country like the Netherlands."
Spain was feared to be a cause of another economic downturn together with other highly indebted neighbors situated in southern Europe such as Portugal, Italy and Greece - called the PIGS countries.
Over the past two decades, World Cup winners have chalked up a substantially better economic growth rate in the year following their success compared to a year before.
For example, Argentina clocked an economic growth of 7.1 percent in 1986 when the Latin American nation won the World Cup in Mexico compared to negative 7 percent a year previously.
Four years later, West Germany racked up 5.7 percent in national output after triumphing at the soccer festival, up from 3.9 percent in 1989.
Things were similar for Brazil, which claimed the trophy at the 1994 and 2002 World Cup, as well as for Italy, which defeated France in the 2006 World Cup final - they recorded a jump in gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 1 percentage points in all the three years.
"If Spain wins the title, its domestic consumption is expected to rise and investor sentiment will also improve. This would have a favorable ripple effect on the whole of Europe down the road," Kang said.
"In comparison, the Netherlands are doing well. I also love the Holland players in their impressive orange jerseys but I am now rooting for Spain to boost the international economy."
Shinhan Financial Corp. researcher Lee Sun-yup concurred.
"Obviously, a victory for Spain would be better news than that of the Netherlands. Spanish people would be overjoyed and open up their wallets, which would be good not only for Spain but also for the whole of Europe," Lee said.
"In my view, the impact would be felt in Korea too where European investors funnel large amounts in the Seoul bourse."
월드컵 스페인 우승, 세계경제에 도움
올해 월드컵 스페인-네덜란드 결승전에서 스페인이 우승해야 세계 경제에 더 유리하다는 분석이 나와 화제다.
솔로몬투자증권은 "경제상황이 상대적으로 열악한 스페인이 우승한다면 세계 경기회복이나 경기 둔화속도의 완급을 조절하는 데 긍정적일 것"이라고 밝혔다.
증권사에 따르면 과거 20년간 우승국들은 1998년 프랑스를 제외하고 모두 월드컵 전년보다 높은 경제 성장률을 기록했다.
한 예로 아르헨티나는 1986년 멕시코 월드컵 우승 후 7.1%의 성장을 기록해 전년 -7% 성장률과 큰대조를 이뤘다.