Park beats Moon in exit poll
Two fight within margin of error
By Kim Tong-hyung
Park Geun-hye of the ruling conservative Saenuri Party gained a scintilla over a majority of votes cast in Wednesday’s presidential election, a joint exit poll by three major TV networks showed.
Moon Jae-in of the opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) was behind within the tight margin of error. By any standard, the result was too close to call by either party. At least one other exit poll on a smaller sample showed Moon was the winner.
The joint exit poll, based on more than 80,000 interviews, had Park leading by a mere 1.2 points with support of 50.1 percent versus 48.9 percent for Moon, consistent with pre-election polls that had indicated the race was on a knife’s edge.
A separate poll by cable news channel YTN forecast Moon would win by obtaining 49.7 percent to 53.5 percent of votes against Park’s 46.1 percent to 49.9 percent. However, its 2.8-point margin of error, which allows for statistical variation, was larger than the 1.6-point room permitted in the national broadcasters’ survey.
JTBC, another cable channel, projected a narrow win for Park, who would secure 49.6 percent to Moon’s 49.4 percent. The National Election Commission (NEC) measured voter participation at a higher-than-expected 75.8 percent.
The winner of the vote, which featured six candidates but was essentially a two-way race, will face the challenge of governing a deeply divided nation struggling to cope with a frail economy, eroding living standards and social dysfunction.
Park, 60, is the daughter of former military strongman Park Chung-hee, whose legacy as a successful economic strategist is tainted by bloody records of political and civilian suppression. Moon, a former human rights lawyer, once jailed for protesting against the late Park’s dictatorship, is the political heir of the late Roh Moo-hyun, the former president lionized by liberal voters after leaping to his death in 2009.
The two familiar adversaries spent their final day of campaigning Tuesday barnstorming through major cities like Seoul and Busan hunting for last-minute support.
Park had been considered as the favorite for months, but the outcome turned unpredictable after independent candidate-turned-kingmaker Ahn Cheol-soo committed to the campaign of Moon in early December.
``I will humbly await the choice of our people,’’ Park said after casting her ballot at a school near her home in Samseong-dong, southern Seoul.
``I am grateful for all the people who were with me throughout the campaign. I am confident that the wise people of our country will open a new era for Korea.’’
Moon, who voted with his wife at a community center in Eomgung-dong, Busan, greeted reporters with a mix of relief and anxiety.
``I did my best and now will leave the rest to the heavens,’’ Moon said, hours before jetting back to Seoul to be with colleagues at his campaign headquarters.
``Voting is the only way for people to change the world they live in … New politics, economic democratization, a welfare state and peace in the Korean Peninsula are only possible if people vote for it. If you were dissatisfied about the past five years, please vote and make a difference.’’
Ahn, who showed up at a polling station in Yongsan, Seoul, with his wife, didn’t say much to reporters other than asking them ``did you vote?’’
He boarded a plane for San Francisco later in the day where he is expected to stay for a month or two planning his next moves in politics. The millionaire software guru withdrew from the presidential race in November after his talks to merge candidacies with Moon fell through.
Park and Moon have put forth similar plans on politics, society and the economy, speechifying about opening a new era of centralist politics aimed at combating inequality without hurting growth. Both promise to be more engaging toward North Korea than incumbent President Lee Myung-bak, although Park is more cautious than her rival.
Their supporters, however, couldn’t be more polarized as the election was just as much a clash between the ghosts of dead presidents as ideas about the future.
Most of the polls taken ahead of the Dec. 12 deadline for publicizing surveys had Park and Moon’s difference in support within the margins of error, which allows for statistical variation, with Moon even inching ahead in some of them. The close margins suggested the possibility of a cliffhanger, which could be decided by the party that is most effective at getting voters to the polls.
Park and Moon had engaged in one of the nastiest campaigns in recent memories and the ill-tempered exchanges between the camps trickled over to polling day.
Saenuri Party officials were livid Wednesday morning after the NEC requested prosecutors to investigate mobile-phone text messages urging receivers to vote for Moon. The Election Law forbids campaigning on the day of the vote until polls close.
Moon’s camp admitted they sent the texts, but described it as an honest mistake, claiming that messages originally sent on Tuesday were arriving late due to heavy mobile traffic. Then they accused Park’s camp of using vehicles to escort voters to the polling stations.
``This is undoubtedly illegal campaigning, so if even Moon wins the election, there is no choice for us but to fight to nullify the results,’’ said Lee Jung-hyun, Park’s spokesman.
During a long and bitter campaign session, Park accused Moon of sympathizing with North Korea and shifting positions on important issues like the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the disputed maritime border between the two Koreas, which she claims would undermine the country’s wellbeing domestically and its security abroad.
Moon attacked Park’s camp of allegedly insulting the democratic process with unlawful campaigning activities and claimed she was receiving assists from the incumbent government of Lee Myung-bak, whether through intelligence agents spreading detrimental comments about him on the Internet or ministries criticizing his policies.