Ahn Cheol-soo's political career at crossroads

Ahn Cheol-soo, right, an independent candidate running in Seoul’s Nowon district in the April 24 legislative by-election, and his wife wave to supporters. / Yonhap

By Kim Tae-gyu

Judgment day is approaching fast for independent politician Ahn Cheol-soo, who was initially a contender in the presidential election last December but is now running for a National Assembly seat representing Seoul’s Nowon district in an April 24 by-election.

Despite his early struggle in the race, the former software mogul currently enjoys a comfortable lead against his main competitor, Huh Joon-young of the governing Saenuri Party.

With the election a few days away, opinion polls show that Ahn is the runaway leader as more than 40 percent support the 51-year-old compared to 25 percent who have opted for Huh.

Huh Joon-young, right, candidate of the governing Saenuri Party, shakes hands with a citizen in a charity event held in Nowon-gu, Seoul. / Yonhap

The upcoming contest is expected to be a major crossroads in the political career of Ahn, who dropped out of the presidential competition to allow for a single opposition candidate.

However, Park Geun-hye from the governing party managed to win the election on Dec. 19, the date Ahn left for the United States where he stayed for three months.

When Ahn came back on March 11, the entrepreneur-turned-politician showed his political influence, taking the lead in polls although he has little in common with Nowon.

Best-case scenario

If Ahn enters the National Assembly in a triumphant manner with a landslide victory against Huh, a former police chief and head of state-run Korail, he may cause a massive political realignment.

Although he is a first-term lawmaker in waiting, Ahn is expected to flex his muscles in the liberal arena with the main opposition Democratic United Party (DUP) facing a leadership race ahead of its national convention on May 4.

The DUP has failed to attract media or public attention amid the security threat posed by North Korea, which launched a long-range rocket last December and carried out a third atomic test on Feb. 12.

However, the comeback of the high-profile politician is expected to help the DUP get more attention although Ahn publicly negated the belief that he is thinking of joining the opposition party after the by-election.

Many political observers expect that Ahn will eventually join the opposition party as an independent congressman typically struggles to achieve headway in the 300-seat Assembly.

They say maverick lawmakers may savor some popularity but that usually does not last long.

“Have a look at Rep. Chung Mong-joon. Remaining as an independent lawmaker for around two decades, he eventually joined the ruling party. To do something significant, Ahn will have to follow the path of Chung,” Prof. Sohn Tae-gyu at Dankook University said.

“The DUP also paid great respect to Ahn by not fielding its own candidate in the by-election in his constiuency.”

Rep. Chung, who was first elected a lawmaker in 1988, joined the Grand National Party, now the Saenuri Party, in late 2007 just before the party’s Lee Myung-bak won the presidential election.

Thereafter, the seven-term lawmaker assumed major roles in the conservative party including its chairmanship.

“The most beautiful scenario is that Ahn gets aboard the DUP following its strong requests and takes root there so that he will be able to become its standard bearer in the next presidential election,” Sohn said.

“However, the scenario might be too good to be true in consideration of the political dynamics of the DUP. I wonder whether many long-time loyalists in the party will welcome the outsider.”

Included in Ahn’s other options are to create a new party or to remain independent for the time being. Prof. Shin Yul at Myonggi University said that a silver lining is in the former case.

He said that the crisis of the DUP, which suffers from a low approval rate, may offer a political boon to Ahn, who is famous for creating things like his brainchild Ahnlab, the country’s No. 1 anti-virus software developer.

“Should the DUP continue to struggle, some of its members may defect to Ahn’s new party. That would be the best-case scenario for him,” Shin said.

Worst-case scenario

Ahn would not want to even think about the possibility but if he loses in the by-election, it will deal a serious blow to his political career.

Few seem to suspect Ahn’s victory, though his camp itself comes up with such a worry because relatively few people vote in by-elections ― since 2000, the average voter turnout has been 33.8 percent.

In particular, the turnout has been low among young voters, who overwhelmingly support Ahn, while that for senior citizens who tend to back conservative nominees has been relatively high.

“Nowon is located in the northernmost part of Seoul. So, many young office workers there leave their residences early in the morning to work in central Seoul and return home late in the evening,” an aide of Ahn said.

“We are concerned that they might not have time to vote. If the turnout is less than 25 percent, nobody knows who will win.”

The April 24 vote start at 6 a.m. and finishes at 8 p.m.

“It is very difficult to vote early in the morning when people are busy preparing to go to work. The 8 p.m. deadline is also hard to meet,” he said.

A good piece of news for Ahn’s side is that the country introduced an early voting system so that those who expect to be busy or away on the election date could cast their ballots in advance.

Over the early voting on April 19 and 20, up to 8.38 percent of voters in Nowon took part _ a very encouraging sign for Ahn and his lieutenants, who worry about the low turnout.

The early voting system is different from absentee voting in that the former does not require voters to sign up in advance ― they can simply show up at a polling station over the two-day run.

From Ahn’s perspective, however, the triumph is not everything. If Ahn fails to defeat Huh in a convincing fashion, the victory is feared to undercut his potential.

To the dismay of Ahn’s supporters, who wish sweeping change in politics from the newcomer in the field, some even question whether he will be able to make any difference without regard to the way he wins the parliamentary seat.

“First of all, Ahn’s clout has tailed off after he gave up the liberal ticket last December. I don’t think that he has a big shot at regaining his influence of the past,” said one observer.