Moon pressed to ditch dialogue option
South Korea's military fires a Hyunmoo II ballistic missile during an exercise at an undisclosed location Monday. The military conducted a live-fire exercise simulating an attack on North Korea's nuclear test site to warn Pyongyang over its latest nuclear test. / AP-Yonhap
By Kim Jae-kyoung
President Moon Jae-in faces a dilemma with North Korea as he is running out of options to deal with the reclusive state following its sixth nuclear test Sunday.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has rejected Moon’s peaceful overture, and U.S. President Donald Trump also believes Moon’s “talk of appeasement will not work.”
Then, what options are left for Moon to rein in North Korea and defuse tensions on the Korean Peninsula?
Unfortunately, there are very few as the Kim regime is wholly uninterested in anything President Moon has to say.
Against this backdrop, experts said that Moon should take the dialogue option off the table for the moment and strengthen international cooperation to tighten sanctions against North Korea and deepen its diplomatic isolation.
In particular, they stressed that it is crucial for South Korea to be on the same page and maintain strong ties with the U.S. and other allies to increase pressure on the North and thwart its attempts to sideline the South by using its nuclear leverage.
Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy to the six-party talks, said that South Korea should get tougher on Pyongyang if the North keeps refusing to halt nuclear tests and missile launches.
“South Korea, working primarily with the U.S. and Japan, can enhance its missile defense capabilities and intensify joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises, inviting Japan and Australia to also participate,” DeTrani told The Korea Times.
“Additionally, working with the United Nations, it can impose even more intrusive sanctions on North Korea, with a focus on revenue going to its leadership,” he added.
But DeTrani, a former director of the U.S. National Counter Proliferation Center, suggested that both Washington and Seoul should seek ways to hold exploratory talks with Pyongyang behind the scenes at the same time.
“If North Korea agreed to halt nuclear tests and missile launches during exploratory talks, there could be value in dialogue to determine if an approach similar to the Sept. 19, 2005, Joint Statement process could be established,” he said.
He explained that an action-for-action approach to providing security assurances and energy assistance in return for an initial halt and an ultimate complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear programs was possible.
More nuke tests expected
The analysts said that it is time for Moon to stop seeking only a peaceful overture.
“In dealing with national security like this, a nation has four options in principle ― diplomacy, deterrence, defense and ultimate destruction of its adversary that is threatening the existence of the nation,” said Kongdan Oh, a researcher at the Institute for Defense Analysis in the U.S.
She pointed out that not many at this point will agree that negotiations are doable because Kim Jong-un said clearly many times that his nukes are non-negotiable.
“Thus, the other three options are now left ― deterrence, defense and destruction,” she added. “After being a bit relaxed on the North’s pushing its nuke program, finally the time has come for President Moon and his cabinet members to face this challenge deadly seriously without playing a game of words.”
In Oh’s view, the latest nuclear test, the most powerful one to date, is a persistent part of the long process to make North Korea a nuclear weapons state with the means of delivery.
“Given the nature of their efforts and persistence and huge sunken costs to build missiles and nukes, one can say that the North is moving toward its goal,” she said.
Tara O, adjunct fellow at the Pacific Forum CSIS, said that the strong South Korea-U.S. alliance and defense should be the foundation in dealing with North Korea.
“As for Moon’s insistence of using only one tool, dialogue, and taking other options off the table, and further, trying to warn the U.S. of using military and other national instruments, Moon is severely limiting South Korea’s relevance in this situation and potentially weakening its defenses,” she said.
The analysts expect that North Korea will continue to push for additional nuclear tests to complete its program.
“North Korea will not give up its nuclear weapons program because it brings too many benefits for the Kim regime, including threatening the U.S. to break its alliance with South Korea,” O said.
DeTrani echoed the view, saying, “North Korea will continue to conduct nuclear tests and missile launches until it’s confident it has a viable and deployable nuclear capability that threatens the U.S. This would be its so-called nuclear deterrent.
“North Korea has made significant advances in its missile and nuclear capabilities, to include the number of nuclear weapons, the miniaturization of nuclear warheads, and the missile systems capable of delivering these nuclear weapons.”