58 Anniversary Allies Can Adapt to Some Post-US Election Changes
By Jung Sung-ki
Staff Reporter
The outcome of the U.S. presidential election next week is largely expected to have an influence on the half-century South Korea-U.S. relationship, experts say.
Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Yu Myung-hwan also forecast some changes in the alliance between the two nations under the leadership of a new U.S. president.
But he emphasized no matter who is elected, such changes will be managed successfully because the allies have already broadened bilateral relations and shared extensive of common interests.
``The Korea-U.S. relationship has expanded to a great extent regarding all sectors of society, including security, politics and the economy, so I don't see any big changes in the alliance that cannot be managed through dialogue, in particular under the bilateral strategic alliance,'' Yu said in an interview at his office on the occasion of the 58th anniversary of The Korea Times.
``Of course, certain changes will take place in the long-term when the new (U.S.) leader takes office,'' Yu said.
But the two allies will be able to adapt to these changes, he said.
US N. Korea Policy After Election
Minister Yu said it will still take a long time for Washington and Pyongyang to improve their relationship even if Barack Obama, who advocates an engagement policy with North Korea, is elected.
Yu said the Seoul government was fully prepared to cooperate on North Korea's nuclear issues with the new U.S. government to be led by either John McCain of the conservative Republican Party or Obama of the liberal Democratic Party.
``Most of all, both McCain and Obama are known to recognize the effectiveness of the six-party talks, so that the framework will likely be sustained,'' said Yu. ``Indeed, when you see the lineup of the two camps' foreign policy advisors, many of them are figures in favor of South Korea.''
The minister admitted if Obama takes office, he would review Bush's North Korea policy thoroughly.
``We're already making a good guess on who will be included in the transition teams of both sides and preparing to coordinate the nuclear and other issues with them appropriately.''
He added Obama's engagement approach would rather help resolve the impasse with Pyongyang's nuclear programs in cooperation with South Korea in some sense.
Obama has emphasized ``sustained, direct, and aggressive'' engagement with North Korea, while McCain wants to pursue a tougher policy toward the North.
McCain has often expressed skepticism of diplomatic engagement with Pyongyang. He called for an intrusive protocol to verify the North's declaration of nuclear programs made in June and opposed its removal from the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism.
Prospects for FTA Ratification
Experts say a ratification of the Korea-US free trade agreement (KORUS FTA) is expected to be largely affected by the results of the U.S. presidential election since the two candidates have shown differences over the issue in their policies toward South Korea, with McCain in favor and Obama opposed.
Minister Yu reiterated the need for an early ratification of the KORUS FTA, which he said would help create a new growth engine for the country's economy by facilitating access to the U.S. market.
The two nations signed a landmark free trade deal for full-fledged economic cooperation last year, which has yet to be ratified by the legislatures of the two nations. Experts expect the deal will increase Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) by some $10 billion.
Yu admitted chances for the trade pact to be approved by both legislatures of South Korea and the United States within this year would be slim, but raised expectations that it would be endorsed early next year at the earliest, even under the leadership of Obama, who has opposed the trade deal with Seoul as ``badly flawed'' and called for renegotiations.
Obama has said the accord does not do enough to address concerns of American autoworkers, one of his biggest support groups.
``When it comes to South Korea, we've got a trade agreement up right now _ they are sending hundreds of thousands of South Korean cars into the United States _ that's all good, (but) we can only get 4,000 to 5,000 into South Korea,'' the Democratic candidate said in a campaign speech.
McCain, on the other hand, supports the passage of the KORUS FTA, saying the pact will expand American exports and create more jobs in the United States.
The Republican candidate said Obama has just been opposing the agreement, placing his party's ``short-term political interests ahead of the long-term national interest.''
``We need to keep in mind that now is the election campaign period in the U.S. As was the case in the past, once a candidate becomes president, he has to think of what is in the national interest or not, something different from his campaign platform,'' Yu said. ``I think this time will be the case, too. I believe the next U.S. president will also look at whether the KORUS FTA will be in America's national interest and how the ratification of the deal will affect his political profile.''
He said if Congress has a free vote on the issue, the passage of the trade deal will be quite possible, adding there are still as many Democrats in support of the deal representing agricultural regions as opponents from regions where labor unions wield great influence and automakers are located.
Defense Cost-Sharing
Yu dismissed claims by some civic groups that a U.S. proposal to use part of South Korea's annual financial contribution to U.S. military funding in relocating its infantry units to the south of Seoul runs counter to bilateral agreements on the U.S. base relocation.
``The issue was already agreed in 2002 between defense authorities of the two nations. The United States requested the proposal to us, and our government accepted it. It is a legitimate move,'' said the minister. ``Some non-governmental organizations led by anti-U.S. groups claim our government has lied, but that's not true. The U.S. formally requested the use of the host-nation funds in relocating the 2nd Infantry Division, and related South Korean government ministries officially approved the proposal again in 2004.''
He emphasized that theoretically, there were few problems with the U.S. use of the funds in building new facilities at Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, which will be tripled in size to become a new U.S. military hub in South Korea, though both governments could consult on how much and until when the host-nation funds will be used.
An official from the Ministry of National Defense said the U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) has saved about 800 billion won of the host-nation funds to spend in relocating the 2nd ID and constructing new facilities at the camp, some 70 kilometers south of Seoul.
The U.S. claim to use the host-nation funds has stirred up controversy, provoking a backlash from liberal South Korean lawmakers and progressive civic activists. They argue if the USFK uses the defense cost-sharing funds, it means South Korean taxpayers will virtually foot most of the $10 billion bill for the relocation project initiated in the interests of the two nations.
Under the Land Partnership Plan (LPP) reached in 2002, the United States promised to foot the bill for moving 2nd ID bases, while South Korea was required to bear the cost for relocating the Yongsan Garrison in Seoul under the Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) finalized in 2004.
Under a master plan drawn up by the two governments last year, Seoul agreed to spend slightly more than half of the $10 billion program to move U.S. bases to Camp Humphreys, which will accommodate more than 44,000 U.S. servicemen, their families, base workers and South Korean soldiers.
The base relocation had originally been planned to be completed by 2008, but the timeline has been delayed several times due to protests by some Korean farmers in the Pyeongtaek area and other technical problems with constructing and modernizing facilities at the camp.
The official target date is 2012, but recent reports have said that figure has been revised to at least 2016.
Last year, South Korea paid more than 725 billion won in Special Measurement Agreement funds to assist with U.S. force sustainability, and payment of South Korean workers and construction costs.
The figure accounts for about 42 percent of the non-personnel stationing cost for maintaining 28,000 U.S. troops on the peninsula, USFK officials say. Washington wants South Korea to pay more to reach a 50-50 level.
In the latest round of Special Measures Agreement (SMA) negotiations that ended Thursday in Seoul, the United States reportedly asked for a 14.5-percent increase, while South Korea wants a less than 3-percent hike.
The two sides were also engaged in tug-of-war negotiations over Seoul's proposal to provide military equipment and materials to the USFK instead of cash to help ensure transparency in the U.S. use of funds. The next round of SMA talks is to be held later this month.