Is nuclear test next on Pyongyang's list?

By Kim Tong-hyung

With North Korea boasting its long-range missile capabilities with the successful launch of a Unha-3 rocket, officials in Seoul expressed concerns whether a third nuclear test is next on Pyongyang’s to-do list.

There had been speculation that North Korea would go ahead with another underground nuclear test after the planned launch. The first two experiments in 2006 and 2009 closely followed the launches of the Taepodong-2 missile and Kwangmyongsong-2 rocket, respectively.

Kim Min-sok, a defense ministry spokesman and veteran missile technology expert, confirmed that North Korean activities at its nuclear test facility in Punggyeri, North Hamgyeong Province, were being closely monitored.

``Our knowledge is that North Korea is very advanced in its preparations for another nuclear test. They will be able to pull it off after a short period, maybe a number of months, but whether they actually go ahead with it will be a political decision,’’ Kim said.

The Punggyeri site was badly battered by typhoons and flash floods that ripped through the country this summer, but North Koreans seem close to completing fixing the damage. The facility could be ready for a nuclear test by as early as mid-January, according to experts in Seoul.

North Korea’s decision to push ahead with the Unha-3 launch, which it claimed as an effort to put a weather satellite into orbit, may have the country facing tougher sanctions from the United Nations (UN) and a network of U.S. allies. Ironically, heavier international sanctions could double as a green light for Pyongyang to push ahead with further nuclear tests.

``While some experts are saying that the launch of the North Korean rocket will reduce the urgency to conduct another nuclear test, I think it would be best to consider the two issues separately,’’’ said Yang Moo-jin, a professor from the Seoul-based University of North Korean Studies.

``It’s likely that the North Koreans will dangle the threat of a nuclear test to fight the strengthening of international sanctions. They would have prepared such steps in advance under different scenarios.

``For example, should the UN Security Council consistently strengthen its pressure on North Korea, it could first respond by revealing its new light-water reactor under construction in Yongbyon. If the sanctions continue, it could open its uranium enrichment process to the world and create tension. The actual nuclear test would be the last of a series of moves.’’

While North Korea had relied on plutonium in its previous nuclear tests, experts believe the country would probably be able to make and explode a uranium device for its third attempt.

If it succeeds in doing so, that would show North Korea had developed the technology to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU), enabling it to build up larger stocks of weapons-grade material. With only limited plutonium stocks, North Korea admitted two years ago that it was working on enriching uranium.