’North Korea will seek reform and openness’
By Park Si-soo
Park Jae-kyu, president of Kyungnam University, is one of the most respected analysts on North Korea. He has crossed the inter-Korean border many times as a scholar or ranking bureaucrat. He is a rare South Korean who had the opportunity to meet and talk with late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il three times. This has provided him with a deeper understanding and keen insight on the reclusive regime based on first-hand contact with its decision-makers ㅡ ED.
Q: How did you take the news of Kim Jong-il’s death on Dec. 17?
A: I learned about his death through the news on Dec. 19. It is regrettable that he was unable to ameliorate inter-Korean relations while he was still alive.
Q: You met with Kim Jong-il three times. What was your impression of him?
A: As the late South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and the former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said of Kim Jong-il, he was insightful, intelligent, and well informed. One thing that I personally recall as “special” in my meetings with Chairman Kim was his role in making the inter-Korean defense ministers’ meeting possible.
In the second inter-Korean minister-level meeting of August 2000, we demanded an inter-Korean defense ministers’ meeting in order to discuss matters related to the construction of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex (GIC) which had already been agreed upon between the two Koreas, and completion of a railroad connection, called the Gyeongui Line. However, the North Korean military rejected such ideas.
Hence, I stopped the minister-level meeting, and took the train all night to Jagang Province to meet with Kim Jong-il who was doing on-the-spot guidance in the region. I stressed to him how essential it was to have an inter-Korean defense ministers’ meeting.
Why? Without removal of the landmines in the area and the surrounding military facilities, and without the military’s support and help, the inter-Korean cooperation projects such as the construction of the GIC and completion of the Gyeongui railroad could not proceed. I finally received a positive answer from him.
Q: The era of Kim Jong-un has begun. What is your take on that?
A: Through the Third Korean Workers’ Party Delegates Meeting which took place on Sept. 28, 2010 and other measures, North Korea made consistent efforts to institutionally align the Party, military, and Cabinet for the consolidation of power succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. So in North Korea, I do not think there is much confusion regarding this matter.
Furthermore, I do not think there is much confusion in terms of the power succession in the North because the organizational measures and alignment have already been carried out so that the military is now under the Party’s control and the Party has already been reorganized accordingly to strengthen Kim Jong-un’s leadership and guidance.
Time constraints may have prevented certain institutional measures from being put in place. Likewise, Kim Jong-un’s youth and inexperience leave some of the leadership elements in question. However, these can be complemented and supplemented by the senior mentor group consisting of Kim Young-nam, Jang Song-thaek, Kim Kyong-hui, Rhee Yong-ho, and others, a group that was formed after Kim Jong-il suffered from a stroke in August 2008. I do not think there will be turmoil or confusion on matters related to the leadership and power succession in North Korea.
Q: Is there any possibility of a military coup due to the instability of Kim Jong-un’s leadership?
A: By and large, the possibility of a coup is immeasurably small when we consider the unique characteristics of the North Korean political system. It would be extremely difficult for anyone to organize a political faction in North Korean society. And as the military is not only checked and balanced by the Party and the Cabinet, but also systematically guided to cooperate with them, the chance of such an occurrence is minute.
Q: What are the prospects for inter-Korean relations?
A: For now, it doesn't seem like there will be much changes from the policy North Korea followed under Kim Jong-il; the North will likely manage inter-Korean relations based on the policy that was implemented under the late Kim Jong-il regime.
I think that the North will first focus on consolidating the power succession. Once this situation settles down and is stabilized, then there is a good possibility that the North will actively seek improvement in inter-Korean relations, as well as with the U.S. and Japan.
Improvement in these relations will be vital for North Korea to solve its exigent economic problems, and solving the economic situation is an essential condition to consolidate the power succession in the North.
To that end, it’s very likely that North Korea will pursue gradual reform and openness. In this respect, inter-Korean talks and cooperation are inevitable in the near future.
Q: Is there any possibility of military provocations in order to consolidate internal unity?
A: If North Korea feels pressured militarily (by the South Korea-U.S. alliance) and if punitive sanctions against it are imposed as has occurred in the recent past, then I guess we cannot rule out the possibility of North Korean military adventurism. Moreover, if the North is faced with an internal power struggle and other crises, military provocations might be utilized as a tactic to consolidate internal unity.
However, since the Kim Jong-un regime knows that military adventurism is neither helpful in stabilizing his leadership nor positive in consolidating internal unity, such would not be a realistic option for the regime.
Q: What are the prospects for North Korea-U.S. relations and the long-stalled Six-Party talks?
A: Although others may argue differently, I think North Korea will be ready to resume high-level talks with the U.S. and the Six-Party talks. As North Korea maintained contact with the U.S. during the mourning period for Kim’s death, I think the North has made it clear that its intention is to resume high-level talks with Washington.
After consolidating the power succession, Pyongyang will likely expand and intensify contact with Washington, and likewise, the U.S. will also expand and intensify the scope and degree of policy toward Pyongyang.
Q: What is your assessment of President Lee Myung-bak's policy toward North Korea?
A: For the last four years, the Lee administration maintained a hard-line policy, and as a result, inter-Korea relations inevitably suffered. Inter-Korean relations continue to deteriorate as the relations wallow in a stalemate. Without talks, without exchanges, without cooperation between the two Koreas, trust cannot be built. Under the circumstances, conflict and confrontation between the two Koreas has intensified.
With the death of Kim Jong-il, some changes are expected for the situation surrounding the Korean peninsula. Both the United States and China likely will actively engage North Korea for influence and initiative in Northeast Asia. As the new Kim Jong-un regime is launched, we must come up with a new policy and strategy toward North Korea. We must come up with a new paradigm in formulating policy toward North Korea, and we should take an active stance in implementing such new policy.
This is a crucial time for us to make a critical assessment of the existing policy and come up with a new policy that suits the changing situation on the Korean peninsula.
Who is Park Jae-kyu?
Born in August 1944, Park experienced a variety of careers in academia and the government focused on North Korean issues. He served as Minister of Unification between Dec. 1999 and March 2001 under the liberal presidency of Kim Dae-jung, during which he played a pivotal role in arranging the first inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang in 2000.
He earned a bachelor’s degree in political science in 1967 from Fairleigh Dickinson University in the United States. He earned a masters and doctor’s degree in the same subject from City University of New York in 1969 and Kyung-Hee University in Seoul in 1974, respectively. Appointed as president of Kyungnam University in 2003, he currently serves as presidential advisor on unification affairs.