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Troy Stangarone

Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.

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Troy Stangarone

Getting the AI-labor balance right

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are happening quickly. Anthropic's recent Mythos model is so proficient at discovering security flaws in code that it is being restricted to a handful of companies, along with the U.S. and U.K. governments, before being released more widely. While this raises questions about the future of cybersecurity, the ability of AI to conduct tasks more quickly and, in some cases, better than humans raises questions about how labor will coexist with AI in the workplace. This is already beginning to come to a head in Korea. Park Sang-man, the head of the Korean Metal Workers' Union (KMWU), is pushing for workers to be at the table as companies integrate AI into the workplace. He argues that he’s not against new technology, but that it should be used to reduce dangerous tasks rather than replace workers. One of the proximate causes driving KMWU’s concerns is Hyundai Motor Group’s interest in bringing AI-enabled robots onto the factory floor. Earlier this year, Hyundai unveiled the latest version of its Atlas humanoid robot. This AI-enabled version can

May 20, 2026By Troy Stangarone
Troy Stangarone

South Korea’s drone warfare gaps

Last month, I discussed how the use of drones and artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping the wars in Ukraine and Iran. While no two conflicts unfold in exactly the same manner, South Korea’s ability to integrate drone technologies into its military capabilities is becoming an essential component of maintaining deterrence against North Korea. In the current conflicts, Russia and Iran have turned to drones as both a replacement for and complement to ballistic missiles, using them to strike not only military targets but also civilian infrastructure. In Ukraine, both Russia and Ukraine have entered a period of rapid innovation in drone capabilities as the technology has become central to the conflict. The use of drones as an offensive tool has increased in both Ukraine and Iran for reasons of efficiency. Drones are significantly cheaper than traditional ballistic missiles. Russia’s Iskander‑M short‑range ballistic missile — similar to the KN‑23 that North Korea has provided to Moscow — costs between $2 million and $3 million to produce. Older legacy systems such as the Sov

Apr 13, 2026By Troy Stangarone
South Korea’s drone warfare gaps
Troy Stangarone

Drones, AI reshaping war

Over the last four years, multiple military conflicts have involved petroleum producing states. In the current U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, roughly a fifth of the world’s petroleum and liquefied natural gas has been cut off from global markets, spiking prices and raising concerns about an economic slowdown. While managing short‑term fuel shortages is urgent, Korea also faces a deeper strategic challenge. The rapid battlefield adoption of drones and artificial intelligence (AI) in these conflicts signals long‑term shifts that will reshape Korea’s security environment far beyond the present crisis. Drones have been used in limited military operations for years. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both sides used drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance in their frozen conflict. The United States also used drones for these purposes, as well as targeted attacks. The most relevant precursor to the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War of 2020, when Azerbaijan established air superiority over Armenia by using drone

Mar 12, 2026By Troy Stangarone
Troy Stangarone

What international system does Korea want?

At the Davos Forum last month, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that the international system is “in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.” While his remarks never directly mentioned the United States, they reflect changes to geopolitics that are being accelerated by the Donald Trump administration. They also frame the challenges countries like Korea face in an evolving international environment. To understand what is happening in U.S. policy, Washington’s relationship with Europe is informative, especially the recent drama over Greenland. Nominally, President Donald Trump framed taking over Greenland in terms of strengthening Arctic and U.S. national security, while preventing Russia or China from gaining a foothold on the strategic island. But the United States has always had options short of territorial concessions to achieve its national security goals. Under a 1951 agreement on the defense of Greenland with Denmark, the United States can already deploy troops and weapons to the island. Greenland also falls under NATO’s Article V, meaning any attack would draw a

Feb 19, 2026By Troy Stangarone
What international system does Korea want?
Troy Stangarone

Who comes after Trump isn’t the question to ask

With U.S. mid-term elections set to take place later this year, attention will begin to turn to Donald Trump’s lame duck period and who will succeed a president that has upended the United States’ relationships with allies and adversaries alike. For policy makers in Seoul, the question of Trump’s successor touches on whether the United States under a new administration might return to a more traditional role on security and trade policy or whether the changes we’ve seen are more permanent. It also holds implications for whether policy makers will need to continue making concessions to the Trump administration or can take firmer stands as Trump’s term approaches its end. Despite the inclination to view Vice President JD Vance as a strong contender to succeed Trump, history would suggest he faces a difficult road ahead. The last sitting U.S. vice president to win the presidency was George H.W. Bush in 1988. Prior to Bush, the last sitting vice president to win the presidency was Calvin Coolidge in 1920. The most recent vice president to run while still in office was Al Gore, wh

Jan 5, 2026By Troy Stangarone
Who comes after Trump isn’t the question to ask
Troy Stangarone

Pragmatic approach to 'END' initiative

Last month, I took part in two conferences focusing on the "END" initiative, the North Korea policy announced by President Lee Jae Myung at the U.N. General Assembly in September. While the policy is still under development, the conferences made clear that there are areas where more clarity would be beneficial if the policy is to take a pragmatic approach. The END initiative is built around three pillars: exchange, normalization and denuclearization. With inter-Korea cooperation at a halt, the Lee administration is seeking a pathway to restoring engagement and economic cooperation with North Korea that would allow for progress on the other two pillars. This won’t be easy. The Lee administration faces the most challenging environment for exchanges with North Korea of any recent administration. The situation is markedly different from even the Moon administration or the first Trump administration, as Pyongyang has fewer incentives to engage than it has in decades. North Korea has abandoned the idea of reunification and shifted to a policy of two hostile states. Even if Pyongyang conside

Dec 10, 2025By Troy Stangarone
Pragmatic approach to 'END' initiative
Troy Stangarone

US Supreme Court decision on trade won’t change much

The U.S. Supreme Court has expressed skepticism that the Trump administration has the authority to impose its “Liberation Day” tariffs during oral arguments. The questioning raised the prospect that the Supreme Court could rule against the Trump administration. But even an adverse ruling for the president is unlikely to change Korea’s calculus regarding the recently concluded trade agreement with the United States. The agreement reached at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, lowers U.S. tariffs on most of Korea’s exports to 15 percent and caps the cash transfer for investments in the United States at $20 billion per year. Korea has strong reasons for sticking to the deal regardless of how the Supreme Court rules. The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Korea and other countries were authorized by declaring a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) based on the United States’ persistent trade deficit. In the Trump administration’s estimation, this gave it the ability to unila

Nov 18, 2025By Troy Stangarone
Troy Stangarone

Korea needs different US trade deal than Japan

The Lee Jae Myung administration has put forward clear economic reasons why Korea needs a different trade arrangement with the United States than the one Japan accepted. However, if Korea is going to invest $350 billion in the United States, it should also push for the flexibility to take big bets on innovative projects rather than simply provide funds for the Trump administration to utilize. Japan’s agreement with the United States has a few components. While there is a Consultation Committee that makes recommendations to the Investment Committee, only the Consultation Committee will have Japanese representation. The Investment Committee has no obligation to take the advice of the Consultation Committee, and ultimately the President of the United States is the one who is empowered to select the projects from the Investment Committee’s recommendations. Japan has very few certainties under the agreement. It can decline projects, but then the United States can reimpose higher tariffs. The agreement also creates no legally binding rights, meaning that Japan has no certainty that the T

Oct 9, 2025By Troy Stangarone
Korea needs different US trade deal than Japan
Troy Stangarone

Managing Korea’s shifting foreign policy challenges

Every new administration faces unexpected foreign policy challenges, but the current moment may be different. Rather than facing unexpected challenges, the new Lee Jae-myung administration faces the culmination of recent foreign policy trends that require Seoul to rethink how it approaches foreign policy. The world is undergoing geopolitical shifts. These shifts aren’t just driven by the rise of China, but also the growing spread of populism in Western nations. Much as China’s rise is the culmination of decades of economic growth, so too are the populist changes driven by longer-term grievances of Western voters. Both of these trends are also creating more space for North Korea to explore its geopolitical options. In the United States, populism is reshaping U.S. foreign policy. Viewed through the lens of traditional U.S.-Korea relations, recent policy decisions by the Trump administration may be surprising. However, they are quite predictable given the nature of U.S. populism, Trump’s policy perspective and his greater control over the U.S. government than during his first term i

Sep 11, 2025By Troy Stangarone
Managing Korea’s shifting foreign policy challenges
Troy Stangarone

New Korea-US trade agreement is only the beginning

Next week President Lee Jae Myung will meet with U.S. President Donald Trump for the first time. One of the top matters will be to resolve the remaining issues from the trade agreement reached last month. This will be a challenging process. Both Japan and the EU have faced difficulties reaching a final understanding with the United States. Korea may as well. However, even if all the remaining issues are resolved, the outcome should be tempered with the realization that any understanding reached in Washington is the beginning of a process instead of the final word on the U.S. and Korea’s trade relationship. Donald Trump is taking a different approach to trade this time. During his first administration, the United States struck deals that did not produce the desired results. Its experiences with China, and to a lesser extent Korea, illustrate the difficulties the Trump administration faces in achieving its goals — reducing the trade deficit, restoring manufacturing to the United States and ensuring the U.S. maintains a technological advantage. During the first Trump administration, t

Aug 19, 2025By Troy Stangarone
New Korea-US trade agreement is only the beginning
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