Opinion - The Korea Times

Real challenge after PyeongChang

By Tong KimEvents leading up to the opening of the PyeongChang Olympics have proven once again how difficult it is to make progress on the most pressing issue of peace on the Korean Peninsula. While a significant breakthrough was noticed in inter-Korean relations, an open disagreement was disclosed between Seoul and Washington over what to do now or how to move toward the eventual denuclearization of North Korea.Vice President Mike Pence’s hawkish statements on the North and his deliberate boycott of an opening reception hosted by President Moon, where he would sit at the same table with Pyongyang’s nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam, made it blindingly clear that the U.S. does not support Moon’s reconciliatory approach to the North. Pence simply ignored Kim. It created an awkward moment for Moon, and raised a question of diplomatic courtesy.Watching Pence’s visit to Japan, Pyongyang had said they had no intention of meeting with him during the Olympics nor would they “beg for talks.” On the other hand, Moon all along wanted to see his dialogue wit

Feb 11, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Conflicting interests in Olympics

By Tong KimAs the 2018 Winter Olympics approach, major players of influence over the Korean Peninsula ― including the two Koreas, the U.S., Japan and China ― have divergent hopes and concerns over what might evolve from North Korean participation in the Games. Seoul hopes the ongoing talks with the North will proceed beyond a successful hosting of the Olympics toward lasting improvements in inter-Korean relations that can actually contribute to a peace settlement and eventual denuclearization. The Moon government is keenly aware of potential pitfalls of discord with Washington and losing domestic support for its progressive approach to the North. Moon’s popularity is slipping amid rising public concerns that the inclusion of Pyongyang’s game plan might compromise Seoul’s intrinsic interests. Pyongyang hopes to run a propaganda campaign showing it is a normal state and can work with any countries that are not hostile to it, underscoring that its nuclear weapons are not to threaten or attack any country that does not threaten to invade it with nuclear weapon

Jan 28, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Thorny road to denuclearization

By Tong KimIn the past few days, there has been a significant development on the Korean Peninsula: an outcome of high-level inter-Korean talks on Jan. 9 that resulted in assuring the safety of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics to begin next month and also opened a fresh window of opportunity to reduce tension and hold possible talks on denuclearization.In the talks, North Korea announced it will send a large-scale delegation to the Olympics and agreed to work with the South to improve inter-Korean relations. The North restored a military line of communication with the South and agreed to resume military talks for reducing tension and preventing accidental conflicts along the DMZ.However, the first challenge for military talks to confront will likely be the North side’s unacceptable demand that the South end its joint exercises with U.S. forces, which have been temporarily postponed until after the Olympic Games. Moderation of the scale or rescheduling of the exercise may come up for discussion. In this context, it might be safer to put off military talks until after the Olympics

Jan 14, 2018By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Korean Peninsula in 2018

By Tong KimThe year 2017 was a year of turbulence and tension on the Korean Peninsula. Perhaps, the biggest blessing for all was that somehow war was avoided. There were close escapes from risks of war caused by North Korea’s provocations, scary shows of force in reaction by the U.S., and from a bombastic exchange of bellicose rhetoric between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. In the South, conservative President Park Geun-hye was impeached and fired. She is still going through a criminal trial. Moon Jae-In, a liberal, was elected president in a special election. Many agree these extraordinary events could not have happened without the power of the people’s “candlelight vigil.” Many things, including Seoul’s policy on the North, have changed during the last six months, except for the constitutional continuity that highlighted the maturity of democracy in the country.Moon’s government has been struggling with a strategic approach, proven ineffective thus far, to improve relations with the North toward a goal of reducing ten

Dec 31, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Hope for peace on Korean Peninsula

By Tong KimIn Beijing last Thursday, President Xi Jinping of China and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea agreed on four important principles: not to tolerate war on the Korean Peninsula, to support a denuclearized Korean Peninsula, to achieve denuclearization through dialogue and negotiations, and to improve inter-Korean relations towards the end of denuclearization. Opposition to war and the desire for denuclearization of North Korea are the universal goals shared by all peace-loving people. The Sino-South Korean opposition to war should not be construed as a constraint on the efficacy of U.S. policy options that include military action to curb the North Korean nuclear and missile programs.On Dec. 12 in Washington, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson outlined a comprehensive, revealing description of U.S. policy on North Korea, in which he said ― without approval of President Trump ― that Washington is ready to talk to Pyongyang without the preconditions it had long attached to any dialogue. He said: “We’re ready to talk anytime North Korea would like to talk, and we&rsq

Dec 15, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Unattractive options on N. Korea

By Tong KimFollowing last Wednesday’s launch of the latest North Korean ICBM ― the “Hwasong-15 ― that soared to an altitude of 4,475 kilometers and flew 950 kilometers in 53 minutes, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared his country had realized “the cause of completing the state nuclear force (and) the cause of building a rocket power.” Was it a surprise that the launch came after a two-month pause, from which some were quick to read as a possible sign of change in the Pyongyang regime to look for negotiation, as pressure through sanctions was mounting to strangle the North Korean economy? No. They were wrong.Two weeks ago, this column suggested that North Korea will continue to advance its nuclear/missile programs: it was only pausing while focusing on the economy, conserving scarce resources and working on the advancement of technology. There is no major dispute over an assessment of the new missile’s range ― that if fired for a standard trajectory it could reach any part of the U.S. homeland. An expert writing on the “38 North” website

Dec 3, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Compounding of N. Korea issue

By Tong KimIn the wake of Trump’s Asia trip and following a two-month pause of North Korea’s kinetic provocations, the Korean peninsula appears to have been relieved from the risk of an imminent military conflict, although high tensions continue.  A clear path to the resolution of the nuclear/missile issue is still missing. Trump’s trip was focused on the North Korean nuclear threat, U.S. trade imbalances, and on a new, broader U.S. Asia policy ― for trade and security interests ― for the Indo-Pacific region. Throughout his trip, Trump did well, by sticking to the scripts, away from his usual bombastic rhetoric on twitter or off the teleprompter.Trump’s position remains unchanged: apply maximum pressure and sanctions of worldwide unity against Kim Jong Un until he gives up his nuclear weapons, which few believe will happen. Military options remain on the table, which increasingly become more unrealistic and less credible for implementation.In Seoul, Trump warned North Korea “not to underestimate or try us,” underscoring the unparalleled U

Nov 19, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Mending ties between Seoul and Beijing

By Tong KimPerhaps the biggest diplomatic development in Asia in recent weeks was an agreement between South Korea and China, in which both countries said they will try to put their estranged relationship “back on a normal track.”This will end the yearlong acrimony over South Korea’s installation of an American missile defense system ― the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) ― that precipitated China’s massive economic retaliation, costing the Korean economy over $7.5 billion.China continues to oppose the deployment of THAAD. Beijing maintained from the beginning that the missile defense system with intrusive radar undermines China’s sovereign security. Yet China seems to have decided to live with the one THAAD battery deployed in Seongju, South Korea, which Seoul and Washington repeatedly said was only for deterrence against the North Korean nuclear/missile threat.China’s modified position must have been influenced by South Korea’s “position” or “pledge” for “three No’s”: no additional THAAD

Nov 5, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Beyond sanctions on N. Korea

By Tong KimAs President Trump will visit Asian capitals next month, including Tokyo, Seoul and Beijing, many analysts are busy figuring out what impact his trip may have on the prospect of a solution to North Korea’s nuclear and missile threat. Upfront, I do not see the likelihood of any dramatic change in the current course of a “pressure campaign” that is spearheaded by Washington, with the strong support of its allies and partners. There will be no big deal with China, no “Korea passing,” no agreement on a trilateral alliance that will include Japan, no clarification of military options and probably no toning down of bellicose rhetoric. There will be no announcement to redeploy tactical nuclear weapons to Korea; no change to the goal of denuclearization. And, certainly, no consideration for accepting a nuclear North Korea.There will be reconfirmation of the alliances and the U.S. security commitment to its allies in Japan and South Korea with the full spectrum of U.S. military capability. There will be a renewed pledge for close coordination

Oct 22, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Theory of two madmen

By Tong KimEverybody knows that Kim Jong-un will not negotiate away his nuclear-tipped missiles and is determined to complete the development of an operational nuclear force that can strike the United States. Donald Trump does not believe dialogue is the answer, especially not at this time.  He is more inclined to a military solution.  Nobody knows what will be a good solution or an exit strategy. On or around Oct. 10, the anniversary of the Korean Workers Party’s foundation, Pyongyang may hold another new ballistic missile test or launch a second ballistic missile from a submarine. Another nuclear test is unlikely this time.  The North does not need more tests of any kind.The possibility of war is real ― Kim Jong-un and Trump are on a hair trigger. Both are practicing the “madman theory” to scare their opponents, with neither man backing down.    Neither is crazy or “moron.” It is relatively easier to read Kim’s mind than Trump’s. Kim is neither irrational nor suicidal. He wants to protect his regime and hi

Oct 8, 2017By Tong Kim

Tong Kim

Read more

Real challenge after PyeongChang

Conflicting interests in Olympics

Thorny road to denuclearization

Korean Peninsula in 2018

Hope for peace on Korean Peninsula

Unattractive options on N. Korea

Compounding of N. Korea issue

Mending ties between Seoul and Beijing

Beyond sanctions on N. Korea

Theory of two madmen

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