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Tong Kim

Tong Kim is a Washington correspondent and columnist for The Korea Times.

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Tong Kim

To avoid nuclear war

By Tong Kim  Despite an ominous exchange of mutual threats between North Korea and the U.S.-ROK allies that has reached its highest level of danger in a long time, there is good reason to believe a major war is not imminent: the North Korean leadership is not suicidal at this point.  If war breaks out, it would likely be a nuclear war, if the North Korean threats were taken seriously and in view of demonstrated U.S. resolve to respond with nuclear capable weapons.  The Gaeseong Industrial Complex is still in operation, a sign of no imminent nuclear war.Pyongyang’s threatening rhetoric has put Washington on alert to take them seriously.  The United States added 14 ground-based interceptors on its west coast to prepare for missile attacks from the North.  U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said on March 28, “We have to take seriously every provocative, bellicose word and action,” the North has made.  The North has cut off military communication lines to the South, and declared it is ready to settle the account with the U.S. in battle

Mar 31, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Coping with more threats

By Tong Kim An all-out campaign of belligerent rhetoric by North Korea included threats “to turn Seoul and Washington into a sea of fire” by a preemptive nuclear strike. This particular threat does not seem to be taken seriously by Washington, which believes North Korea does not yet have the capability to attack the United States.  Many believe the North would not use its nuclear weapons on the South because it would be suicidal for the North.  However, Pyongyang may consider the option of using nuclear weapons, if, and probably only if, it determines its survival is directly threatened toward the point of collapse.  North Koreans should also know they would not be able to survive a major war against the combined U.S.-ROK forces.  Seoul and Washington are concerned about a possible attack on the South or another provocative missile and/or nuclear test.Although no signs of another missile or nuclear test have been detected, North Korea is ratcheting up its war preparations on both coasts bordering the South, mobilizing wartime resources and co

Mar 17, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Policy shift on N. Korea

By Tong Kim North Korea’s third nuclear test in January has forced the new government of President Park Geun-hye to retreat from a “trust building process,” aimed to improve inter-Korean relations and making progress in denuclearization, to a security-first pressure policy similar to her predecessor’s policy, which was tried and failed. The prospects of inter-Korean relations are not promising at this time, due to the aftermath of the provocative nuclear test.    The Park government, as well as the second Obama administration, seems to have no idea on how to move forward to a peaceful settlement of the North Korean issue. It supports more ineffective sanctions that do not faze the North Koreans, and plans to build a “tailored” deterrent, which includes first-strike capabilities against the threats of North Korean nuclear weapons and conventional forces.  The increased deterrent is likely to be followed by increased tension and an arms race.   The president said on March 1, “By nuclear development a

Mar 3, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

New strategy on N. Korea

By Tong KimWith a third nuclear test on Feb. 12, North Korea has burnt its bridges, destroying the hope of denuclearization that the international community held onto for the past two decades and blowing up a chance for renewed inter-Korean engagement under the incoming administration in Seoul. The Korean Peninsula has become a hotter flash point. It is clear now that the North would never give up its nuclear weapons. The North will keep developing a nuclear weapons deliverable capability that can target the United States beyond South Korea and Japan. Pyongyang claimed that the latest test was conducted with “the use of a smaller and lighter atomic device” and its nuclear deterrence “has become diversified.”After a successful satellite launch in December, Pyongyang is going to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (IBMs) that can deliver miniaturized nuclear warheads. While it has not been confirmed that highly enriched uranium was used in the test, as insinuated by Pyongyang’s wording of “diversification of nuclear deterrence,

Feb 17, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Sanctions and tension

By Tong KimNorth Korea has vowed to conduct a “high-profile” third nuclear test, targeting the United States and warning against South Korea’s participation in the implementation of a new U.N. sanction.  U.S.-ROK military sources conclude that preparations for the test have been completed for some time at its underground nuclear site at Punggye-ri.  It could be conducted anytime.Another nuclear test will certainly aggravate the already heightened tension in Korea; imposing a difficult security and diplomatic challenge for the incoming Korean government and the second-term Barack Obama administration.  South Korea’s next president says she will take “strong measures” through international cooperation against new North Korean provocations.       The North tested its first plutonium bomb on Oct. 9, 2006, with an estimated yield of one kiloton and its second one on May 25, 2009, which was assessed to have produced a more successful yield of 2 to 7 kilotons, according to different schools of scientists.  The first

Feb 3, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Challenges for Park

By Tong KimThe coming inauguration of a new administration raises expectations of a better life in Korea.  Even those who opposed Park Geun-hye  ― 48 percent of the voters ― should hope she succeeds. If she fails, the country as a whole will not become a better place to live. Remember no government can satisfy everybody.There are many difficult domestic and foreign policy challenges facing the first woman president of Korea.  One of her first challenges is how to implement over 200 campaign promises she made that would cost about 130 trillion won without raising taxes or increased growth. During the last election, both presidential candidates ran on similar welfare programs, espousing the role of “big government” in intervening to help the people, as they were more motivated for wooing voters.  Park did not discuss how she would pay for the programs. She seemed unmindful of the fiscal limits of the government.The President-elect reaffirmed last week that she would keep all her election promises.  Due to limited revenue, many pundits and the p

Jan 20, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Park's foreign policy

By Tong KimPresident-elect Park Geun-hye has appointed former Defense Minister Kim Jang-su as foreign policy point man for her transition team that will prepare for next month’s inauguration of the new administration. Although foreign policy, including the North Korea issue, was not a dominant campaign issue, it is directly linked to most important national interests for survival, security and domestic tranquility.Kim was noted for standing tall without bowing to late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il during an arrival ceremony for former President Roh Moo-hyun’s visit to Pyongyang in October 2007.  Subsequently, Kim was picked up by the then Grand National Party as a member of the National Assembly. Kim also worked on Park’s election campaign.In addition to Kim, two other experts were appointed to serve the transition subcommittee on “diplomacy, national security and unification.”  Yoon Byung-sae, a former presidential secretary for national security and foreign affairs, and Choi Dae-seok, a professor of North Korean studies, were chosen to join

Jan 6, 2013By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

2 crucial months before inauguration

By Tong KimThe election of Park Geun-hye as the country’s first female president opens a new horizon of democratic development in Korea.  She received an undisputable mandate to lead the nation for the next five years with 51.6 percent of the vote with 15,773,128 votes, whereas her opponent Moon Jae-in gained 48 percent with 14,693,632 votes. However, there are many formidable challenges lying ahead for the Park administration that will be inaugurated on Feb. 25 next year.  In American presidential politics, it is said that a new administration’s success often depends on what it does in its first 100 days.  By contrast, it appears in Korea that the first 67 days from election to inauguration as president may determine the fate of a new administration.Since the election President-elect Park Geun-hye has so far been doing just fine, saying the right things helpful to pulling together the divided voters, reaffirming her commitment to carry out her campaign promises including “a new era of new change and reform.”  She understands that more

Dec 23, 2012By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Rocket or missile

By Tong KimNorth Korea says it will launch another three-stage rocket between December 10 and 17 to put a “practical satellite” into orbit.  The United States and its allies condemn such a launch as “provocative,” as it uses the same ballistic missile technology that is prohibited for use by the North under U.N. Security Council resolution 1874.The problem is that the North is not fazed by international law or international pressure, and it is most likely to go ahead and launch its satellite as planned. North Korea very well understands why the international community is concerned about their rocket launches:  the same rocket could be developed as a delivery system for nuclear warheads.For the North, missile and nuclear development has been a part of its survival strategy to protect itself from the ever-enhancing South Korean economic and military power, backed by the robust alliance with the United States. It is hard for Pyongyang to believe that it would be better off without missiles or nuclear weapons, as it is told by Washington.    &n

Dec 9, 2012By Tong Kim
Tong Kim

Obama's Asia policy and Korea

By Tong KimFor a first foreign trip after his re-election, President Barack Obama chose Asia last week, starting with Thailand, making a first ever trip to Burma as the U.S. president to go there, and concluding his tour in Cambodia, where he attended the East Asia Summit as part of his effort to rebalance toward Asia-Pacific. Obama’s Asia trip speaks of the priority he places on the area. The U.S. is a Pacific power. This region accounts for a quarter of the global gross domestic product, which is expected to grow to nearly 30 percent by 2015, and it accounts for 25 percent of U.S. exports, supporting 2.4 million American jobs. In short, U.S. trade and investment will be critical for its economic recovery.The Obama administration believes that regional security, which continues to serve as “the foundation of the region’s phenomenal economic growth,” requires a stabilizing American presence. For example, the U.S. is committed to carrying out its security obligations to South Korea against the threat of North Korea.U.S. national security advisor Tom Donilo

Nov 25, 2012By Tong Kim
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