Tom Plate

Negotiating With N. Korea

By Tom Plate In a few months a former U.S. president will probably be asked to travel to North Korea in pursuit of military denuclearization. His name won't be George W. Bush, of course. It will be Jimmy Carter, or maybe Bill Clinton. Or one other person (see below). In 1994, Carter did exactly that. Meeting personally with then-maximum North Korean leader Kim Il-sung, the founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, in Pyongyang, the former U.S. president hammered out an understanding that was to lead to the 1994 Agreed Framework (the latter was negotiated in Geneva). The lead U.S. negotiator in Geneva was ace American diplomat Robert Gallucci, who is now the well-regarded dean of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. But that war-stopping agreement was achieved not simply because the U.S. was so ably represented, but also because the basics of the accord had been clearly spelled out in that Kim-Carter meeting in North Korea's capital. The key to the overall accord, therefore, was the top-down approach to diplomacy. This is virtually the only m

What They Actually Meant

By Tom Plate In diplomacy in particular and world affairs in general, public figures do not often say what they truly mean, especially in public, so you have to listen to them very carefully. This does not mean that they are necessarily deliberate liars; sometimes they don't know what to say, or are simply too polite to say it out loud. As Charles M. Talleyrand, the legendary 19th century French diplomat, noted famously: ``Speech was given to man to disguise his thoughts." Perhaps we might add that speech was also given to man to cover up the times when he has no thoughts. There are three recent examples of one or the other: The Japanese Jumble: How to say no without overtly saying no. One of our favorite Talleyrand-type diplo-ducks ordinarily comes in response to a request that is all but impossible to grant. The phrase is particularly characteristic of, though not a wholly owned subsidiary, of high-ranking Japanese officials and diplomats. The wonderful phrase is: ``That will be difficult." What it really means is that what you are asking isn't going to happen in a t

Combined Destiny

By Tom Plate Here's the problem: Serious intellectual narrowing can happen to even the brightest folk once nested down on the East Coast. They become preoccupied (almost neurotically, almost provincially) with the problems of the past ― especially with the Middle East and Europe ― and lose sight of the new problems and opportunities of this 21st century. They become lost in the inner space of a 20th century time warp. Yet, it is the near-unanimous opinion of everyone, that the big news of the current century is the whale-like emergence of the Asia-Pacific region as the new center of global geopolitical gravity. People on the East Coast sometimes lose track of this, and thus it is our noble civic duty from this end of the U.S. to remind them what's what. After all, before too long, the presidential mind and body of Barack Obama will take leave from his friends in hometown Chicago to establish White House residence in the intensely provincial environment of Washington D.C. Concerned West-Coasters everywhere need to remind him that ``we stand on the western edge of the Pacific

Obama’s Asian Experience

By Tom Plate BEVERLY HILLS ― Let me explain why the Asian political experience, at least since the eighties, offers us insight into the triumph of Barack H. Obama. It starts with a simple idea: the key role of a middle class in a democracy. My university students used to be subjected endlessly by the world's most long-winded professor to lectures about ``the rise in Asia of an increasingly assertive middle class.'' It was a theme that was reiterated pitilessly: If there was one single idea from which my Asia media students could not escape, it was the contribution of a growing middle class in transforming societies. Undoubtedly, my captive students tired greatly of its many reiterations by quarter's end, but the professor never did. To him, it was the key to understanding rising democracy movements in sprawling East Asia, from South Korea to Taiwan ― and perhaps someday in China. Who knows? Consider that, until a little more than two decades ago, South Korea and Taiwan used to be governed by the worst sort of authoritarian regimes. Detention of political opponents

An Election to Remember

BY Tom Plate BEVERLY HILLS ― The weight of the entire world will soon sit ominously on the shoulders of the elected successor to President George W. Bush. It's too much weight to bear for any one human being, no matter the level of intellect, magnificent proposed policies, history-smashing background or personal magicality. The totality of all of it is simply too overwhelming for one man. Under current worldwide economic circumstances ― which are frightening and unpredictable ― a normal person might rationally decide that only an irrational person would want to seize the crown of the presidency of the United States at this particular point in history. In this formulation, then, the real winner of the race to the White House is the loser, if, as many predict, the next several years are to be seriously troubled ones at best ― and an overall nightmare at worst. No one, to be sure, sets out purposely to lose the American presidency with a paradoxical calculation of that kind. After all, only those with phenomenal egos and almost monstrous ambitions ever apply for this hu

Colin Powell’s Warning

By Tom Plate It was a revealing moment in American politics. In endorsing Barack Obama for president of the United States over fellow Republican John McCain, Colin Powell was not simply giving his blessing to this candidate. That was the easy part. The harder part was getting up the courage to say something profoundly worrisome about America's Republican Party, with which the mild-spoken military hero has been identified for years. And what he said over the weekend was that today's Republican Party is no longer the useful, broad-gauged corrective to the Democratic Party that it once had been and still needs to be. In a very large, multi-branched democracy such as the U.S., broad-based political parties that hold the other in check and compete vigorously for voter approval are essential for political stability. Extremist splinter parties accomplish little and ordinarily achieve even less. The generally pathetic history of third parties in America is illustrative. So when one of the major parties begins to drift, however slowly, in the direction of an extremist splinter pa

US Leader and World

Pope and Crisis

By Tom Plate BEVERLY HILLS, California ― Should we even be listening to religious leaders when they opine on the financial crisis? Ted Sorensen, in his marvelous new book ``Counselor: A Life at the Edge of History," is absolutely right to assert that in the United States, at least, ``the wall between church and state … has served both church and state so well for so long in this country." As a very close advisor to both current presidential candidates and former advisor to President John F. Kennedy, this gifted speechwriter and consultant helped JFK deflect concern back when people thought that a Roman Catholic could not govern this nation impartially ― on the spurious ground that he'd be taking backstage orders from the Pope. That fear was absurd and, in fact, worries about a Catholic candidate perished forever in the wake of JFK's inspiring performance as President, tragically short-lived though it was. But the residual distrust of any clerical comment on contemporary policy issues will often trigger knee-jerk suspicion rather than careful attention in this political cultu

Bernankian Instinct

By Tom Plate BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. ― Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board, may be dead wrong about the urgent need for the proposed $700 billion this former professor and his buddy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, have been peddling to Congress this week. Or he may be dead right about the necessity of this massive bank bailout. It is also possible that, Bernanke, highly regarded by his former Princeton, might be better equipped to cope with the calm of the academy than the chaos of crisis. Perhaps ― but one thing for certain Bernanke is not: He is not Japanese. Here's what I mean: Bernanke is not only an accredited expert on the causes of and solutions to the Great U.S. Depression of the '30s, but the Fed Chair has also articulated strong public views about the overly prolonged Japanese recession in the nineties. To simplify his perspective to the degree possible, the professor believes (in both cases) that the worst thing that was done and the worst thing that one could ever do is for the country's central bank to do nothing. Get where we

Is He Better Dead or Alive?

By Tom Plate BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. ― War, natural disaster and stupid manmade accidents are always but a snap of the fingers away. A fierce hurricane levels some parts of proud Texas, and a railroad routing error triggers a killer train collision in California. Even seemingly eternal symbols could be here today and then gone tomorrow. Who's to say that the leaning Tower of Pisa might not some day lean over a bit more and topple down on all the linguine below? Who or what might unnerve the almighty Eiffel Tower and bring French pride down to size? And we all know what happened to New York's Twin Towers, once such steely symbols of capitalism. Such volatility is present too with the seemingly unchanging geopolitical icon known generally as North Korea: Like the Berlin Wall, its leader Kim Jong-il has looked like a strongman who would never fall. Unlike the Wall, in point of fact, he still hasn't fallen. But last week the son of the founder of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea started to look shakier than ever. Reports stated he has suffered a bad stroke