Opinion - The Korea Times

N. Korea - Winner or loser?

By John BurtonCould North Korea benefit from the COVID-19 crisis? The conventional view is that the virus poses a significant threat to North Korea's stability by weakening its economy and putting severe stress on its public health systems.But if North Korea does succeed in becoming a “clean land” free of the virus, as it claims, it could strengthen the regime's argument to its people that the ideology of juche, or self-reliance, and an authoritarian government place it at an advantage in dealing with extraordinary threats. That system has already proved resilient in surviving other crises such as the famine of the 1990s ― although at the cost of least 600,000 lives.Pyongyang might also reap more immediate benefits. The pandemic appears to have put on hold its confrontation with the U.S. over its nuclear weapon program as Washington turns its attention to addressing its growing virus crisis at home. In addition, the pandemic could lead to the erosion of the international sanctions regime against North Korea.The big question is whether North Korea's rapid but draconian res

Mar 30, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

Korea leads the way

By John BurtonAlthough there has been criticism by some Koreans about the government's response to the coronavirus, the country is seen in the U.S. as the gold standard in dealing with the outbreak.Commentators in the U.S. media have widely praised Korea for its robust efforts in tackling the illness and ask why America cannot do the same. Although the number of cases in Korea is around 8,000 at the time of writing this column, the outbreak appears on a downward trajectory. In contrast, although the number of cases in the U.S. is officially nearing 3,000, most experts estimate that the true number is at least 10,000 so far.We really don't know how many Americans have been infected since diagnostic testing has not really begun. It is in this area that Korea has especially been celebrated for its conduct.Korea has been successful in containing the outbreak by identifying and quarantining those with COVID-19 as quickly as possible to reduce transmission of the disease. This reflects the fact that Korea learned its lessons in dealing with earlier disease outbreaks, such as SARS in 20119

Mar 16, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

North Korea and COVID-19

By John BurtonAs South Korea struggles with the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak, is North Korea's response to the pneumonia-like illness proving more effective?In January, the country quickly went into an extensive lockdown, effectively sealing itself off from all outside contact. Travel in and out of North Korea was suspended and foreign visitors were quarantined until last weekend. Travel within the country has also apparently been curbed.Other steps, including examining rivers and other drinking water sources for the virus, reflect the thorough and comprehensive nature of Pyongyang's response. The local media is giving surprisingly detailed reports about “anti-epidemic” efforts.As a result, North Korea claims it has not experienced any cases of COVID-19 so far, although that cannot be independently verified given the state's secretive nature. There is plenty of skepticism about the claim amid reports that a few COVID-19 cases have been detected in Pyongyang and Sinuiju.These tough measures play to the strengths of the country's authoritarian system. But they also revea

Mar 2, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

Movie magic

By John BurtonHollywood producers call it “capturing lightning in a bottle” ― trying to create a film with unique characteristics that unexpectedly appeals to a broad audience. That effort to trap something elusive and fleeting seems almost an impossible task. The film “Parasite” falls into that category.Although it won the Palme D'Or at the Cannes Film Festival and many American film critics praised it as the best movie of 2019, it's still astounding to me that a Korea art house flick with subtitles won the Oscar for best picture. Perhaps more amazing is that this is the first time that a Korean film had been nominated for the award and won it as the first non-English language film in this category.The odds seemed heavily stacked against "Parasite." Its director, Bong Joon-ho, had complained about the insularity of Hollywood. Suddenly, he was the recipient of four Oscars―including ones for best original screenwriting, best foreign-language film, best director and best picture. That is an annual personal record that has only been matched by Walt Disney in 1954

Feb 17, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

Turning the corner?

By John BurtonAre international sanctions hurting North Korea? Maybe less than many expected. North Korea's economy grew by 1.8 percent in 2019 after shrinking the two previous years, according to a recent U.N. estimate, which also predicted that growth could accelerate over the next two years.Meanwhile, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed that the country had produced a “bumper harvest” despite earlier warnings that agricultural production would be the worst in a decade.Nonetheless, these claims have to be treated with skepticism. Take the U.N. economic estimate, for example. Given the lack of official economic data from North Korea, the U.N. estimate is based on guesswork. Moreover, the headline growth figure of 1.8 percent is less impressive when the U.N. also estimates that inflation increased to 4.8 percent in 2019 and is likely to maintain the same rate over the next two years, which lowers the “real” economic growth rate.What the U.N. probably got right is that North Korea's economic performance last year improved over a disastrous 2018. This may be

Feb 3, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

Good day sunshine

By John BurtonOne of the puzzles about North Korea is that while it has the scientific talent to make nuclear bombs and missiles and launch satellites, it has trouble developing and adopting basic technology for everyday use.Many critics would argue that this shows Pyongyang's emphasis on defense technology at the expense of civilian uses. But if that is the case, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's speech at the Workers' Party plenary in late December signaled it was time for a change.Kim said there should be a renewed focus on science and technology to improve the economy. This appeared to be an acknowledgement that international sanctions are unlikely to end soon and that North Korea needs to develop technological solutions to survive. This would include ways to solve electricity shortages and raise agricultural production. Kim noted the need to raise crop yields by “actively introducing scientific farming methods.”Kim's emphasis on scientific solutions for civilian use reflects his announcement several years ago to replace the songun “military first” policy

Jan 20, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

A greener North Korea

By John BurtonLast month, the Seoul-based U.N. Green Climate Fund (GCF) agreed to provide North Korea with $752,090 in funding to help the country deal with climate change.With North Korea suffering from declining agricultural production as a result of climate change, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has been appointed to help lead the initiative in cooperation with North Korea's Ministry of Land and Environment Protection.In making its request for the funds, Pyongyang acknowledged that it lacked coordination among government agencies in formulating national climate change adaptation plans. The program is meant to improve expertise in North Korea to “better understand climate change” and “options for low emission” strategies by educating officials in several ministries, including agriculture, power and fisheries.North Korea realizes that it is facing a climate change problem, exemplified by rising temperatures, changes in seasonal agricultural growing patterns, and severe weather conditions, including droughts and typhoons. This demands action

Jan 6, 2020By John Burton

John Burton

Here we go again

By John BurtonThis year's holiday season will be less than happy on the Korean Peninsula. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is promising to deliver an unwelcome “Christmas gift” to U.S. President Donald Trump in response to stalled negotiations on denuclearization.A big stumbling block is Washington's refusal to ease sanctions until Pyongyang makes substantial progress in ending its nuclear and missile programs.Nearly a year ago, that logjam appeared to have been broken. Leaks in press ahead of the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi in February suggested that the U.S. was willing to gradually lift sanctions in return for interim moves by North Korea toward denuclearization.But at the summit Trump took a much harder line. He insisted that North Korea completely give up its nuclear program before the U.S. would proceed with sanctions relief. This “all or nothing” offer reflected the influence of John Bolton, then Trump's hawkish national security adviser, as well as the president's own calculation that he needed a big diplomatic win as he faced possible impeachment.There a

Dec 23, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Human cost of sanctions

By John BurtonOne of the ironies of Donald Trump's engagement policy with North Korea over the past two years, is that while he praises the “beautiful letters” he has received from Kim Jong-un, he has done nothing to ease the “maximum pressure” sanctions that he imposed in 2017 when the U.S. president was in his “fire and fury” phase. Trump's refusal to move the needle is a key reason why Kim is now threatening to pursue a more aggressive course in dealing with the U.S. at the end of the year.Sanctions are a blunt instrument that often hurts ordinary people rather than their intended target of the elite. Little attention has been paid to how international sanctions have affected the lives of the average North Korean. But a recent report, “The Human Costs and Gendered Impact of Sanctions on North Korea,” commissioned by the activist women's group Korea Peace Now, attempts to address their effect on humanitarian aid and development programs in the country.“There is increasing evidence that the sanctions regime on [North Korea] is ha

Dec 9, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Warning signs in N. Korea

By John BurtonNorth Korea recently urged its farmers to voluntarily contribute a larger portion of their harvests to state warehouses to feed troops and government workers.This was the latest indication that this year's harvest may be worse than initially predicted due to droughts and typhoons that hit its grain-producing regions. North Korea's crop output last year reportedly hit its lowest level in a decade and this year's harvest could be 9 percent lower than last year.Geoglam, a Swiss crop monitoring organization, recently reported that the main harvest in South and North Hwanghae and South Pyongan, provinces the country's breadbasket, was below average, based on satellite images. This was due to “irregular rainfall and low reservoir levels during the summer,” which hampered irrigation. South Hwanghae Province, for example, reportedly received only half the average rainfall from April to July.In September, the country was then hit by Typhoon Lingling, which flooded farmland in these regions. U.N. field visits found that maize, rice, chestnut and vegetable crops were d

Nov 25, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Read more

N. Korea - Winner or loser?

Korea leads the way

North Korea and COVID-19

Movie magic

Turning the corner?

Good day sunshine

A greener North Korea

Here we go again

Human cost of sanctions

Warning signs in N. Korea

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