Opinion - The Korea Times

Yoon's revenge

By John BurtonPresident Yoon Suk-yeol's efforts to restore the power of public prosecutors represents a key test for the future of Korea's democracy.The former chief prosecutor has spent his first few months in office determined to enhance the role of prosecutors in the government. He has appointed many of his former prosecutor colleagues to senior posts in the presidential office. Meanwhile, prosecutors are investigating the alleged “forced repatriation” of North Korean fishermen in 2019 in what is seen by critics as an attempt to go after Yoon's predecessor, former President Moon Jae-in.The Yoon administration has also launched a controversial measure to give the Ministry of the Interior and Security oversight over key functions by the National Police Agency, threatening to erode its recently acquired authority over criminal investigations that was held previously by the prosecution service. Critics claim the police are at risk of losing their autonomy as an independent agency and becoming vulnerable to political pressure. The recent series of actions highlights once ag

Aug 22, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Sleepwalking into war

By John BurtonSeveral years ago, Christopher Clark, a distinguished British historian, wrote a book called “The Sleepwalkers” about how Europe stumbled into World War I in the summer of 1914. He described how the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian heir, Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which was the trigger event for the war, was initially ignored by most of the international community. Britain was distracted by a political crisis and France was focused on a celebrity murder trial, for example.Although the Balkans had long been known as a powder keg of Europe, there was an initial failure to realize that the looming conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia caused by the assassination would lead to dire consequences for the entire world.Clark argues that no one really wanted to go to war but that a combination of hawkish statesmen and bureaucratic politics in each of the major European capitals created the conditions for a general continental war. He describes the key players as “sleepwalkers, watchful but unseeing, haunted by dreams, yet blind to the reality of the h

Aug 8, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Yoon's economic challenge

By John BurtonIs Korea heading for an economic and financial crisis? There are some disturbing signs. The KOSPI stock index has been among the worst-performing in the world this year. Inflation was up 5.4 percent in May, the highest since 2008, and could reach 6 percent in the next few months due to soaring energy prices. The value of the won against the U.S. dollar has fallen to its lowest level since September 2009.The plunging value of the won means that the cost of imports, including dollar-denominated oil and natural gas, is becoming more expensive, which feeds inflation. One reason why the value of the won has fallen so dramatically is that foreign investors are exiting the stock market, selling their won-denominated assets for dollars. The process can feed on itself since Korean stocks are worth less to foreign investors as the won weakens further. The Bank of Korea has been trying to halt the slide in the won's value by buying Korean currency on international exchanges. But the most effective way to support the won would be to raise interest rates, which would attract foreign

Jul 11, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Cold War redux

By John BurtonNorth Korea stands to benefit from the war in Ukraine. Why? Because Russia may be more willing to ignore international sanctions and provide Pyongyang with what it needs: oil, grain and fertilizer among other crucial products.With North Korea facing a possible famine amid a recent COVID-19 outbreak, this aid would be instrumental in rescuing the country from any chance of collapse.Moscow previously voted for and adhered to U.N. sanctions on North Korea because it wanted, in part, to attract investment from South Korea and promote economic cooperation.Russian President Vladimir Putin once believed that South Korea could play a crucial role in helping achieve his goal of revitalizing the Russian Far East and helping build up his country's technology sector. He also sought Seoul's assistance in engaging in joint development projects in North Korea, including improving its railroad network, electricity grids and oil and gas pipelines in a bid to stabilize the Korean Peninsula. But few of these projects ever materialized, and relations between Moscow and Seoul began cooling

Jun 27, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Korea's dead-end birthrate

By John BurtonProbably the biggest challenge that Korea will face over the coming decades will be its demographic crisis, with a super-low birthrate and rapidly aging population. Analysts warn that Korea's shrinking population could have serious implications for the economy and national security. It will mean fewer workers to staff companies and fewer soldiers to guard the frontlines, while taking care of the elderly will become more expensive.Korea is now the Asian leader when it comes to low fertility rates, amounting to 0.8 percent of the population in 2020. This is less than in China, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.The main reason that the birthrate has cratered is that raising a family is expensive. The high cost of housing is forcing young couples to delay having children. The average Korean needs to spend nearly 17 years of their income to buy a home, much more than in other advanced Asian economies. On top of that comes expensive schooling in the form of private tutoring so that kids can get into the best universities and then the best jobs. Is there a way to break th

Jun 13, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Pyongyang's COVID gamble

By John BurtonNorth Korea has played the role of mini-me to China when it comes to COVID. Both countries have pursued a zero-COVID strategy over the past two years and both now are facing the disastrous results of that decision.After claiming that it had kept COVID largely at bay, China was recently forced to lock down its two biggest cities ― Shanghai and Beijing ― due to the spread of COVID, while maintaining tight border controls. The result is that the Chinese economy is likely to see a sharp slowdown in growth this year.North Korea's strategy has been even more draconian. It claimed that it kept out COVID by closing off the entire country to outside contacts since early 2020, although there was widespread skepticism that it had achieved zero COVID cases. Pyongyang has now admitted that the dam has burst, with at least 3 million COVID cases in the last few weeks. The highly contagious Omicron variant apparently made its way into North Korea due to the recent easing of trade restrictions with China, with the largest number of cases occurring around Pyongyang.In theory, North Korea

May 30, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Yoon's uncertain path

By John BurtonU.S. President Joe Biden's upcoming meeting with President Yoon Suk-yeol, scheduled for May 21, will test the hopes of the foreign policy establishment in Washington that Korea's new president is willing to align his country more closely with America.The election of Yoon was generally greeted warmly in Washington since he appears to check all the boxes when it comes to U.S. foreign policy goals. Unlike his predecessor Moon Jae-in, Yoon has taken a more hawkish response to North Korea's escalating missile and nuclear threats as he pledges to implement a “stronger deterrence.” He has also signaled that he could support American efforts to contain China.Yoon's administration is making much of the fact that it will be the earliest-ever summit between Seoul and Washington into the term of a new Korean president, only 11 days after Yoon's inauguration. Another perceived bonus point is that Biden is visiting Korea before Japan.But Washington officials appear to have overlooked the fact that Yoon is already unpopular even before he took office. That could matter if

May 16, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Going nuclear

By John BurtonPresident-elect Yoon Suk-yeol's decision to revive Korea's nuclear power program is a pragmatic one and reverses what some argue was an unrealistic policy by the Moon Jae-in administration to phase out nuclear energy. The blunt truth is that Korea would never be able to achieve its decarbonization goals without nuclear power, which now accounts for 30 percent of the country's electricity generation. President Moon had pledged last year that up to 70 percent of Korea's power would be provided by renewables, including solar and wind power, by 2050, up from 7 percent now. In the meantime, Korea would also rely on liquefied natural gas and carbon capture technology to cover the energy gap caused by the shutdown of nuclear reactors. This target was part of an ambitious plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. But critics warned that this goal was probably unfeasible and would lead to soaring electricity costs.Under Moon's plan, the number of nuclear plants in operation would be cut from 24 to 17 by 2034, which would reduce the amount of nuclear-generated electricity to 24

Apr 18, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Lame-duck Yoon

By John BurtonEven before he is inaugurated on May 10, Yoon Suk-yeol already has the appearance of a lame-duck president. Several factors are against him. First of all, he won by a razor-thin margin of 0.8 percent after a bitter presidential campaign that reflected the increased polarization of the Korean electorate.The divisive presidential campaign alienated broad swaths of the electorate, particularly among young women due to Yoon's anti-feminist rhetoric. His popularity is already at a historic low for an incoming president. Only 53 percent of the public has expressed confidence that Yoon will do well, compared with 64 percent for Park Geun-hye and 75 percent for Moon Jae-in at the beginning of their terms. Yoon's control over the People Power Party is also weak, leaving him vulnerable to intra-party feuding.Yoon's slim margin of victory will make it difficult for him to mobilize public support for his key campaign pledges. These include a more market-oriented approach to promoting economic growth, which progressives fear will only increase income inequality, while threatening to

Apr 4, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Korea and Ukraine

By John BurtonRussia's invasion of Ukraine is likely to have a major impact on Korea, aside from the sanctions that Seoul has already imposed on Moscow. Its earliest effect might be felt this week when Koreans go to the polls on Wednesday to elect their new president in a closely fought contest. The Russian attack could strengthen the argument of conservative candidate Yoon Suk-yeol that he is the best-positioned to protect South Korea against a nuclear-armed North Korea. Yoon has adopted a more hardline approach on North Korea than his liberal rival, Lee Jae-myung, who supports the inter-Korean reconciliation policy of President Moon Jae-in. Yoon is hoping that voters will agree that taking a tough stance on North Korea, which is aligned with Russia, is justified in light of the invasion. Yoon has provoked controversy with his proposal that additional units of the U.S. THAAD anti-missile system should be deployed in Korea and in suggesting that he might be willing to carry out a preemptive strike on North Korea if it continues nuclear and long-range missile tests. His "peace through

Mar 7, 2022By John Burton

John Burton

Read more

Yoon's revenge

Sleepwalking into war

Yoon's economic challenge

Cold War redux

Korea's dead-end birthrate

Pyongyang's COVID gamble

Yoon's uncertain path

Going nuclear

Lame-duck Yoon

Korea and Ukraine

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