Opinion - The Korea Times

North Korea's 'do moi'

By John BurtonSpeculation is growing that North Korea might emulate Vietnam's economic development model after its capital Hanoi was chosen as the location of the second Washington-Pyongyang summit. One of the rare points of agreement when it comes to North Korea is that Pyongyang appears serious in its intention to modernize its economy. The selection of Vietnam as the site of the upcoming summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea leader Kim Jong-un reinforces this message. Last year, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Vietnam just after a trip to Pyongyang and noted that Vietnam's market reforms, known as “doi moi,” served as a model of prosperity for North Korea. Kim is believed to be interested in studying authoritarian capitalist countries, including China, Vietnam and Singapore, the site of the last Trump-Kim summit, for lessons on how to revive the economy while keeping political control. China, of course, has long urged North Korea to undertake economic reforms, including creating Shenzhen-style special economic zones. Kim has visited Chi

Feb 10, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Moon's bad New Year

John BurtonKorean presidents start losing momentum or worse during their third year in office due to voter fatigue, botched policies or scandals. This year will be no exception for President Moon Jae-in.In his case, the economy is proving to be his most vulnerable point. After all, it was his promises to improve the economy, not his proposals about North Korea that got him elected in May 2017.His economic record is a tattered one. The number of employed persons rose by only 97,000 in 2018, the lowest increase since the global financial crisis a decade ago. The number of jobs in the private sector actually fell by 16,000, and the overall job figure only rose due to increased hiring by the government.Last year's unemployment rate of 3.8 percent was the highest since 2001 and the total number of unemployed persons approached levels last seen during the financial crisis of the late 1990s. The youth unemployment rate is at a 19-year high.These are embarrassing statistics for an administration that promised to boost economic growth and incomes. The poor economic performance has been blamed

Jan 20, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Pathway to peace

By John BurtonU.S. commentary about North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's New Year speech last week was largely skeptical. The prevailing tone was that Pyongyang was up to its usual tricks.It was suggested that Kim was seeking to split the U.S.-South Korean military alliance by praising inter-Korean reconciliation moves, while warning that Washington must do more to reduce tensions. He called for an end to military exercises between the U.S. and South Korea as well as “the introduction of war equipment including strategic assets from outside.” But what really grabbed the attention of U.S. commentators was Kim's implied threat “to find a new way for defending the sovereignty of the country” if the U.S. failed to ease economic sanctions and end other “hostile” measures. Such views play into a broader narrative often heard in Washington that U.S. President Donald Trump's bold outreach to North Korea has produced few results so far and could eventually fail, raising prospects of renewed military tensions.What has been largely lost in the critical commentar

Jan 7, 2019By John Burton

John Burton

Cause for Christmas cheer

By John BurtonIs the spirit of Christmas, which is supposed to be a time of “goodwill to all men,” influencing U.S.-North Korea negotiations?Stephen Biegun, the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea, last week appeared to offer a holiday gift to Pyongyang when he promised the U.S. will try to expedite humanitarian aid to North Korea.This came after recent reports that the Trump administration has been restricting some international relief agencies from delivering vital humanitarian aid to North Koreans as part of the broader international sanctions against Pyongyang over its nuclear and missile programs. Although humanitarian aid was supported to be exempt from the U.N. sanctions regime, strict interpretations of curbs on banking and shipping transactions with Pyongyang and a U.S. travel ban on Americans visiting North Korea have severely impacted the operations of most relief groups in the country.This has undermined Pyongyang's confidence about the sincerity of promises by U.S. President Donald Trump to improve relations with North Korea in return for the dismantl

Dec 24, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Twilight zone

By John Burton The nuclear talks with North Korea have fallen into a twilight zone ― a state of suspended animation ― six months after U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un met in Singapore.This state of affairs has not necessarily been a bad thing. We have seen tensions ease on the Korean Peninsula. The possibility of war has receded. North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test or missile launch in more than a year. Inter-Korean reconciliation has blossomed with President Moon Jae-in visiting North Korea and Kim Jong-un promising to respond with a return visit to Seoul. But can this situation last? Will it get better or worse? The nuclear talks have stalled largely over the issue whether the U.S. should first ease sanctions and establish normal relations before North Korea begins dismantling its nuclear program as demanded by Pyongyang or whether this sequence should be reversed as demanded by Washington. Talks involving U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the new U.S. North Korea envoy Stephen Biegun with senior North Korean negotiators have been susp

Dec 10, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Seoul vs. DC

By John BurtonThe headline does not refer to disagreements between the governments in Seoul and Washington, D.C., over North Korean policy. Rather it describes the running argument between my Korean wife and I about the respective merits of the two cities since we moved from Korea to the U.S. two years ago.If you asked my wife, she would say she preferred to live in Washington. She enjoys the green suburban atmosphere of Arlington, Virginia, which lies just across the Potomac River from the nation's capital. Arlington is becoming to Washington what Gangnam has become to Seoul ― an area of rising prosperity. It is a trend that will accelerate now that Amazon has announced that it will put one of its second headquarters operations in the Crystal City area of the town. We live in a four-room townhouse that is much more spacious than our previous, rather cramped apartment in Seoul, although the rent is not much more. Commuting into D.C. is a quick six stops away on the metro. Moreover, my wife still has all comforts of home close by. She can buy Korean food products, from ramen and kimch

Nov 26, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Spinning wheels

By John BurtonCars and semiconductors are the two industrial stalwarts of the Korean economy. Both are now under threat. Semiconductor exports could be hurt as the Sino-American trade war escalates since many of the chips are exported to China to be installed in electronic products that are then shipped to the U.S.Korea's car industry may be even more vulnerable. This was highlighted when Hyundai Motor, the country's largest automaker, reported that operating profits in the third quarter plunged by 76 percent from a year ago to 289 billion won ($257 million), its lowest level since 2010. This reflects the industry's heavy dependence on exports, especially those to North America and the Middle East, where demand is weakening. These two markets account for half of Korea's car sales overseas. Exports to Europe and emerging markets have not made up the difference. Domestic car production has already contracted this year as a result.The news on the export front could have been worse if the Trump administration had abandoned the KORUS free trade agreement. In the end, the U.S. president de

Nov 11, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Don't speak Korean

By John BurtonXenophobia is nothing new in U.S. politics, but it appears to be reaching new lows in the latest congressional campaigns ahead of the Nov. 6 elections. One example is a white Democrat candidate in Buffalo, New York, who has been attacked by his Republican opponent for speaking Korean, implying he is un-American.Nate McMurray is a lawyer who graduated from the prestigious University of California Hastings College of Law in San Francisco and studied at the Constitutional Court of Korea under a Fulbright scholarship. He taught U.S. law at the Judicial Research and Training Institute in Seoul. He has also represented U.S. companies in Asia, worked with Barun Law in Seoul and another foreign law firm in China, and served as a legal adviser to Samsung.McMurray earlier this year released a video on social media, where he introduced himself and bowed before the camera before speaking in Korean about his hopes for peace between the two Koreas after the inter-Korean summits.His Republican opponent, Congressman Chris Collins, decided to use the video in an attack ad, which feature

Oct 29, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Korea's economic cul-de-sac

By John BurtonKorea is likely to be among the most vulnerable economies in Asia if the Sino-American trade war escalates. While Korea's economic strength rests on exports, this also proves to be its biggest weakness when global trade slows.Although the country recently signed a revised free trade agreement with the U.S., China remains its biggest overseas market and bilateral trade flows would be hurt as Beijing and Washington square off over trade.Korea has long struggled to increase domestic demand as an engine of economic growth to balance its reliance on exports. But this has proved difficult for several reasons, including high household debt, a rigid labor market and the parlous condition of small- and medium-sized enterprises.China is likely better able to withstand a trade war with the U.S. than Korea since it has successfully shifted away from an over-reliance on exports, whose share of annual output has fallen from a third to a fifth over the past decade as China's large domestic market continues to expand due to massive investment. China's move up the industrial value-added

Oct 15, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Tag team

By John BurtonWhen Moon Jae-in was elected Korean President last year, the general consensus among most pundits in Washington, D.C., was that relations between him and U.S. President Donald Trump would be tense, mirroring the troubled relationship between the administrations of the liberal Roh Moo-hyun and conservative George W. Bush in the 2000s.But like many predictions made by Korea experts in the U.S. over the past 18 months, this has turned out to be wrong. The two leaders have become a tag team in trying to coax North Korea's Kim Jong-un to end his nuclear and missile programs.Look on how the two have coordinated their moves over the last several weeks. First, Moon goes for three days to Pyongyang to hold his third summit with Kim. The two leaders pledge to deepen inter-Korean ties with transport projects, and reduce military tensions by moving back border posts among other measures. Moon was accompanied by leading South Korean business leaders who expressed interest in investing in North Korea. Speaking in New York last week where he attended the annual U.N. General Assembly m

Oct 1, 2018By John Burton

John Burton

Read more

North Korea's 'do moi'

Moon's bad New Year

Pathway to peace

Cause for Christmas cheer

Twilight zone

Seoul vs. DC

Spinning wheels

Don't speak Korean

Korea's economic cul-de-sac

Tag team

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