North Korea expected to continue missile tests after South's presidential election: experts
North Korea test-fired a hypersonic missile, Wednesday, in this photo released by the country's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) the day after. KCNA report said the latest test was a success. North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un did not attend the launch. Yonhap
By Jung Da-min
North Korea is expected to continue its missile tests this year, regardless of who is elected to be the next president of South Korea in the election set for March 9, according to North Korea watchers, Thursday.
This forecast came a day after the North's state-run Academy of Defense Science test-fired a hypersonic missile the day before, according to Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Thursday. It said the missile launch was part of efforts to fulfill the country's national task of modernizing strategic armed force capabilities under its five-year plan for the strategic arms sector, first presented at the eighth congress of the country's ruling Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) in January of last year.
Pyongyang's latest missile launch was the second test of the country's hypersonic missile, following the first launch of the Hwasong-8 in late last September, although the tested missiles had different form factors.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said he believes North Korea has made its message clear, that it will continue its weapons testings, including the hypersonic missile, according to its own plan and timeline, regardless of the international geopolitical situation.
"North Korea cares about China's response, but Beijing did not really criticize Pyongyang's latest missile test. This is like North Korea getting a 'green light' to continue its weapons tests. Unless North Korea conducts a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile or stages missile tests too often in a short period of time, China is likely to stand back and watch," Park said.
"North Korea is likely to continue its missile tests regardless of the results of the South's next presidential election, as they see it as an independent issue. The North's negotiation strategy toward the South's new administration would be presented in another way. If the candidate of the ruling liberal bloc is elected, North Korea is likely to insist on its previous stance that the South and the U.S. should first withdraw what it calls hostile policies against it. If the candidate of the conservative bloc becomes the next president, it is expected to stage a certain level of provocation to see the response of the new administration."
On the left is the photo released by North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Thursday, of the country's test of a hypersonic missile conducted the day before. On the right is the photo of the country's test of the Hwasong-8 hypersonic missile, Sept. 28, 2021. Yonhap
Moon Sung-mook, a senior researcher at the Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, also said North Korea is expected to continue missile and other weapons tests regardless of who becomes the next president of South Korea, as it sees the development of hypersonic missiles as an important task in its five-year armed forces plan.
"In terms of developing new weapons, there is no such concept of 100-percent completion in development, which means upgrades and tests of the weapons should be followed. … As North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un has said that the country is developing many different weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons and a nuclear-powered submarine, the country is expected to continue missile and other weapons tests," Moon said.
"North Korea is expected to stick to its existing stance that they will keep going on their way in developing weapons for the country's self-defense, and their weapons tests are not aimed at provoking other neighboring countries."
According to the North's KCNA, Pyongyang has reconfirmed the flight control and stability of the missile in the active-flight stage, as well as assessed the performance of the new lateral movement technique applied to the detached hypersonic gliding warhead.
The North's newly tested hypersonic missile had earlier been revealed in the country's Defense Development Exhibition held last October. While the hypersonic Hwasong-8 missile tested in September of last year deployed a delta-winged body, the one tested this time deployed a conical shaped body.
Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said he believes that the Hwasong-8 missile had flown at Mach 3 and failed to reach the hypersonic speed of Mach 5 or faster in the September test, and that North Korea had conducted the latest test with an improved missile form factor.