By Jun Ji-hye
North Korea is likely to conduct another nuclear test next month as signs abound that its preparations have entered their final stage, according to military officials and experts Wednesday.
The test could possibly come around the summit between the U.S. and China scheduled for early April or the 105th anniversary of founder Kim Il-sung’s birthday, April 15, they said.
U.S.-based North Korea monitoring website, 38 North, said Tuesday that commercial satellite imagery of the Punggye-ri nuclear test site, taken March 25 showed the continued presence of three to four vehicles or equipment trailers at the North Portal, an entrance to the underground site.
The website noted that the texture of the ground suggested that communications cables may have been laid, a strong indication that preparations were in their final stage.
The North would likely use such equipment to initiate the test, and process and collect data from the explosion, it said.
“The combination of these factors strongly suggests that test preparations are well underway, including the installation of instrumentation,” it said. “There is no significant activity at the other areas of the test site. The lack of activity may mean that test preparations are in their final stages.”
38 North added that Pyongyang is also showing signs of activity usually associated with nuclear reprocessing designed to harvest weapons-grade plutonium from spent reactor fuel for nuclear weapons, citing satellite photos of the North’s Yongbyon nuclear complex.
For its part, the North’s state media, the Korea Central News Agency, claimed Tuesday that its possession of nuclear weapons was the last bastion of justice in the world, presenting itself as the guardian of world peace and security.
If the North conducts the test, it will be its sixth one after the first one in 2006 and four more in 2009, 2013 and January and September of last year.
Military officials and analysts are also paying attention to the possibility of the North launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the near future. The regime has conducted high-thrust rocket engine tests three times in recent weeks.
The North has never flight-tested its road-mobile KN-08 or KN-14 ICBMs. Still, they are believed to be capable of flying more than 10,000 kilometers, a range sufficient to reach the U.S. mainland.
Another U.S. think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said Monday that the reclusive state is 50 percent likely to conduct a nuclear test or a missile launch in the next 30 days. It made the prediction through a big data study.
“The prediction is showing that within the next 14 days the likelihood of North Korean WMD activity is 22 percent while within the next 30 days the likelihood of such activity is 50 percent,” CSIS said in a report, adding that WMD activity refers to nuclear or missile tests.
The report said April will see a “high chance of North Korean actions.”
The Ministry of National Defense said the North is capable of carrying out a nuclear or missile test at any time once its leadership decides and orders to do so.
“We see the possibility of North Korea carrying out a nuclear test or launching ballistic missiles, so we are continuously monitoring and tracing developments in the North,” spokesman Moon Sang-gyun said.
The U.S. State Department declined comment, but called for restraint.
“The DPRK’s continued defiance of its UNSCR obligations only serves to increase the international community’s resolve to counter the DPRK’s prohibited weapons of mass destruction programs,” spokeswoman Katina Adams said, referring to U.N. Security Council resolutions.
“We also call on the DPRK to refrain from provocative actions and inflammatory rhetoric that threaten international peace and stability, and to make the strategic choice to fulfill its international obligations and commitments and return to serious talks,”she said.
Russian Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Timonin also called on all relevant countries, Wednesday, to exercise restraint from any action that could heighten tension on the Korean Peninsula amid growing anxiety over imminent provocations.
In a forum held in central Seoul, Ambassador Timonin also underlined the need for the resumption of the long-suspended six-party talks aimed at resolving the nuclear stalemate.