Nam Hyun-woo has worked as a staff writer at The Korea Times since 2013, mostly covering business and politics. He currently belongs to the Business Desk where he covers topics such as emerging tech, AI, ICT and Korea's chaebol community. Prior to joining the team, he was the paper's correspondent for the presidential office of Korea during the Yoon Suk Yeol and Moon Jae-in administrations.
Strengthening deterrence against NK threats to top agenda at Yoon-Biden summit
South Korean and U.S. Air Force planes stage air drills, involving a B-52H strategic bomber, over the Korean Peninsula, March 6. Courtesy of Ministry of National Defense
By Nam Hyun-woo
Yoon to depart for Washington Monday afternoon
By Nam Hyun-woo
Strengthening the U.S.' extended deterrence for South Korea is expected to top the agenda of a summit between Presidents Yoon Suk Yeol and Joe Biden, as attention grows on whether Seoul can secure a presence in Washington's nuclear planning for the Korean Peninsula, according to officials and analysts, Sunday.
Yoon will depart for Washington D.C., Monday, for a seven-day state visit to the U.S. The main theme of the visit is celebrating the 70th anniversary of the alliance between Seoul and Washington, touting the accomplishments of the two nations' ironclad ties.
Separate from celebrating the anniversary, there will be debates and negotiations on how Seoul can secure stronger extended deterrence from Washington to counter North Korea's escalating nuclear and missile threats. Also, there are hopes that the U.S. may make conciliatory gestures for South Korean companies in regards to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the CHIPS Act subsidy programs that have been viewed here as favoring American businesses.
Multiple diplomatic sources and experts said that Seoul has been “excessively focusing on” strengthening the U.S. extended deterrence for South Korea. Extended deterrence refers to a U.S. commitment to protect its allies by threatening to choose a nuclear response in the event of an attack on them.
In the wake of the progress in the North's nuclear programs, Yoon has been seeking the U.S. to strengthen the level of extended deterrence, as South Korea is not considering developing its own nuclear weapons or deploying U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil.
In a recent interview with Reuters, Yoon dropped hints at how the strengthened extended deterrence will look.
“In terms of responding to a powerful nuclear attack, I think stronger measures than what NATO has should be prepared,” Yoon said.
A senior official at Seoul's presidential office also said, “Even though we don't deploy nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, the consultation (on nuclear deterrence between South Korea and the U.S.) should be deeper and wider.”
Washington also implied that additional steps will be made during the summit to underscore the extended deterrence. A senior U.S. official told Reuters Friday that Biden will be “talking substantial steps to underscore that, to update it, to make clear that everyone has little doubt of our commitment to standing with South Korea.”
Given the comments that the extended deterrence supporting Seoul should be stronger than that of NATO, experts assume that South Korea will likely ask for its participation in the nuclear planning stage for counterattacks.
“NATO's nuclear sharing policy allows its members, such as Belgium and Italy, to host U.S. nuclear weapons, but this is not the case for South Korea, because both Seoul and Washington are against deploying nuclear weapons on the former's soil,” a Seoul-based analyst said, asking not to be named.
“In that case, what can be 'deeper' than NATO's nuclear sharing policy is allowing South Korea to participate in the nuclear planning stage when Seoul is attacked and the U.S. is launching a counterattack.”
Although NATO's nuclear sharing policy allows some member countries to host U.S. nuclear weapons, their use is a subject of consultation between members, thus making them share political responsibility and risks.
To enable stronger nuclear cooperation than that of NATO, Yoon is anticipated to persuade Biden to make a major update to the current OPLAN 5015, which lays out a series of procedures to handle an all-out war with the North, so that the two countries can jointly plan nuclear scenarios and select a nuclear attack target if the North strikes.
“Although NATO's nuclear sharing looks strong because U.S. nuclear weapons are deployed in multiple member countries, the depth off their consultation is shallower than it looks,” said the senior official at Seoul's presidential office. “We believe the upcoming summit will be a chance to strengthen the joint defense posture and extended deterrence between the two countries.”
Along with the countermeasures on North Korea's nuclear ambitions, the two leaders are anticipated to talk about the Ukraine war and tensions across the Taiwan Strait, which are sensitive issues affecting Seoul's relations with Russia and China, respectively.
The U.S. National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby said in a press briefing, Friday, (local time) that he has “no doubt” the two leaders will talk about the Ukraine War and challenges posed by China.
Yoon has drawn thorny responses from China and Russia, respectively, after expressing his view during a recent interview that South Korea may provide military aid to Ukraine, and Seoul absolutely opposes attempts to change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait by force.
This Nov. 13, 2022 file photo shows South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden holding a bilateral summit at a hotel in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on the sidelines of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit. Yonhap
Further exemptions on IRA, CHIPS Act
On the economic front, South Korea and the U.S. are anticipated to sign many memoranda of understanding (MOUs) to strengthen their partnerships in advanced technologies during Yoon's stay in the U.S.
However, granting greater exemptions for South Korean companies in regards to the IRA and the CHIPS Act subsidy programs are not likely to be the main agenda of the Yoon-Biden summit. The IRA is affecting South Korean carmakers' sales in the U.S., while the CHIPS Act subsidy programs require South Korean chipmakers to share sensitive information and excess profits with the U.S. in return for subsidies.
“It doesn't seem like there will be a specific discussion about the IRA or the CHIPS Act subsidies at this summit,” senior presidential secretary for economic affairs Choi Sang-mok told reporters. “However, if the leaders deem it necessary, there may be some discussions on comprehensive cooperation plans in a broader sense.”
Choi's comments are in line with the Yoon government's perspective that most uncertainties that South Korean companies may face due to the IRA and the CHIPS Act were addressed following the provisions and guidelines of the two Acts.
During a press briefing last week, Choi said the damage to South Korean carmakers' U.S. sales is “not as serious as feared” following the recent provisions of the IRA.
Although chances are low for breakthrough measures related to the two acts, hopes remain that the U.S. may make a conciliatory gesture during the Yoon-Biden summit.
“The leaders' firm determination toward the alliance has always worked in the direction of reducing uncertainties for Korean companies,” Choi said.